Key Takeaways Alibaba posted Q1 revenues of $34.6B, up 2% year over year and slightly above consensus estimates.Earnings fell 10% Y/Y and missed estimates as strategic spending cut into profitability.Earnings fell 10% Y/Y and missed estimates as strategic spending cut into profitability.Alibaba (BABA) reported non-GAAP earnings of $2.06 per ADS in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, which lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.29%. In domestic currency, the company reported earnings of RMB 14.75, down 10% y ...

Flash | 29 Aug 2025 07:28:03 ET │ 12 pages Alibaba Group Holding (BABA.N) FY1Q26 Revs +10% yoy (Excl. Deconsolidation); Adj. EBITA/NP Missed Consensus CITI'S TAKE Ali reported mixed FY1Q26 with total revs +2% yoy to Rmb247.7bn, 2/2.2% below our estimate/consensus of Rmb252.6/253.2bn. Excluding deconsolidated revs, like-for-like revs would have been grown by +10% yoy. 1) Total Alibaba China E-commerce Group +10% yoy to Rmb140.1bn, of which CMR +10% yoy to Rmb89.3bn; direct sales, logistics and others +7% yoy ...

Summary of Alibaba Group's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Alibaba Group - **Date**: August 30, 2025 - **Overall Revenue**: Increased by 10% year-over-year, reaching RMB 247.7 billion, excluding Gaoxin and Intime [2][5] Key Business Segments Performance Core Commerce - **China E-commerce CMR**: Grew by 10% year-over-year, driven by events like the '618 Shopping Festival' [1][5] - **Taobao App**: Monthly active buyers increased by 25% year-over-year in August [1][5] - **Quick Commerce**: Achieved peak daily order volume of 120 million, with monthly active consumers growing by 200% to 300 million [1][6] Cloud Intelligence Group - **Revenue Growth**: Accelerated to 26% year-over-year, driven by AI applications and higher customer acceptance [2][16] - **AI-related Revenues**: Grew at triple-digit rates for eight consecutive quarters, now exceeding 20% of external commercialization revenues [1][2] International Digital Commerce Group - **Revenue Growth**: Saw a 19% year-over-year increase [2] Financial Metrics - **Adjusted EBITDA**: Decreased by 14% due to strategic investments in quick commerce [2][5] - **Operating Cash Flow**: Stood at RMB 20.7 billion, with free cash outflow at RMB 18.8 billion due to investments in cloud and AI [1][2] Investment Strategy - **Total Investment Plan**: RMB 380 billion over three years for cloud and AI infrastructure [3][4] - **Recent CAPEX**: RMB 38.6 billion this quarter, with over RMB 100 billion invested in the past four quarters [1][4] Quick Commerce Developments - **User Engagement**: Quick commerce drove a 20% increase in Taobao app's daily active users in August [6][9] - **Logistics Capacity**: Daily active delivery personnel tripled to over two million since April, creating over a million new jobs [1][6][10] E-commerce Segment Insights - **Revenue**: E-commerce segment reported revenues of RMB 1,401 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase [5] - **Operational Efficiency**: Focus on enhancing user experience and optimizing operational efficiency through supply chain integration [5][10] Future Outlook - **Cloud Growth**: Anticipated to sustain momentum due to increased demand for AI applications across various sectors [16][22] - **CMR Growth**: Expected to maintain rapid growth, supported by improved take rates and increased traffic from quick commerce [26][29] Strategic Objectives - **Focus on AI and Cloud**: Prioritizing comprehensive capabilities for developers and expanding into new use cases [22][23] - **Long-term Value Creation**: Investments in quick commerce and AI are expected to drive significant long-term value despite short-term profitability challenges [36][37][38] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The integration of Instant Commerce into the Taobao app has increased traffic and user engagement, leading to higher advertising revenue [37] - **Investment Efficiency**: Emphasis on achieving efficiency through a robust foundation of merchants, fulfillment capacity, and active consumers [35] This summary encapsulates the key points from Alibaba Group's conference call, highlighting the company's performance, strategic investments, and future outlook across its various business segments.