| | | ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/11/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/11/21 | 4030. 46 | 49.40 | 4027. 40 | 48.94 | 924. 00 | 11696.00 | 921.93 | 11685.00 | | (本表数 | 2025/11/20 | ...

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/11/24 | 价 格 表 现 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | 伦敦铂 | 伦敦钯 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | 最新 | 4072.85 | 48.91 | 1545.00 | 1404.00 | 58.06 | 10675.50 | | 变化 | -17.75 | -1.94 | -12.00 | -4.00 | -0.94 | -83.50 | | 品种 | 美元指数 | 欧元兑美元 | 英镑兑美元 | 美元兑日元 | 美国10年期TIPS | | | 最新 | 100.22 | 1.15 | 1.31 | 157.46 | 1.82 | | | 变化 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | | 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4126.95 with a change of 66.10 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 52.20 with a change of 1.90 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1534.00 with a change of -3.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1411.00 with a change of 26.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 60.74 with a change of 0.00 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10742.00 with a change of 60.00 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 100.12 with a change of 0.53 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.15 with a change of -0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.31 with a change of -0.01 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest rate is 157.18 with a change of 1.66 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.85 with a change of 0.00 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory's latest value is 14386.29 with a change of -93.47 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory's latest value is 547.69 with a change of -15.98 [1] - Gold ETF持仓's latest value is 1043.72 with a change of 2.29 [1] - Silver ETF持仓's latest value is 15226.88 with a change of 8.46 [1] - SGE Silver inventory's latest value is 830.31 with a change of 0.00 [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction's latest value is 2 with a change of 1.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction's latest value is 1 with a change of -1.00 [1] Data Source - The data in the above charts are from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [4]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4060.85, with a change of -11.65 [2] - London Silver's latest price is 50.30, with a change of -0.76 [2] - London Platinum's latest price is 1537.00, with a change of 5.00 [2] - London Palladium's latest price is 1385.00, with a change of 0.00 [2] - WTI Crude's latest price is 60.74, with a change of 0.83 [2] - LME Copper's latest price is 10682.00, with a change of -130.00 [2] Group 2: Trading Data - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1041.43, with a change of 0.00 [3] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver deferred fee payment direction is 2, with a change of 0.00 [3] - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold deferred fee payment direction is 1, with a change of 0.00 [3] Group 3: Other Information - The data sources of the above charts are Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For precious metals, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center in the long - term, the unclear prospect of interest rate cuts in December and short - term technical weakness suggest a possible short - term adjustment. Attention should be paid to the retracement of the 200 - day moving average [3]. - For copper, as the delivery date approaches, the registered warrant volume has rapidly increased. The spot price of electrolytic copper has declined, the premium has strengthened, and the purchasing sentiment has increased but not significantly. The futures price has shown narrow - range fluctuations and lacks driving forces [15]. - For aluminum, the expected tightening of overseas electrolytic aluminum supply has given rise to a bullish sentiment among funds, leading to an influx of capital into Shanghai aluminum futures and an increase in prices. However, downstream demand may not support such high prices, so Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Alumina has seen price - increasing orders due to environmental production restrictions and short - covering, but it still follows an oversupply logic. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up characteristics with Shanghai aluminum and has strong downside support [33][34]. - For zinc, the expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled down, and the smelting sector's willingness to reduce or halt production in November has increased due to intense competition for ores and a significant decline in TC. The impact needs to be observed through inventory changes in November. There is a possibility of inventory reduction if demand remains stable. Currently, there are significant differences between bulls and bears, and the bottom space can be observed at the end of the month [57]. - For nickel, the expectation of interest rate cuts in December is uncertain, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs has affected risk preferences. Nickel ore prices may remain strong in the short term due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the impact of typhoons on production and shipping. The prices of nickel - iron and stainless steel have declined due to weak downstream demand, and both are experiencing inventory accumulation [73]. - For tin, although there has been some resumption of production in Yunnan, the supply is still weaker than demand due to the under - expected resumption of production in Wa State and a sharp reduction in concentrate imports. Shanghai tin is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with support predicted around 276,000 yuan [88]. - For lithium carbonate, the price has far exceeded expectations, and downstream buyers have no intention to replenish inventory. There is an expectation of a decline in production in December. Technically, the price has broken through the 90,000 - yuan mark and reached 95,000 yuan, posing a high risk for chasing the price. There is an over - rising sentiment, and the risk of chasing the price should be vigilant [104]. - For the silicon industry chain, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is generally weak, and it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The polysilicon industry chain is experiencing production cuts and inventory accumulation, with a weak fundamental outlook and wide - range weak fluctuations [115]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Short - term adjustment possible, long - term upward trend supported by central bank purchases and investment demand [3]. - **Market Data**: Included price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, their ratios, and relationships with the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, and long - term fund holdings [4][8][11]. Copper - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of copper have declined, with different degrees of decline in various regions. The premium has also decreased [18]. - **Futures Market**: Futures prices have declined, and the trading volume and open interest have shown certain trends. The registered warrant volume has increased significantly [16][19][29]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import losses have increased, and the TC of copper concentrates has remained unchanged [24]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Spread**: The scrap - to - refined spread has decreased, indicating a reduced price advantage of scrap copper [28]. Aluminum - **Futures Prices**: The prices of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures have declined to varying degrees [35]. - **Price Spreads**: There are differences in price spreads between different contracts of aluminum and alumina, as well as between aluminum and alumina [38][40]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of aluminum in different regions have declined, and the basis has also changed [44]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum has changed, and the alumina warehouse receipt inventory has remained stable [51]. Zinc - **Futures Prices**: The prices of Shanghai zinc futures have generally declined, except for the second - consecutive contract which has increased slightly [58]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of zinc have declined, and the premium has changed significantly [66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc has increased [70]. Nickel - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel have declined, and the trading volume has increased while the open interest has decreased. The warehouse receipt volume has increased [74]. - **Downstream Market**: The prices of nickel - iron and stainless steel have declined, and the downstream demand is weak. Both are experiencing inventory accumulation [73]. Tin - **Futures Market**: The prices of Shanghai tin and LME tin have changed slightly, with Shanghai tin showing a slight decline [89]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of tin and tin concentrates have declined slightly, and the prices of solder products have remained stable [93]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai tin has increased, while the LME tin inventory has decreased [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Prices**: The prices of lithium carbonate futures have generally increased compared to the previous week, but there has been a slight decline on the day [105]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various lithium - related products have increased, and the price differences between different grades have also changed [109]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the social inventory of lithium carbonate have decreased [113]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions have changed slightly, and the basis has increased. The futures prices have declined [115]. - **Polysilicon and Downstream Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips, and components have shown certain trends, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased [123][133].

