Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that tin prices have shown a slight increase due to macroeconomic factors, particularly expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have boosted valuations in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - The main tin futures contract price reached 274,000 yuan per ton, with spot prices showing a premium of 200 yuan per ton [1] - The inventory levels at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly to around 7,700 tons, while LME inventories rose to 2,385 tons [1] Group 2 - The article notes that the import losses for tin remain stable, and the processing fees for tin ore are also holding steady at 40% [1] - The overall industrial fundamentals are stable, with a tight supply situation expected to persist in September, although weak demand has not significantly impacted prices [1] - Tin prices are anticipated to continue fluctuating around 274,000 yuan per ton, with a projected trading range of 270,000 to 277,000 yuan per ton [1]

锡产业风险管理日报 2025/09/12 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 271260 | 245000-263000 | 12.82% | 21.4% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2511C275000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪锡主力期货合约 | ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 5, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to shut down for maintenance from August 30 for 45 days as expected. In August 2025, China's refined tin production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly affected by some enterprises' shutdown for maintenance and the decrease in tin concentrate imports in July. In the short term, with stable macro conditions, despite demand pressure, tin prices may rise slightly further due to tight supply, with the upper target tentatively set at 276,000 yuan per ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price of tin is 272,020 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan, the current volatility is 13.06%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.5% [2] - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, recommend selling 75% of Shanghai tin main - contract futures at around 275,000 yuan and selling 25% of call options (SN2511C275000) when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, recommend buying 50% of Shanghai tin main - contract futures at around 230,000 yuan and selling 25% of put options (SN2511P260000) when volatility is appropriate [2] 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: - **Domestic**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin main contract, Shanghai tin continuous - one, and Shanghai tin continuous - three are all stable, while the price of LME tin 3M is 34,425 US dollars per ton, down 195 US dollars or 0.56% [6] - **Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.89, up 0.04 or 0.51% [6] - **Spot Data**: - **Prices**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 40% and 60% tin concentrates, and some solder products have increased slightly on a weekly basis, while some other products are stable [10] - **Imports and Processing Fees**: Tin import profit and loss is - 18,752.84 yuan per ton, down 7.34% daily, and tin ore processing fees are stable [10] 4. Tin Inventory Data - **Domestic Inventory**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,495 tons, up 1.19% daily, with different changes in Guangdong and Shanghai [13] - **LME Inventory**: The total LME tin inventory is 2,195 tons, up 0.92% [13]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 4, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to shut down for maintenance from August 30 for 45 days. In August 2025, China's refined tin production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, affected by enterprise maintenance and lower tin concentrate imports in July. In the short term, with a stable macro - environment, tin prices may rise slightly further, with the upper target set at 276,000 yuan per ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price is 273,120 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan, the current volatility is 12.99%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.4% [2] - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when volatility is appropriate [2] 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Data (Daily)**: - Shanghai Tin main contract: 273,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract: 273,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract: 273,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - LME Tin 3M: 34,620 dollars/ton, down 115 dollars (- 0.33%) [6] - Shanghai - London ratio: 7.85, up 0.08 (1.03%) [6] - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot: 273,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.4%) [10] - 1 tin premium: 0 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (- 100%) [10] - 40% tin concentrate: 261,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.42%) [10] - 60% tin concentrate: 265,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.42%) [10] - Other tin - related products also showed varying degrees of price changes [10] 4. Tin Import and Inventory Data - **Import and Processing Data (Daily)**: - Tin import profit and loss: - 20,238.59 yuan/ton, up 143.67 yuan (- 0.7%) [12] - 40% tin ore processing fee: 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [12] - 60% tin ore processing fee: 10,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [12] - **Inventory Data (Daily)**: - Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts: 7,407 tons, up 144 tons (1.98%) [14] - LME tin inventory: 2,175 tons, up 20 tons (0.93%) [14]

