油 脂 基 差 ： | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | | 2025/12/04 | 3020 | 2520 | 8520 | 8620 | 9890 | | 2025/12/05 | 3020 | 2500 | 8540 | 8720 | 9870 | | 2025/12/08 | 3020 | 2500 | 8500 | 8660 | 9760 | | 2025/12/09 | 3000 | 2460 | 8450 | 8570 | 9630 | | 2025/12/10 | 3030 | 2490 | 8500 | 8510 | 9680 | 蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/12/11 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售13.60万吨大豆 民间出口商报告向中国出口销售136，000吨大豆，2025/2026市场年度付运。 民间出口商报告向未知目的地出口销售33.1万吨大豆 民间出 ...

Soybeans were 1 to 4 cents higher across most contracts on Wednesday.  The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was 4 1/4 cents lower at $10.21 3/4. Soymeal futures ere steady to $3.10 in the red, with Soy Oil futures 7 to 11 points higher. USDA reported private export sales of 136,000 MT of soybeans to China and 119,000 MT to unknown destinations, as well as 212,000 MT to unknown received in the reporting period. Another 120,000 MT of soybean meal was sold to Poland. More News from Barchart The ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The agricultural markets are expected to be influenced by three main themes in 2026: robust supply, subdued demand, and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2][8] - The resolution of the US-China trade dispute is crucial for US-origin demand, particularly for soybeans, as a trade deal could significantly increase Chinese purchases [1][2] - The ongoing Ukraine war complicates the situation, especially with recent attacks on Russian oil facilities impacting grain exports [1][2] Market Dynamics - **Soy Oil**: The market for soybean oil is projected to be bullish due to strong demand and constrained supply, with prices expected to average 58 cents per pound in 2026, up from 51 cents currently [3][6][114] - **Wheat and Soymeal**: A bearish outlook is maintained for wheat and soymeal, with prices expected to hover around $5 per bushel in 2026 due to strong supply and flat import demand from major buyers [3][6][24][28] - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to remain supported in the short term due to strong US exports and potential USDA downgrades to US yields, but a reversal towards $4 per bushel could occur in the second half of 2026 [3][6][63] Geopolitical and Weather Factors - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China trade relations and the Ukraine conflict, continues to add uncertainty to agricultural markets [1][2][8] - Weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly La Niña effects, are being closely monitored, with early signs of dryness in Argentina and Brazil [2][19] Price Forecasts - **Wheat**: Expected to finish strong with a 30 million ton increase year-over-year across the top seven export nations, but prices are projected to remain depressed [6][24] - **Corn**: Prices are expected to stabilize around $4.5 per bushel in the next six months, with a potential drop to $4 per bushel in the latter half of 2026 [6][63] - **Soybeans**: Prices are anticipated to trade within the $11-$11.5 per bushel range into Q1 2026, driven primarily by Chinese demand [6][91] Additional Insights - The sugar market is expected to recover, moving from a 4 million ton deficit in 2024/25 to a 1.9 million ton surplus in 2025/26, with prices stabilizing around $15-$15.5 cents per pound [6][120] - The soybean meal market appears oversupplied, with prices expected to average $280 per ton in 2026, down from current forward prices of $331 per ton [6][120] - The biofuel industry is anticipated to compete intensely for soybean oil, potentially diverting it from food use, which could lead to higher prices [114][119][120] Conclusion - The agricultural sector is facing a complex interplay of supply, demand, and geopolitical factors that will shape market dynamics in 2026. The bullish outlook for soybean oil contrasts with bearish trends in wheat and soymeal, while corn prices remain contingent on export performance and weather conditions.

Core Insights - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has cut its 2025 profit forecast for the third consecutive quarter due to U.S. biofuel policy uncertainty and global trade disruptions affecting oilseed crush margins, resulting in an 8% drop in shares during pre-market trading [1][3] - The company reported a significant decline in earnings, with a 21% drop in its agricultural services and oilseed segment to $379 million, and a staggering 93% decrease in crushing business earnings for the third quarter [3] Industry Context - U.S. tariff threats and changing deadlines have complicated operations for global grain merchants like ADM, leading to a halt in Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and driving crop prices to multi-year lows [2] - The deferral of U.S. biofuel policy decisions has slowed the use of feedstocks, particularly soybean oil, which is produced at ADM's processing plants [2] Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, ADM anticipates an earnings rebound in 2026, driven by proposals from the Trump administration for increased biofuel use and a reduction in trade tensions with China [4] - The company expects biofuel policy clarity and evolving trade policies to create demand signals for the industry, with analysts from UBS expressing optimism for 2026 due to higher biofuel mandates driving demand for soybean oil [4][5] - ADM reported an adjusted profit of 92 cents per share for the quarter ending September 30, marking a six-year low but exceeding analysts' average estimate of 85 cents [5]

Core Insights - Bunge Global SA (NYSE:BG) is a prominent agribusiness and food company, founded in 1818, with a diverse portfolio including Agribusiness, Refined and Specialty Oils, Milling, and Sugar and Bioenergy. It ranks 7th among S&P 500 stocks with a low PE ratio [1] Group 1: Investment Outlook - UBS has maintained a Buy rating on Bunge with a price target of $100, following discussions with the company's management at the UBS Materials Conference [1] - Analyst Manav Gupta from UBS indicates that Bunge anticipates favorable outcomes regarding the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) and Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) decisions by December 2025, aided by collaboration between the EPA and USDA [2] - Bunge expects an increase in soybean oil demand in 2026 and 2027, as foreign feedstocks lack production tax credits and only receive 50% of Renewable Identification Numbers [4] Group 2: Regulatory and Market Factors - The removal of the Indirect Land Use Change penalty for soybean oil improves its Carbon Intensity rating, allowing it to compete effectively with other feedstocks like tallow and recycled cooking oil [3] - Bunge plans to update its 2025 earnings guidance to include Viterra, with expectations of re-segmentation reflected in Q3 2025 results [4]

Group 1 - The soybean futures markets have been impacted by Argentina's temporary grain export tax suspension, leading to around 40 cargoes of soybeans registered for export, primarily booked by China [1] - U.S.-China trade tensions have intensified, with new tariffs imposed by the U.S. and retaliatory measures from China, placing American soybean farmers in a challenging position [2] - U.S. soybean farmers are frustrated as they have made zero sales to China in the current crop marketing year due to a 20% retaliatory tariff from China, allowing competitors like Brazil and Argentina to capture market share [5] Group 2 - China typically purchases about 90% of Argentina's soybean exports, and while recent sales have increased, total exports remain within expected norms [6] - China's strong demand for soybeans suggests that while Argentina may meet short-term needs, global demand will continue to rise, indicating a bullish outlook for U.S. and global soybean markets in the long term [7]

Market Trends - Soybean oil futures fell to the lowest in more than three months [1] - Lack of demand from China for US supplies pressured the entire soy complex [1]

Soybean oil futures fell the most in a week as traders digested US government proposals to reallocate exempted volumes under biofuel blending requirements https://t.co/kJYAWR2twc ...

Market Trends - Soybean oil futures gained for a fifth day [1] Regulatory Environment - Traders awaited biofuel blending figures from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) [1]

Soybean oil fell, extending a losing streak to a fourth day, as biofuels policy uncertainty and the approaching holiday weekend helped weigh on prices https://t.co/a9MeVh0A5u ...