Price Performance - London Platinum's latest price is $1532.00, with a change of -$70.00 [4] - London Palladium's latest price is $1385.00, with a change of -$78.00 [4] - LME Copper's latest price is $10812.00, with a change of -$65.50 [4] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 99.53, with a change of 0.25 [4] - The latest exchange rate of Euro against US Dollar is 1.16, with no change [4] - The latest exchange rate of Pound against US Dollar is 1.32, with no change [4] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar against Japanese Yen is 155.25, with a change of 0.72 [4] Trading Data - The latest inventory of SHFE Silver is 569.36, with a change of -7.53 [5] - The latest gold ETF holdings are 1041.43, with a change of -2.57 [5] - The latest silver ETF holdings are 15218.42, with no change [5] - The latest inventory of SGE Silver is 830.31, with no change [5] - The deferred fee payment direction of SGE Silver is 1, with no change [5] - The deferred fee payment direction of SGE Gold is 2, with no change [5]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market experienced a significant decline, with gold prices dropping by 2.69% to $4058.79 per ounce, and COMEX gold falling by 3.24% to $4058.6 per ounce [2] - Silver prices also saw a notable decrease, with spot silver down 3.35% to $50.536 per ounce, and COMEX silver down 5.28% to $50.365 per ounce [2] - Other precious metals such as platinum and palladium also faced declines, with NYMEX platinum dropping over 4% and spot palladium falling more than 3% [2] Group 2: Global Gold Demand Trends - According to the World Gold Council's Q3 2025 Global Gold Demand Trends Report, global gold demand reached a record high of 1313 tons in Q3, with a total value of $146 billion [3] - Factors driving gold demand include geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and uncertainties in global trade policies, which have increased investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The report indicates that gold prices have the potential for further increases, supported by a weakening dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - CITIC Securities suggests that the ongoing inflow into ETFs will provide significant support for precious metal prices in a liquidity-friendly environment [4] - The long-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains unchanged, with expectations for gold and silver prices to rebound after a phase of adjustment [4] - The global market is currently experiencing a broad adjustment, with major stock indices in Asia-Pacific and the U.S. showing declines of over 1% [4]

