受美联储官员鹰派表态影响，现货黄金与白银周五遭遇抛售潮。11月15日凌晨，现货黄金跌破4040美 元/盎司关口，最低触及4031.82美元/盎司，较24小时前创下的4210美元高位累计下跌近180美元，日内 跌幅超3%。截至上午9时，黄金报4082.16美元/盎司，日内跌幅2.13%。现货白银同步重挫逾4%，失守 51美元关口，现报50.517美元/盎司。 CME美联储观察工具显示，美联储12月维持利率不变的概率已升至54.2%，较一个月前大幅攀升。与之 对应，降息25个基点的概率从94.4%骤降至45.8%。多位美联储官员最新表态强化了政策紧缩预期，洛 根明确表示难以支持12月降息，强调需看到通胀加速回落或就业市场显著降温的明确证据。卡什卡利对 12月决策持观望态度，穆萨莱姆认为当前政策更接近中性水平，柯林斯则强调维持利率的必要性。 尽管米兰等官员主张数据支持转向鸽派，但戴利重申维持2%通胀目标的立场，并强调需等待更多经济 数据指引。市场分析指出，美联储内部对政策路径的分歧加剧，但维持利率不变的共识正在形成，这导 致贵金属市场出现剧烈波动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - US gold futures reached a record high amid uncertainty regarding potential country-specific import tariffs on commonly traded gold bars, which could significantly impact global supply chains for gold [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reaction - December US gold futures increased by 1.2% to $3,494.10 per ounce after hitting a record of $3,534.10 earlier in the session [2][7]. - The spread between US gold futures and spot prices widened to $100, with spot gold dipping 0.1% to $3,394.26 per ounce but up 0.9% for the week [3]. Group 2: Implications of Tariffs - Analysts are awaiting further clarity on the potential US tariffs on gold deliveries, which could significantly affect Switzerland, the leading hub for gold refining and transit [4]. - The Swiss Precious Metals Association expressed concerns about the tariffs' implications for the gold industry and is in active discussions with stakeholders [6]. - Long-term effects of the new tariffs may benefit US refiners by transforming large 400-oz bars into retail units [6].

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, maintains its holdings at 935.65 tons as of June 5, 2025, amidst fluctuating gold prices influenced by market sentiment and economic data [2][7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of June 5, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total holdings remain unchanged at 935.65 tons of gold [2][7]. - The gold price experienced volatility, peaking above $3400 per ounce before closing at $3352.65, down $19.39 or 0.58% [7]. Group 2: Market Influences - Poor economic data from the U.S., including higher-than-expected initial jobless claims, has increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, contributing to gold price fluctuations [7]. - Metals Focus predicts that global central banks will purchase 1000 tons of gold in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of significant gold buying [7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend for gold, with resistance levels at $3400, $3438, and $3450, while short-term support is at $3300 [9]. - The gold market shows a strong momentum, with the relative strength index (RSI) around 57, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment [8]. Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has shown stronger recent performance, reaching its highest level since February 2012, with a current gold-silver ratio of 94, down from 105 in April [8]. - Analysts warn of potential volatility in the silver market, predicting possible sharp movements in either direction [8].

Group 1 - Silver prices in New York increased by 4%, reaching $36.05 per ounce [1] - Spot silver rose nearly 4%, currently priced at $35.78 per ounce [1] - Spot gold saw an increase of 0.8%, now at $3400.16 per ounce [1]