China Semiconductors: 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D. +852 2123 2654 qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui +852 2123 2694 zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma +852 2123 2626 francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Farewell 2025, hello 2026. As we wrap up the second year of our China Semiconductors sector coverage, we are publishing this call to look-back at our published views during the year, review what worked and what didn't, and summarize our outlook for 2026. Top picks: NAURA/AMEC, Cambricon, Hori ...

受益于存储高景气与晶圆厂扩产潮，本周半导体设备产业连续走强。12月23日，半导体设备ETF（561980）全天收涨1.92%，标的指数年内上涨64.76%，在 国证芯片、中华半导体芯片、芯片产业等主流半导体指数中位列第一。 | < ロ | 半导体设备ETF 561980.SH | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2.065 | 昨收 2.026 开盘 2. | | | +0.039 1.92% | 流通盘 12.1亿 流通值 25. | | | 最 高 2.079 | 成交量 132.94万 换手率 10.9 | | | 長 低 2.011 | 成交额 2.74亿 均 价 2. | | | IOPV | 2.0658 溢折率 -0.04% 升贴水率 1.8 | | | 净值走势 招商中证半导体产业ETF(5 ... 2.0637 1.7 | | | | 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 | | | | 叠加 设均线 MA 5:1.964↑ 10:1.950↑ 20:1.870↑ | | | | 2.334 | | | | | | 2.226 | | 1.686 | 2 1 | | | | 8 ...

周一三大指数震荡上扬，通信设备、半导体设备、以及航天航空等行业表现较好。半导体设备ETF （561980）全天收涨4.22%，最新规模24.54亿元，成份股拓荆科技等多股新高。 消息面上，上海交通大学科研人员近日在新一代光计算芯片领域取得突破，首次实现了支持大规模语义 媒体生成模型的"Light"芯片，标志着中国在光芯片领域进入全球领先水平。 此外，国际半导体产业协会（SEMI）发布报告显示，2025年全球半导体制造设备总销售额预计达1330 亿美元，同比增长13.7%，创历史新高。预计未来两年半导体制造设备销售额将继续增长，2026年和 2027年分别达到1450亿美元和1560亿美元。这一增长主要得益于人工智能相关投资的推动，尤其是在尖 端逻辑电路、存储器以及先进封装技术的应用方面。 集微网预计，受人工智能部署和持续技术迁移对HBM需求增长的推动，预计到2027年，与存储器相关 的资本支出将显著增长。据CFM闪存市场，四季度嵌入式NAND和DRAM合约价预计将分别上涨30%和 45%，且一季度还将出现大幅上涨。 从产业链传导路径来看，AI需求高增 → 存储/先进逻辑芯片需求旺盛 → 国内晶圆厂代工扩产需求 ...

12月15日晚间，国内集成电路装备龙头企业北方华创（002371）(SZ002371)发布公告称，公司实际控制人北京电子控股有限责任公司(简称"北京电控")拟 通过非公开协议转让方式向国新投资有限公司(简称"国新投资")转让持有的北方华创1448.18万股无限售流通普通股股份。 截至16日收盘，北方华创报442.88元/股，公司总市值3210亿元。 ↓↓↓ | 股东名称 | 本次转让前 | | 本次转让后 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 持股数量(股) | 持股比例(%) | 持股数量(股) | 持股比例(%) | | 北京电控 | 67,436,337 | 9.31 | 52,954,564 | 7.31 | | 七星集团 | 240,537,223 | 33.20 | 240,537,223 | 33.20 | | 合计持有数量 | 307,973,560 | 42.51 | 293,491,787 | 40.51 | | 国新投资 | 8,341,993 | ાં 15 | 22,823,766 | 3.15 | 资料显示，北方华创科技集团股份有限公司成立 ...

Core Viewpoint - AI computing power is becoming the main growth engine in the telecommunications industry, with a focus on investment opportunities in the computing power supply chain and the delivery capabilities of leading optical module manufacturers [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The computing power sector has shown significant growth, with the semiconductor equipment and AI chip industries facing increased urgency for development due to overseas restrictions, making domestic substitution a prevailing trend [1] - The domestic chip manufacturers have begun to explore solutions such as super nodes to compensate for the performance disadvantages of single cards by leveraging the advantages of multiple card configurations [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The construction of multi-card clusters raises higher demands for the quantity and quality of components, creating greater investment opportunities across the supply chain [1] - Specific segments such as liquid cooling, storage, power supply, optical modules, PCB, and quantum computing are expected to experience higher performance elasticity [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Since 2025, both Chinese and American technology stocks have performed well, with the computing power sector leading market gains, and there are emerging opportunities on the model and application side [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, the domestic computing power market is expected to thrive, with performance elasticity and investment certainty, potentially replicating the long bull market seen in U.S. stocks since 2023 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) reported strong Q3 earnings, beating estimates and showing significant year-over-year revenue growth, despite some declines in specific segments [3][4][10]. Financial Performance - AEIS reported non-GAAP earnings of $1.74 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 18.37%, with a year-over-year increase of 77.6% and a sequential increase of 16% [3]. - Revenues reached $463.3 million, surpassing estimates by 5.14% and increasing 23.8% year over year, with a sequential growth of 5% [3]. Segment Performance - Semiconductor Equipment revenues, accounting for 42.4% of total revenues, decreased by 0.5% year over year to $196.6 million and fell 6.2% sequentially [4]. - Industrial & Medical revenues, making up 15.4% of total revenues, declined 7.4% year over year to $71.2 million but increased 3.8% sequentially [4]. - Data Center Computing revenues, representing 37% of total revenues, surged 113% year over year to $171.6 million, with a sequential jump of 21.2% [4]. - Telecom & Networking revenues, comprising 5.2% of total revenues, rose 24.5% year over year to $24 million and increased 9.6% sequentially [5]. Operating Results - The non-GAAP gross margin improved to 39.1%, up 280 basis points year over year and 100 basis points sequentially, aided by factors such as factory closures in China and lower tariff costs [6]. - Non-GAAP operating expenses were $103.4 million, up 6.8% year over year but down 0.2% sequentially, with the operating margin increasing to 20.8% compared to 9.6% in the previous year [7]. Balance Sheet & Cash Flow - As of September 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents stood at $758.6 million, an increase from $713.5 million as of June 30 [8]. - Cash flow from operations was $79 million, up from $46.5 million in the previous quarter [8]. Guidance & Outlook - For Q4 2025, AEIS expects non-GAAP earnings of $1.75 per share, with anticipated revenues of $470 million, reflecting sequential growth [9][10]. - The company projects overall revenue growth of approximately 20% for 2025, with Data Center revenues expected to double [11]. - Estimates for the stock have been trending upward, with a consensus estimate shift of 19.05% in the past month, leading to a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) [12][14].