南华期货锡风险管理日报 source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2511C275000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 买入 | 50% | 230000附近 | | | | | 卖出看跌期权 | SN2511P260000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | source： 南华研究 南华观点： 锡价在近期的走强主要得益于供给端偏紧。云锡预计将从8月30日开始停产检修，时间为45天，在预期内。 2025年08月，我国精炼锡的产量较前一月出现了环比下降，而从同比数据 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the tin industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The rise in tin prices on Monday was a passive increase, not closely related to its fundamentals. The speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman at the global central bank meeting lifted the valuation of the non - ferrous metal sector, and the over - rise may be corrected within the next trading day. The continuous two - week decline in tin ingot social inventory may provide upward momentum for tin prices. Tin solder enterprises have a good start - up situation and are willing to take delivery when the price is below 270,000 yuan per ton [3]. - There are both利多 and利空 factors in the tin market.利多 factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's复产 being less than expected.利空 factors include the recurrence of tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [4][5]. Key Points by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 269,570 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. - In the tin futures market, the prices of沪锡主力,沪锡连一, and沪锡连三 are 269,570 yuan/ton, 269,890 yuan/ton, and 270,160 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of伦锡3M is 33,845 dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 370 dollars and a daily increase rate of 1.11%. The沪伦比 is 7.86, with a daily decrease of 0.11 and a daily decrease rate of 1.38% [2][6]. Risk Management Suggestions - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of沪锡主力期货 contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2511C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate. - For raw material management, when the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of沪锡主力期货 contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2511P260000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Spot Market - In the weekly spot market, the prices of various tin - related products have increased. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot is 269,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,900 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.09%. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 257,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,900 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.14% [12]. Import and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,766.65 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 144.42 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.87%. The 40% and 60% tin ore processing fees are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [16]. Inventory - In the daily inventory data, the total warehouse receipt quantity of tin is 7,032 tons, with a daily decrease of 21 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.3%. The LME tin inventory is 1,785 tons, with a daily increase of 45 tons and a daily increase rate of 2.59% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The tin price rose slightly in the recent period and then declined. Both macro and fundamental factors have limited impact on it. The US retail sales data in July met expectations. The repeated postponement of the full resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has significantly supported the tin price and may have a continuous impact. In the short term, the tin price may continue to fluctuate, with a stable macro - environment and room for speculation on supply - side topics [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 267,020 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concern about price increase, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely to be positive**: Sino - US tariff policy relief, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and the resumption of production in Myanmar falling short of expectations [4]. - **Likely to be negative**: The tariff policy being inconsistent, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from an expansion cycle to a contraction cycle [5]. 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are 267,020 yuan/ton, 267,290 yuan/ton, and 267,400 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of LME tin 3M is 33,670 US dollars/ton, up 60 US dollars or 0.18% daily. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.91, down 0.15 or 1.86% [6]. - **Spot data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, 60A solder bar, 63A solder bar, and lead - free solder are 266,800 yuan/ton, 400 yuan/ton, 254,800 yuan/ton, 258,800 yuan/ton, 173,250 yuan/ton, 180,750 yuan/ton, and 272,750 yuan/ton respectively. Their weekly changes are - 1,200 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, - 1,200 yuan/ton, - 1,200 yuan/ton, - 500 yuan/ton, - 1,000 yuan/ton, and - 1,500 yuan/ton respectively [12]. 3.4 Tin Import and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 17,389.53 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7.6%. The 40% and 60% tin ore processing fees are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [14]. 3.5 Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,587 tons, an increase of 161 tons or 2.17% daily. The warehouse receipt quantity of tin in Guangdong is 5,230 tons, an increase of 267 tons or 5.38% daily, and in Shanghai is 1,486 tons, a decrease of 106 tons or - 6.66% daily. The total LME tin inventory is 1,655 tons, with no daily change [17].