ab Global Research 26 November 2025 China Economic Perspectives China by the Numbers (November 2025) Our guide to Chinese monthly data What the numbers are, what they mean and the outlook going forward. October growth slowed across the board Property activities deteriorated further in October, with floor space of sales and new starts declining more from the September and Q3 average levels. The YoY weakness of major FAI sectors extended further, including manufacturing (-7% YoY), infrastructure (- 12% YoY) a ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy - **Key Focus**: Economic performance indicators for October 2025 and projections for Q4 2025 and 2026-2027 Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Slowdown**: October 2025 saw a broad slowdown in economic growth, with significant declines in property activities, fixed asset investment (FAI), exports, and industrial production (IP) [2][3][7] 2. **Property Market Decline**: The property sector experienced a year-on-year contraction of 23% in FAI, with property sales dropping by 18.8% and new starts declining by 29.5% [2][7][8] 3. **FAI Weakness**: Overall FAI contracted by 11.2% YoY, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments also showing significant declines of 6.7% and 12.1% respectively [8][27] 4. **Retail Sales**: Retail sales growth edged down to 2.9% YoY, influenced by a high base effect from trade-in subsidies, particularly in home appliances and automobiles [2][15][27] 5. **Export Contraction**: Exports unexpectedly contracted by 1.1% YoY, marking the first decline since February, attributed to a high base effect and reduced demand for IT products [2][18][27] 6. **Industrial Production**: IP growth slowed to 4.9% YoY, with notable declines in key sectors such as special purpose equipment and ferrous metals [14][27] 7. **Inflation Trends**: October CPI increased to 0.2% YoY, while PPI showed a slight narrowing of decline to -2.1% YoY, indicating mixed inflationary pressures [21][27] 8. **Credit Growth**: Credit growth decreased to 8.5% YoY, with new RMB loans significantly lower than the previous year, reflecting subdued private credit demand [22][27] Future Projections 1. **Q4 2025 Expectations**: Anticipated GDP growth for Q4 2025 is around 4.2% YoY, with continued weakness in consumption and property markets [3][27] 2. **2026 Economic Outlook**: GDP growth is expected to slow modestly to 4.5% in 2026, with a continued decline in exports and a resilient domestic economy despite ongoing property downturns [5][29][30] 3. **Policy Easing**: Modest fiscal and monetary policy easing is underway, including RMB 500 billion in special financial tools and potential cuts in policy rates and mortgage rates by 2026 [4][28] Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Confidence**: The consumer confidence index has shown slight recovery, reflecting improved sentiment from the equity market, although it remains below pre-COVID levels [15][27] - **Sector-Specific Performance**: High-tech industries continue to show robust growth, contrasting with the overall economic slowdown [14][27] - **Investment Activity**: The introduction of new financing tools from policy banks may provide marginal support to infrastructure and manufacturing investments in the coming months [8][27] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on the property market, investment trends, and policy responses.

Group 1: National Standards Implementation - A series of important national standards related to industrial robots, cloud computing, and consumer products will be implemented starting October 1, which aims to regulate emerging industries and ensure a healthy development environment [2][5][12] - The standards include methods for dynamic stability testing of industrial robots, requirements for cloud computing hyper-converged systems, and safety regulations for consumer products like wet wipes and watches [3][6][11] Group 2: Industrial Robot Standards - The recommended national standard for industrial robots, GB/T 45509-2025, outlines the conditions and equipment for dynamic stability testing, which will enhance the development and industrialization of measurement systems [3][5] - Another standard, GB/T 45501-2025, specifies the general technical requirements for three-dimensional vision guidance systems used in industrial robots, promoting their application in manufacturing [4][5] Group 3: Cloud Computing Standards - The national standard GB/T 45399-2025 establishes a reference model for hyper-converged systems, detailing requirements for various virtualization components, which will guide manufacturers in product design [6][7] - The standard GB/T 45400-2025 sets forth general requirements for cloud supercomputing services, enhancing the evaluation framework for third-party testing institutions [7] Group 4: Consumer Product Standards - The mandatory standard GB 44702-2024 regulates harmful substance limits in watch components that come into direct contact with skin, ensuring consumer safety and industry health [8][10] - The wet wipes standards (GB/T 27728.1-2024, GB/T 27728.2-2024, GB/T 27728.3-2024) establish general and specific requirements for various types of wet wipes, promoting product safety and quality [11][12] Group 5: Safety and Rehabilitation Standards - The standards for gas burners (GB/T 45384-2025, GB/T 45385-2025) outline safety and control requirements for gas appliances, contributing to the overall safety and reliability of gas systems [13][14] - The standard GB/T 45933-2025 specifies basic configuration requirements for rehabilitation aids in elderly care institutions, supporting resource optimization and quality development in the elderly care industry [15][16] Group 6: Data Sharing and Cultural Standards - The standard GB/T 45800.2-2025 defines data sharing and exchange requirements for the national integrated government big data system, facilitating better inter-agency collaboration and service delivery [19][20] - The standard GB/T 45499-2025 regulates the management and service of cultural stations in towns and streets, aiming to enhance the service level of grassroots libraries [17][18]