Market Overview - US stock indices opened significantly lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.12%, Nasdaq down 1.16%, and S&P 500 down 0.94% as of 22:37 Beijing time [1] - Major US tech stocks led the decline, with the Tech Giants Index down 1.15%. Tesla fell over 2%, while Nvidia, Google, and META each dropped over 1% as of 22:38 Beijing time [2] Precious Metals - Spot gold experienced a sharp decline of 2.83%, while spot silver plummeted 3.53%. COMEX gold fell by 3.4%, and COMEX silver dropped over 5% [2] - Current prices for precious metals include: - London Gold: 4053.09 (-2.83%) - London Silver: 50.44 (-3.53%) - COMEX Gold: 4051.90 (-3.40%) - COMEX Silver: 50.275 (-5.44%) [3] Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Outlook - Market analysts attribute the significant downturn in overseas stock and precious metals markets to several factors: 1. Hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials have reduced expectations for a rate cut in December [5] 2. Ongoing government shutdown in the US has led to missing economic data, complicating monetary policy decisions [5] 3. Increasing concerns regarding an artificial intelligence bubble [5] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in December, with current market expectations placing the probability of a cut below 50% [5] - Notable comments from Federal Reserve officials include: - Mary Daly stated it is too early to determine if a rate cut will occur before the December meeting, emphasizing the importance of upcoming data [6] - Neel Kashkari expressed a wait-and-see approach due to economic resilience and high inflation [6] - Beth Hammack raised concerns that further rate cuts could undermine the Fed's credibility in achieving the 2% inflation target [7]

Group 1: Price Performance - London Platinum's latest price is $1580.00, with a change of -$12.00 [2] - London Palladium's latest price is $1439.00, with a change of -$7.00 [2] - LME Copper's latest price is $10963.00, with a change of $114.00 [2] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 99.18, with a change of -0.30 [2] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.16, with a change of 0.00 [2] - The latest exchange rate of Pound to US Dollar is 1.32, with a change of 0.01 [2] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 154.52, with a change of -0.29 [2] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 14815.08, with a change of -58.35 [3] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 584.01, with a change of 0.95 [3] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1048.93, with a change of 2.29 [3] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15173.28, with a change of 84.65 [3] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1, with a change of -1.00 [3] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2, with a change of 0.00 [3]

Group 1 - Precious metals are experiencing a significant price surge, with silver prices reaching a new historical high of over $54 per ounce on November 13, 2023, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) silver contract hitting 12,639 yuan per kilogram [1][4] - The recent rally in precious metals is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors, including concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy amid government shutdowns and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Russia and Ukraine [3][4] - Silver has shown a remarkable performance compared to gold, with the gold-silver ratio indicating a strong market preference for silver, suggesting its upward potential [3][4] Group 2 - From September to October 2023, global precious metals saw a substantial increase, with silver prices rising by 53.16% on SHFE, 64.73% on COMEX, and 68.4% in the London Metal Exchange (LME) [4] - The surge in silver prices is driven by extreme shortages in overseas silver supply, influenced by various factors including tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and increased demand from India [4][5] - Global silver demand is projected to reach 35,500 tons in 2024, with industrial demand accounting for 61.8%, particularly from the photovoltaic and electronics sectors [5][6] Group 3 - The supply of silver is expected to remain constrained due to stable mining output over the past two decades and declining ore grades, which increase production costs [6][7] - The demand for silver is expanding, particularly in the electronics sector, with a projected increase of 4.5% in 2024, while investment demand is becoming a key driver for price increases [6][7] - Despite a potential decline in silver jewelry consumption due to economic factors, the overall market for silver jewelry and utensils is expected to remain stable, with a shift in consumer preference from gold to silver [6][7]