热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 一、高频数据边际利多显示，但马棕12月累库概率仍高 在马棕12月1-15日降幅偏低的产量预估及环比大降的出口表现下，市场原本预期马棕12月库存将大概率 累至300万吨，棕榈油市场情绪因而受到较大打压。叠加宏观市场情绪不佳及美盘豆类弱势运行，这一 度引致上周棕榈油05向下跌破8300支撑，市场一片风声鹤唳。然而，本周马棕高频产量及出口数据边际 利多显现，叠加美国45Z税收抵免传出消息，以及文华商品指数向上突破，再度推动油脂反弹。 SPPOMA预计马棕12月1-20日产量环比降7.15%，较前15日2.97%的降幅扩大，引发马棕产量预估下调。 此外，船运机构ITS和Amspec分别预计马棕12月1-20日出口较上月同期增2.4%、降0.87%，较前15日的 降15.89%、16.37%明显好转，令马棕12月累库至300万吨以上的概率大幅降低，对棕榈油市场情绪带来 进一步缓和。然而，UOB及MPOA陆续给出马棕12月1-20日5%-9%和7.44%的产量环比降幅，若12月下 旬出口 ...

Group 1: Report Core Views - The soybean export sales of the United States from November 13th are expected to increase, with the 2025 - 26 annual soybean export sales expected to net increase by 60 - 140 million tons, the 2025 - 26 annual soybean meal export sales expected to net increase by 5 - 45 million tons, and the 2025 - 26 annual soybean oil export sales expected to net increase by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1] - The soybean crushing volume in the United States in October 2025 was 7.11 million short tons, and the soybean oil production was 2.83 billion pounds, which increased by 18% compared to September 2025 and 11% compared to October 2024 [1] - Malaysia's palm - oil inventory at the end of November reached the highest level in more than six and a half years, with a 13% increase to 2.84 million tons due to increased production and weak export demand [1] - Australia's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to increase to 7.2 million tons, and Canada's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to increase to 21.8 million tons [1] Group 2: Key Data U.S. Data - The U.S. soybean crushing volume in October 2025 was 7.11 million short tons (237 million bushels), the September 2025 crushing volume was 6.15 million short tons (205 million bushels), and the October 2024 crushing volume was 6.47 million short tons (216 million bushels) [1] - The U.S. soybean oil production in October 2025 was 2.83 billion pounds, a 18% increase from September 2025 and an 11% increase from October 2024 [1] Malaysia Data - Malaysia's palm - oil inventory at the end of November increased by 13% to 2.84 million tons, the November production decreased by 5.3% to 1.94 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 28.13% to 1.21 million tons [1] - From December 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm - oil export volume decreased by 15% according to ITS and 10.31% according to AmSpec [1] Rapeseed Data - Australia's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to be 7.2 million tons, and Canada's 2025/26 annual rapeseed production is expected to be 21.8 million tons [1] Spot Price Data | Date | Bean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/04 | 3020 | 2520 | 8520 | 8620 | 9890 | | 2025/12/05 | 3020 | 2500 | 8540 | 8720 | 9870 | | 2025/12/08 | 3020 | 2500 | 8500 | 8660 | 9760 | | 2025/12/09 | 3000 | 2460 | 8450 | 8570 | 9630 | | 2025/12/10 | 3030 | 2490 | 8500 | 8510 | 9680 | [5]

Soybeans were 1 to 4 cents higher across most contracts on Wednesday.  The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was 4 1/4 cents lower at $10.21 3/4. Soymeal futures ere steady to $3.10 in the red, with Soy Oil futures 7 to 11 points higher. USDA reported private export sales of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China and 119,000 MT to unknown destinations, as well as 212,000 MT to unknown received in the reporting period. Another 120,000 MT of soybean meal was sold to Poland. More News from Barchart The ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The agricultural markets are expected to be influenced by three main themes in 2026: robust supply, subdued demand, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2][8] - The resolution of the US-China trade dispute is crucial for US-origin demand, particularly for soybeans, as a trade deal could significantly increase Chinese purchases [1][2] - The ongoing Ukraine war complicates the situation, especially with recent attacks on Russian oil facilities impacting grain exports [1][2] Market Dynamics - **Soy Oil**: The market for soybean oil is projected to be bullish due to strong demand and constrained supply, with prices expected to average 58 cents per pound in 2026, up from 51 cents currently [3][6][114] - **Wheat and Soymeal**: A bearish outlook is maintained for wheat and soymeal, with prices expected to hover around $5 per bushel in 2026 due to strong supply and flat import demand from major buyers [3][6][24][28] - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to remain supported in the short term due to strong US exports and potential USDA downgrades to US yields, but a reversal towards $4 per bushel could occur in the second half of 2026 [3][6][63] Geopolitical and Weather Factors - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China trade relations and the Ukraine conflict, continues to add uncertainty to agricultural markets [1][2][8] - Weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly La Niña effects, are being closely monitored, with early signs of dryness in Argentina and Brazil [2][19] Price Forecasts - **Wheat**: Expected to finish strong with a 30 million ton increase year-over-year across the top seven export nations, but prices are projected to remain depressed [6][24] - **Corn**: Prices are expected to stabilize around $4.5 per bushel in the next six months, with a potential drop to $4 per bushel in the latter half of 2026 [6][63] - **Soybeans**: Prices are anticipated to trade within the $11-$11.5 per bushel range into Q1 2026, driven primarily by Chinese demand [6][91] Additional Insights - The sugar market is expected to recover, moving from a 4 million ton deficit in 2024/25 to a 1.9 million ton surplus in 2025/26, with prices stabilizing around $15-$15.5 cents per pound [6][120] - The soybean meal market appears oversupplied, with prices expected to average $280 per ton in 2026, down from current forward prices of $331 per ton [6][120] - The biofuel industry is anticipated to compete intensely for soybean oil, potentially diverting it from food use, which could lead to higher prices [114][119][120] Conclusion - The agricultural sector is facing a complex interplay of supply, demand, and geopolitical factors that will shape market dynamics in 2026. The bullish outlook for soybean oil contrasts with bearish trends in wheat and soymeal, while corn prices remain contingent on export performance and weather conditions.

