Core Insights - Temu, a Chinese eCommerce platform owned by PDD, is facing challenges in competing with Amazon due to U.S. tariffs and restrictions on pricing for branded items [2][3][4] Group 1: Business Model Challenges - Temu has been informed by American companies that it cannot offer lower prices than Amazon on branded products, requiring them to provide materially different items [2] - The company is struggling to adapt its business model following the end of the "de minimis exemption," which previously allowed it to import lower-cost products from China without customs duties [3] - Monthly active users on Temu's U.S. app have decreased by 54%, dropping to 37 million from March to mid-July [3] Group 2: Advertising and Market Competition - A pause in U.S. advertising spending in June contributed to the decline in user engagement, although Temu resumed advertising later that month [4] - Temu is attempting to attract third-party sellers with new incentives, such as lower fees, but faces the challenge of Amazon matching any lower prices offered [4] - Amazon's scale allows it to absorb losses longer than smaller competitors like Temu, making it difficult for Temu to gain market share without significant financial losses [5] Group 3: Industry Landscape - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Walmart gaining an edge in same-day delivery, a critical area for consumer satisfaction [6] - Amazon continues to excel in traditional fulfillment methods, such as two-day and next-day shipping, but faces increasing competition from Walmart in the grocery sector [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies mentioned Core Insights - Shein and Temu are shifting their marketing focus towards Europe due to declining performance in the US market, particularly after the end of de minimis exemptions [1] - App downloads for Shein and Temu in the US have sharply declined, while the rate of decline in Europe has slowed, indicating a potential strategic pivot [3][5] - Weekly active users for Shein and Temu in the US began to decline in April, suggesting a negative trend prior to the regulatory changes [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Shein and Temu's app downloads in the US via paid traffic have closely tracked those in five key European markets until recently, with a notable decline in the US [3] - The decline in app downloads for Shein and Temu in the US was approximately 62% in May compared to previous months, while the decline in Europe was less severe [5] Competitive Landscape - Increased competition from online discounters has been noted, with Sainsbury's reporting accelerated sales for Argos, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [1] - H&M and Zara have not experienced a significant increase in app usage or web traffic following the changes affecting Shein and Temu, suggesting that the competitive dynamics may not favor them in the current environment [9]

Core Viewpoint - The closure of the de minimis rule and the imposition of high tariffs on Chinese imports have disrupted the business models of Temu and Shein in the U.S. However, experts believe these e-commerce companies will continue to be significant players in the American online retail market [1][4]. Impact of Trade Policy - The de minimis rule, which previously exempted U.S. imports worth $800 from tariffs, has been closed for shipments from China, exposing Temu and Shein to tariffs as high as 120% or a flat fee that will increase from $100 to $200 [2][3]. - The removal of this exemption has led to rising prices on Temu and Shein, with Temu ceasing direct shipments from outside the U.S. altogether [3]. Competitive Strategies - Despite the challenges, experts assert that Temu and Shein have contingency plans and are capable of adapting to the new tariff environment [5][6]. - Both companies have been accelerating localization strategies, onboarding goods from American sellers to mitigate tariff impacts [7][8]. Pricing Dynamics - Prices on Shein have reportedly increased between 5% and 50% across various categories, with the most significant hikes in toys, games, and beauty products [13]. - Even with price increases, Temu and Shein may still offer products at significantly lower prices compared to competitors like Amazon, maintaining their price competitiveness [14][15]. Supply Chain Adaptability - Temu and Shein's success is attributed to their agile supply chains that quickly adapt to consumer trends, with Shein employing small-batch production to efficiently test and scale products [17]. - The companies utilize effective marketing strategies, including gamification and social media engagement, to maintain consumer interest and drive sales [20][21].