Group 1 - The implementation of new national standards starting October 1 aims to regulate emerging industries and ensure a safe consumption environment, thereby supporting the healthy development of future industries [1] - The recommended national standard for industrial robots, GB/T45509—2025, outlines testing conditions, equipment, trajectory selection, steps, and reporting for dynamic stability tests [1] - The standard GB/T45501—2025 specifies the general technical requirements for 3D vision guidance systems used in industrial robots, including architecture, basic requirements, functional requirements, and performance requirements [1] - The standard GB/T45502—2025 establishes information security requirements and testing methods for service robots, enhancing the information security level of service robot products [1] Group 2 - The recommended national standard GB/T45399—2025 for cloud computing hyper-converged systems sets requirements for computing, storage, network, security virtualization components, and operational management, guiding manufacturers in product design [2] - The standard GB/T45400—2025 outlines the reference architecture and general requirements for cloud supercomputing services, aiding third-party evaluation institutions in testing and assessment [2] - The standard GB/T45933—2025 specifies the basic requirements and configuration list for rehabilitation auxiliary equipment in elderly care institutions, promoting efficient resource allocation and high-quality development in the elderly care industry [2]

Core Insights - Guangzhou has released a "Robot+" application scenario demand list, focusing on 80 typical application scenarios across seven categories, aimed at accelerating the implementation of the robotics industry [1] - The robotics industry is becoming a key area of global technological competition, with Guangzhou positioning itself as a strategic hub for growth in this sector [1] - The production of industrial robots in Guangzhou is projected to reach 20,000 units in 2024, a 33% increase year-on-year, while service robots are expected to reach 90,000 units, a 22% increase [1] Industry Developments - The demand for robots in smart cities and smart parks is rapidly increasing, with companies exploring integrated solutions that connect robots, elevators, and IoT devices [2] - The government is focusing on supply-demand matching to promote innovation from laboratories to production lines, enhancing the integration of industry and application chains [2] - Future policies will emphasize application-driven development, whole machine promotion, soft and hard collaboration, and ecosystem cultivation in the robotics sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The financial reports of 75 listed companies in the robotics sector reveal a significant divergence in performance, with industrial robot manufacturers facing substantial challenges while service robots and AI companies show growth [1][12]. Industrial Robots - Among 7 industrial robot manufacturers, 2 experienced declines in both revenue and net profit, 4 had single declines, and only 1 saw increases in both metrics [2]. - The leading company, Huichuan Technology, reported a revenue of 37.041 billion yuan, but its net profit fell by 9.62% due to a decrease in gross margin [3]. - Estun and Efort faced severe declines, with Estun's net profit plummeting by 700.14% [3][4]. Components - In the components sector, 21 companies showed mixed results: 5 had declines in both revenue and profit, while 9 reported increases in both [5][6]. - Sanhua Intelligent Controls led with a revenue of 27.947 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.099 billion yuan, marking a 13.8% increase in revenue [7]. Integrated Applications - The integrated applications sector included 25 companies, with 14 experiencing declines in both revenue and profit, while 9 reported increases [8][10]. - Industrial Fulian dominated with a revenue of 609.135 billion yuan and a net profit of 23.216 billion yuan, accounting for over 80% of the sector's total revenue [10][11]. Service Robots and AI - In the service robots and AI sector, 17 companies were analyzed, with 8 showing increases in both revenue and profit, while 6 had declines in one or both metrics [13][14]. - Hikvision led with significant revenue, with its overseas and innovative business income surpassing 50% of total revenue for the first time [15][16]. Special Robots - The special robots sector included 5 companies, with 3 experiencing declines in both revenue and profit, and only 1 company reporting increases [17][18]. - The largest profit was reported by CITIC Heavy Industries, with a net profit of 3.75 billion yuan from a revenue of 80.34 billion yuan [19].