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 18, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Tin prices declined slightly on Thursday, fluctuating with the non-ferrous metals sector. Recently, macro factors have had limited impact. On the supply side, the repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. According to Alphamin's financial report, the impact of the production cut at the Bisie tin mine exceeded expectations, driving up short-term tin prices. There has been no significant change in demand [3]. Summary by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 266,820 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. Risk Management Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Market Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino-US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector remaining in the expansion cycle, and the resumption of production in Myanmar falling short of expectations [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin mines into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion speed, gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5]. Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, continuous first, and continuous third contracts are 266,820 yuan/ton, 266,820 yuan/ton, and 267,360 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The LME tin 3M price is 33,610 US dollars/ton, up 175 US dollars or 0.52% daily. The Shanghai-London ratio is 8.06, up 0.04 or 0.5% [6]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Nonferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, solder bars (60A and 63A), and lead-free solder have weekly declines ranging from -0.58% to -0.78% [13]. Import and Processing Data - The latest tin import profit and loss is -16,161.2 yuan/ton, down 2.1% daily. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore remain unchanged [15]. Inventory Data - The latest total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,426 tons, up 0.05% daily. The LME tin inventory is 1,830 tons, up 2.81% daily [17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Tin prices declined slightly on Thursday, fluctuating with the non - ferrous metals sector. Recently, the macro - environment has limited impact on tin prices. The repeated delay of the full resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. According to Alphamin's financial report, the production cut at the Bisie tin mine has exceeded expectations, pushing up short - term tin prices. There has been no significant change in demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,420 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. - In the tin futures market, the latest prices of沪锡主力,沪锡连一 are 267,420 yuan/ton,沪锡连三 is 267,820 yuan/ton,伦锡3M is 33,435 dollars/ton (down 0.79% daily), and the沪伦比 is 8.02 (up 0.12% daily) [6]. 3.2 Risk Management Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call options when volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put options when volatility is appropriate [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector remaining in the expansion cycle, and the resumption of production in Myanmar falling short of expectations [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and its transition from an expansion cycle to a contraction cycle [5]. 3.4 Spot and Inventory Data - **Spot Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots is 269,500 yuan/ton (up 0.86% weekly), 1 tin premium is 300 yuan/ton (down 25% weekly), 40% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton (up 0.9% weekly), 60% tin concentrate is 261,500 yuan/ton (up 0.89% weekly), etc. [12]. - **Inventory Data**: The total warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 7,422 tons (down 0.11% daily), in Guangdong are 4,881 tons (down 0.49% daily), in Shanghai are 1,670 tons (up 0.97% daily), and the total LME tin inventory is 1,780 tons (up 0.85% daily) [20].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 14, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Tin prices declined slightly on Wednesday, with limited macro influence. On the supply side, the repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. The unexpected impact of the production cut at Bisie tin mine in Alphamin's financial report has pushed up short - term tin prices. There is no significant change in demand [3] Summary by Section 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Tin Price Volatility**: The latest closing price is 269,820 yuan/ton, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton, the current volatility is 14.36%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 26.1% [2] - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory worried about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2510C275000 call options when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory worried about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of Shanghai Tin main futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2510P245000 put options when volatility is appropriate [2] 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Lidofactors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin mines into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion speed and shift from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] 3. Tin Futures Market Data - **Daily Futures Data**: - **Shanghai Tin**: The main contract, continuous - one contract, and continuous - three contract prices are 269,820 yuan/ton, 269,820 yuan/ton, and 269,950 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [6] - **LME Tin 3M**: The price is 33,700 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars (- 0.21%) [6] - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The ratio is 7.95, down 0.03 (- 0.38%) [6] 4. Tin Spot Market Data - **Weekly Spot Data**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium, 40% and 60% tin concentrates, and various types of solder bars have increased to varying degrees [14] 5. Tin Import and Processing Data - **Daily Import and Processing Data**: The tin import profit and loss is - 15,720.3 yuan/ton, down 5.17% with a daily increase of 856.65 yuan. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ores remain unchanged [17] 6. Tin Inventory Data - **Daily Inventory Data**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in SHFE is 7,430 tons, up 0.45% (33 tons). The LME tin inventory is 1,765 tons, up 0.86% (15 tons) [20]