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Food Delivery Platforms in China - **Key Players**: Alibaba (BABA), Meituan, JD.com (JD) Core Insights - **Curbing Competition**: The three major food delivery platforms have committed to reducing "disorderly competition" and will stop price-based rivalries, including 'zero-cost purchases' and allowing merchants to independently engage in promotional activities [1][2][3] - **Regulatory Influence**: This decision follows meetings with the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) and Shanghai market regulators, indicating a peak in competitive intensity expected in Q3 2025, with caution advised for the competitive landscape thereafter [2][3] Financial Performance and Stock Recommendations - **Stock Preferences**: Analysts prefer Alibaba (BABA) over Meituan and JD.com. They believe that near-term earnings pressure for Alibaba is already reflected in its stock price, while the market undervalues its potential as a leading AI enabler in China [3] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Alibaba is trading at 12x F27e - Meituan is trading at 19x F26e - JD.com is expected to face higher revenue comparisons starting September 2025 and is projected to remain a minor player in food delivery and quick commerce long-term [3] Competitive Landscape - **Subsidy Programs**: - JD announced a RMB10 billion subsidy program for its food delivery business [4] - Meituan pledged a RMB100 billion investment in demand delivery over three years [4] - Alibaba initiated a RMB50 billion subsidy program [4] - **Order Growth**: - JD's daily food delivery orders grew rapidly, reaching 25 million by June 2025 and 150 million by July 2025 [4] - Ele.me (Alibaba's service) also saw significant growth, surpassing 60 million daily orders by June 2025 [4] Market Dynamics - **Expected Subsidies**: Total subsidies are projected to be RMB30 billion and RMB50 billion in Q2 and Q3 2025, respectively, marking a peak in investment [5][8] - **Profitability Outlook**: Long-term profitability for Meituan has been revised downwards, with food delivery gross transaction value (GTV) margins expected to be below 3% and Instashopping below 2% [8] Risks and Considerations - **Market Risks**: - Potential for irrational competition to return in e-commerce - Weaker-than-expected macroeconomic conditions and antitrust regulations could impact profitability [13][15] - **Growth Opportunities**: - Faster-than-expected margin expansion and successful penetration in lower-tier cities could drive user growth [14] Conclusion - The food delivery industry in China is undergoing significant changes due to regulatory pressures and competitive dynamics. Analysts remain cautious but see potential in leading players like Alibaba, while also highlighting the risks associated with ongoing competition and market conditions.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba, Meituan, and PDD, while highlighting JD as a potential multiple repair/re-rating story [14][15][18]. Core Insights - The competition intensity among eCommerce players, particularly Alibaba, JD, and Meituan, in food delivery and instant shopping has escalated, with an estimated aggregate investment of Rmb25 billion (approximately US$3 billion) in the June quarter alone [9]. - The report estimates a total addressable market (TAM) of Rmb2.4 trillion for food delivery and Rmb1.5 trillion for instant shopping by 2030, driven by increased platform subsidies and user acquisitions [4][40]. - The ultimate goal for these companies is to become the "everyday app" for transactions, facilitating cross-selling across various goods and services [12][56]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The food delivery competitive landscape is rapidly evolving, with Meituan achieving 90 million daily orders and Alibaba's Taobao Instant Commerce reaching 60 million peak daily orders [34]. - The report anticipates a re-acceleration of on-demand eCommerce penetration in China, projecting a TAM of Rmb1.5 trillion by 2030 [35][42]. Financial Projections - The report outlines three scenarios for food delivery and instant shopping, with a base case projecting a 5.5:3.5:1 market share between Meituan, Alibaba, and JD [10][27]. - Estimated losses for Alibaba and JD in food delivery are projected at Rmb-41 billion and Rmb-26 billion, respectively, over the next 12 months [9]. Company-Specific Insights - JD is expected to disproportionately benefit if it stabilizes its food delivery scale, while PDD is positioned to have a more resilient profit setup due to its lack of direct involvement in the food delivery competition [10][18]. - Meituan's strategic pivot towards centralized kitchens aims to enhance food safety and reduce delivery costs, which could improve long-term unit economics [11][54]. User Engagement and Traffic - The report notes a significant increase in daily active users (DAU) for both JD and Taobao, with a combined increase of 50 million DAU to approximately 410 million [12][56]. - The consolidation of offerings into a single app is seen as a strategy to monetize increased engagement from high-frequency food delivery [57].