Shares of Canada Goose, Timberland and Vans parent VF Corp., and footwear maker Rocky Brand surged Tuesday after Baird upgraded the stocks ahead of a "favorable 2026 macro scenario." https://t.co/UTo56D2xIv ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - For FY2026Q1 (March 30, 2025 - June 28, 2025), VF achieved revenue of $1.76 billion, a slight decline of 2% year-on-year at fixed exchange rates, which is better than market expectations and the company's prior guidance [2][4] - The gross margin increased by 2.7 percentage points to 53.9%, driven mainly by improved discounts and exchange rate factors [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - **By Brand**: - Vans continued to face pressure with a revenue decline of 15% to $500 million - The North Face grew by 5% to $560 million - Timberland increased by 9% to $260 million [5] - **By Region**: - Revenue in the Americas declined by 3% to $940 million - EMEA saw a decrease of 2% to $550 million - APAC grew by 4% to $270 million, with Greater China down by 6% [5] - **By Channel**: - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue fell by 4% to $720 million - Wholesale channel revenue remained flat at $1.04 billion [5] Inventory and Tariff Impact - At the end of FY2026Q1, the company's inventory increased by 4% year-on-year to $2.14 billion, maintaining overall healthy inventory quality [10] - Tariff expectations are projected to impact gross profit by $60-70 million in FY2026, with half of this expected to occur in FY2026 [10] Performance Guidance - For FY2026Q2, the company expects revenue to decline by 2%-4% year-on-year at fixed exchange rates, with adjusted operating profit projected between $260 million and $290 million [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market has shown incredible resiliency in 2025, with the S&P 500 nearing new all-time highs despite trade wars and economic uncertainty [1] - There are solid companies trading at reasonable valuations that are worth buying as August approaches, a historically weak month for markets [1] Group 2: Alibaba (BABA) - Alibaba's shares are starting to recover after a slump, driven by an improving Chinese economy and strong demand for cloud services, with potential to double in price within five years [4] - The e-commerce marketplaces Taobao and Tmall reported a 12% year-over-year growth in customer management revenue for the March-ending quarter, primarily from fees charged to third-party merchants [5] - Alibaba's revenue growth in e-commerce is supported by initiatives like the integration of Cainiao logistics and new software service fees [6] - Alibaba Cloud is experiencing rapid growth, with AI-related product revenue increasing at a triple-digit rate for seven consecutive quarters, positioning the company for strong growth over the next decade [7] - The stock is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 13.5, which is considered a bargain compared to the average S&P 500 P/E ratio of 30, indicating potential for significant upside [8] Group 3: Lululemon (LULU) - Lululemon's stock has declined approximately 45% in 2025, but it is viewed as oversold and trading at a bargain price [9] - The company reported a 7% year-over-year sales increase in the fiscal first quarter, but comparable sales were only up 1%, with a 2% decrease in the Americas region [11] - Lululemon's P/E ratio is currently at 14, and it maintains a strong operating margin of 18.5%, despite a slight decline due to tariffs [12] - Sales in China increased by 22% year-over-year in Q1, providing a positive outlook amidst challenges in the Americas market [13] Group 4: VF Corp (VFC) - VF Corp is considered undervalued, with its stock down about 85% from its peak in 2021, making it a potential investment opportunity [14] - The company showed signs of a turnaround in fiscal Q1, with solid growth in core brands like Timberland (up 11%) and The North Face (up 6%), despite a 14% decline in Vans [16] - VF Corp trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 0.5, indicating upside potential if it can achieve a profit margin of 5%, which would equate to a P/E ratio of 10 [17] - Continued progress in the turnaround could lead to the stock doubling or tripling in value [18]

Core Insights - V.F. Corporation (VFC) reported a narrower-than-expected loss per share in Q1 fiscal 2026, with a sales beat and improved earnings year over year despite a dip in revenues [1][3][9] - The company is progressing with its Reinvent program, aiming for cost savings and improved operating profitability [1][13] Revenue Performance - VFC's net revenues for Q1 fiscal 2026 were $1.76 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.69 billion, with a year-over-year decline of approximately 2% in constant currency [3][4] - The North Face and Timberland brands continued to perform well, while Altra showed strong growth; however, Vans faced challenges due to channel rationalization [2][14] Segment Analysis - Revenues in the Outdoor segment increased by 8% year over year to $812.5 million, while the Active segment saw a decline