Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Report - Date: June 5, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price of tin is affected by multiple factors, including the expected and actual production of Burmese tin mines, tariff policies, and the development cycle of the semiconductor sector. There are both bullish and bearish factors, and the market situation is complex [3][5][7] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 257,940 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 21.41%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 57.0% [2] - In the daily tin futures盘面 data, the prices of Shanghai Tin Main, Shanghai Tin Continuous One, and Shanghai Tin Continuous Three remain unchanged, with a daily change of 0 yuan and a daily change rate of 0%. The price of LME Tin 3M is 31,450 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 905 US dollars and a daily increase rate of 2.96%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.2, with a decrease of 0.12 and a decrease rate of 1.44% [6] 2. Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops (long spot exposure), it is recommended to short the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 100%, and sell the call option SN2507C275000 at around 2,000 yuan with a hedging ratio of 25% [2] Raw Material Management - When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases (short spot exposure), it is recommended to long the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a hedging ratio of 50%, and sell the put option SN2507P245000 at around 2,000 yuan with a hedging ratio of 25% [2] 3. News and Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in the expansion cycle, and the actual production of Burmese tin mine复产 being lower than expected [7] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies, Burmese tin mine复产, and the slowdown of the expansion speed of the semiconductor sector, which is gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5][6] 4. Spot Data - In the weekly tin spot data, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 255,500 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 9,300 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 3.51%. The 1 tin premium is 1,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 600 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 150%. The prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates and various types of solder bars also show different degrees of decline [10][13] 5. Import and Processing Data - The latest value of tin import profit and loss is - 9,469.37 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,123.15 yuan and an increase rate of 13.46%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [15] 6. Inventory Data - In the daily tin inventory data, the total warehouse receipt quantity of tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,228 tons, with a daily decrease of 292 tons and a decrease rate of 3.88%. The LME tin inventory remains unchanged at 2,605 tons [19]