Core Insights - The Chengdu R&D and Production Base project by Zhongwei Semiconductor Equipment (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. has commenced construction, with a total investment of approximately 3.05 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing the development of the integrated circuit industry in Chengdu [1] Company Summary - The first phase of the Zhongwei Chengdu project covers an area of 50 acres, including a research and development center, manufacturing base, office space, and supporting facilities, with plans to be operational by 2027 [1] - The project will leverage Zhongwei's advantages in semiconductor equipment to enhance R&D and manufacturing capabilities [1] - The establishment of this project signifies Zhongwei's further expansion of production capacity and will contribute to the improvement of the local integrated circuit industry supply chain in Sichuan [1] Industry Summary - A promotional conference for the electronic information industry in Chengdu High-tech Zone was held concurrently, focusing on key factors such as regional advantages, talent, finance, and infrastructure [1] - In the first half of the year, the number of industrial enterprises in the electronic information sector reached 246, achieving an output value of 156.3 billion yuan, with an industrial added value growth of 15.9% [1] - The integrated circuit sector had 39 industrial enterprises, generating an output value of 16.8 billion yuan [1]

Group 1: Skillsoft Corp. (SKIL) - Skillsoft is an instructor-led training services company with a Zacks Rank 1 [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 240.9% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.47 compared to the industry average of 0.93 and possesses a Growth Score of B [1] Group 2: Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) - Lam Research manufactures and services semiconductor equipment and holds a Zacks Rank 1 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased nearly 3% over the last 60 days [2] - The company has a PEG ratio of 1.72 compared to the industry average of 3.41 and possesses a Growth Score of B [2] Group 3: Ultrapar Participaçoes S.A. (UGP) - Ultrapar is a distributor of liquefied petroleum gas, gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, and kerosene, with a Zacks Rank 1 [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current year earnings has increased by 33.3% over the last 60 days [3] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.01 compared to the industry average of 2.56 and possesses a Growth Score of A [3]

Core Points - The company approved the use of idle raised funds amounting to 1.3 billion yuan to temporarily supplement working capital through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Beijing North Huachuang Microelectronics Equipment Co., Ltd [1][2] - The duration for using these funds is set for a maximum of 12 months, from October 30, 2024, to October 29, 2025 [1] - The company ensured that the funds will only be used for activities related to its main business operations and will not affect the normal progress of investment projects [2] Fund Usage Details - The total amount of idle raised funds used for temporary working capital is 1.3 billion yuan [2] - The funds were fully returned to the dedicated raised funds account by October 17, 2025, within the stipulated 12-month period [2] - The company informed its sponsor institution and the representative of the sponsor about the return of the funds [2]

Core Insights - The semiconductor and integrated circuit industry in Shenzhen is projected to reach a scale of 256.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.8% [1] - In the first half of 2025, the industry is expected to continue its rapid growth, reaching 142.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [1] Group 1 - The Shenzhen municipal government attributes the growth of the semiconductor and integrated circuit industry to the collaborative efforts in policies, funding, talent, and platforms, leading to a significant optimization of the industry ecosystem [3] - According to CITIC Securities, the impact of U.S. restrictions on China's semiconductor manufacturing has diminished over time, indicating that the domestic semiconductor industry is well-prepared for these challenges [3] - The trend of domestic substitution for semiconductor equipment and components is becoming clearer, particularly in advanced storage and logic sectors, as domestic manufacturers make significant progress [3] Group 2 - Domestic storage wafer manufacturers are actively promoting the localization of semiconductor equipment to reduce reliance on overseas suppliers, having made breakthroughs in key processes such as etching and deposition [3] - CITIC Securities anticipates stable expansion demand for domestic advanced storage wafer manufacturers in 2025, with a potential rapid increase in 2026 as new production lines come online, further driving demand for domestic semiconductor equipment and components [3]