Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the impact of tariffs and market strategies for the fourth quarter of 2025 - Discussion on the strategic value of China's rare earth resources Core Points and Arguments Market Conditions and Strategies - Short-term market volatility is heavily influenced by sentiment, with technical support levels being more critical than fundamentals [1][2] - Investors who have reduced positions may consider selectively buying quality structural assets, while those who have not should avoid hasty adjustments based on emotional market fluctuations [1][2] - The U.S.-China tariff negotiations may see short-term progress, but long-term uncertainties are increasing, with high tariffs being detrimental to both sides [1][2][3] - The current market liquidity is abundant, leading to a pursuit of scarce returns, which has resulted in localized inflation [1][5] Asset Performance and Allocation - In Q4, the focus for asset allocation is on gold, dividends, and growth assets, which have all seen a rise this year, breaking traditional asset pricing logic [1][4] - The performance of these asset classes is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, global decoupling, and central bank gold purchases [1][4] - The U.S. market shows a disparity between strong growth in the tech sector and weakness in other areas, exacerbated by the acceleration of AI investments [1][6] Credit Cycle and Economic Outlook - The applicability of the Merrill Lynch clock framework in China is limited due to significant policy expectations and evident disparities in economic performance [2][7] - Future asset rotation can be analyzed through the intensity of credit expansion in both government and private sectors, with a focus on indirect financing [2][8] - The credit cycles in the U.S. and China may diverge, with the U.S. potentially moving towards recovery while China may experience stagnation or slight slowdown [2][9] Export Dynamics and Trade Relations - China's exports have exceeded expectations, with a year-to-date growth rate of 6.1% in dollar terms, despite a nearly 20% decline in exports to the U.S. [2][12][14] - The structure of China's exports is changing, with an increasing proportion of intermediate goods, which are essential for industrial production [2][12][13] - The strategic value of rare earth resources is highlighted, with China holding a dominant position in both reserves and the entire supply chain [2][21][22] Rare Earth Resources and Strategic Implications - China's rare earth resources account for 34% of global reserves, with a significant share in heavy rare earths [2][21] - Recent export control measures have enhanced China's control over rare earth resources, impacting global supply chains and U.S. companies [2][22] - The demand for high-performance permanent magnet materials is expected to grow, with a projected annual increase of over 10% in the coming years [2][22] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The current geopolitical landscape and the restructuring of the global dollar monetary system are influencing asset performance and investment strategies [1][4] - The potential for localized inflation due to abundant liquidity and the pursuit of scarce returns is a critical factor for investors to consider [1][5] - The implications of U.S.-China trade relations on agricultural commodities, particularly soybeans, are significant, with price pressures observed due to tariffs [2][17][19]

更为关键的是，美联储货币政策路径预期出现重大调整。根据CME联邦基金利率期货显示，当前市场 预期9月启动降息的概率已从峰值回落至74%，较此前预期的7月首次行动时间节点明显后移。这种政策 预期的"鹰派修正"，叠加美元阶段性走强与美债收益率上行形成的共振压力，导致黄金价格陷入多空交 织的复杂局面。 今日周四（5月15日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于32.06一线上方，今日开盘于32.23美元/盎司，截至 发稿，国际白银暂报32.09美元/盎司，下跌0.37%，最高触及32.29元/盎司，最低下探32.08美元/盎司， 目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 美元指数探底后强势反弹，令黄金市场承压加剧。周三（7月10日），衡量美元对六种主要货币汇率的 美元指数微升0.08%至101.04，上演戏剧性逆转——该指数早盘一度下挫0.7%，随后展开强劲反攻。富 瑞集团全球外汇主管Brad Bechtel指出，尽管亚洲货币波动率仍处高位，但技术面与市场情绪共振下， 美元短期或延续反弹格局。 债市方面，美债收益率曲线显著上移，10年期基准国债收益率突破4.5%关键心理关口，最高触及 4.536%，创近六周新 ...