Core Insights - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has cut its 2025 profit forecast for the third consecutive quarter due to U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty and global trade disruptions affecting oilseed crush margins, resulting in an 8% drop in shares during pre-market trading [1][3] - The company reported a significant decline in earnings, with a 21% drop in its agricultural services and oilseed segment to $379 million, and a staggering 93% decrease in crushing business earnings for the third quarter [3] Industry Context - U.S. tariff threats and changing deadlines have complicated operations for global grain merchants like ADM, leading to a halt in Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and driving crop prices to multi-year lows [2] - The deferral of U.S. biofuel policy decisions has slowed the use of feedstocks, particularly soybean oil, which is produced at ADM's processing plants [2] Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, ADM anticipates an earnings rebound in 2026, driven by proposals from the Trump administration for increased biofuel use and a reduction in trade tensions with China [4] - The company expects biofuel policy clarity and evolving trade policies to create demand signals for the industry, with analysts from UBS expressing optimism for 2026 due to higher biofuel mandates driving demand for soybean oil [4][5] - ADM reported an adjusted profit of 92 cents per share for the quarter ending September 30, marking a six-year low but exceeding analysts' average estimate of 85 cents [5]

Core Insights - Bunge Global SA (NYSE:BG) is a prominent agribusiness and food company, founded in 1818, with a diverse portfolio including Agribusiness, Refined and Specialty Oils, Milling, and Sugar and Bioenergy. It ranks 7th among S&P 500 stocks with a low PE ratio [1] Group 1: Investment Outlook - UBS has maintained a Buy rating on Bunge with a price target of $100, following discussions with the company's management at the UBS Materials Conference [1] - Analyst Manav Gupta from UBS indicates that Bunge anticipates favorable outcomes regarding the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) and Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) decisions by December 2025, aided by collaboration between the EPA and USDA [2] - Bunge expects an increase in soybean oil demand in 2026 and 2027, as foreign feedstocks lack production tax credits and only receive 50% of Renewable Identification Numbers [4] Group 2: Regulatory and Market Factors - The removal of the Indirect Land Use Change penalty for soybean oil improves its Carbon Intensity rating, allowing it to compete effectively with other feedstocks like tallow and recycled cooking oil [3] - Bunge plans to update its 2025 earnings guidance to include Viterra, with expectations of re-segmentation reflected in Q3 2025 results [4]

Group 1 - The soybean futures markets have been impacted by Argentina's temporary grain export tax suspension, leading to around 40 cargoes of soybeans registered for export, primarily booked by China [1] - U.S.-China trade tensions have intensified, with new tariffs imposed by the U.S. and retaliatory measures from China, placing American soybean farmers in a challenging position [2] - U.S. soybean farmers are frustrated as they have made zero sales to China in the current crop marketing year due to a 20% retaliatory tariff from China, allowing competitors like Brazil and Argentina to capture market share [5] Group 2 - China typically purchases about 90% of Argentina's soybean exports, and while recent sales have increased, total exports remain within expected norms [6] - China's strong demand for soybeans suggests that while Argentina may meet short-term needs, global demand will continue to rise, indicating a bullish outlook for U.S. and global soybean markets in the long term [7]

Market Trends - Soybean oil futures fell to the lowest in more than three months [1] - Lack of demand from China for US supplies pressured the entire soy complex [1]

Soybean oil futures fell the most in a week as traders digested US government proposals to reallocate exempted volumes under biofuel blending requirements https://t.co/kJYAWR2twc ...

Market Trends - Soybean oil futures gained for a fifth day [1] Regulatory Environment - Traders awaited biofuel blending figures from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) [1]