of 10% to $699.7 million [7] - The All-Other segment reported a revenue increase of 4% year over year to $248.5 million [7] Financial Position - VFC ended Q1 with cash and cash equivalents of $642.4 million and long-term debt of $3.56 billion, with net debt down $1.4 billion from the previous year [8] - The company declared a quarterly dividend of 9 cents per share, payable on September 18, 2025 [8] Future Outlook - For Q2 fiscal 2026, VFC expects revenues to decline by 2% to 4% in constant currency, with adjusted operating income projected between $260 million and $290 million [12] - For the full fiscal 2026, VFC anticipates growth in adjusted operating income and cash flow, driven by strong performance from The North Face, Timberland, and Altra [13][14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q1 revenue of $1.8 billion, flat on a reported basis and down 2% year-over-year in constant dollars, which was better than the guidance of down 3% to down 5% [31][32] - Adjusted gross margin increased by 200 basis points to 54.1%, driven by higher quality inventory and lower discounts [34] - Adjusted loss per share was $0.24 compared to $0.35 in Q1 of the previous year [35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vans revenue decreased by 15%, with 40% of the decline attributed to channel rationalization actions [12][33] - The North Face grew by 5%, with strong performance in footwear and bags, aiming for higher growth rates in the future [14][32] - Timberland's revenue increased by 9%, reflecting growth across all regions and channels [16][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The APAC region grew by 4%, while the Americas and EMEA regions saw declines of 3% and 2%, respectively [33] - Excluding Vans, the Americas region was up 3% year-over-year [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on transforming its operations, improving cost structures, and aiming for growth after two years of resetting [9][11] - A unified product and marketing engine is being built across brands globally, with a focus on premiumization and improved inventory management [10][29] - The company aims to reduce leverage to below 2.5 times by fiscal 2028 while investing in growth [10][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in turning the company back into a growth entity despite current macroeconomic challenges [6][9] - The anticipated impact of tariffs is expected to negatively affect gross profit by $60 million to $70 million in fiscal 2026, but management believes they can mitigate these impacts [38][39] - The company is optimistic about the upcoming back-to-school season and plans to invest more in marketing [110] Other Important Information - The company has changed its segment reporting to better reflect key areas of focus across brands [43] - The company is pursuing a $1.5 billion asset-backed revolving loan to enhance liquidity and flexibility [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: What were the expectations for the Warp Tour and its impact? - Management expected modest impact initially but saw enormous demand with tickets selling out quickly, indicating strong engagement and merchandise sales [49][52] Question: Can you clarify the $60 million to $70 million gross profit impact from tariffs? - Management confirmed that this impact is mostly in the back half of the year and will be offset through pricing and other actions [57][58] Question: What are the long-term views on gross margin improvement? - Management sees opportunities for gross margin improvement across all brands, particularly through premiumization and better product mix [66][70] Question: How do you expect unit volumes to be affected by price increases? - Management indicated that unit volumes might decrease in line with price increases, but the overall impact is uncertain due to industry-wide effects [78][79] Question: What is the outlook for free cash flow and net debt? - Management expects free cash flow to be up year-over-year despite fluctuations in quarterly performance, and net debt is anticipated to decline [118][120]

Summary of PotlatchDeltic (PCH) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: PotlatchDeltic (PCH) - **Date**: June 04, 2025 - **Focus**: Timberland and real estate operations Key Points Industry Dynamics - **Demand and Supply**: An increase in demand or a reduction in supply, particularly from Canada, is expected to create price tension in the timber market. The lack of expansion among competitors is viewed positively for future pricing [1] - **M&A Activity**: The timberland M&A market has been muted, but high-quality transactions are achieving strong pricing. There is a disconnect between public market perceptions and private market valuations of timber [3][4] - **Timberland Valuation**: Strong pricing has been observed for timberland values, with the company focusing on acquisitions that exceed their cost of capital [5][6] Financial Strategies - **Capital Allocation**: The company has prioritized share repurchases over aggressive timberland acquisitions, indicating a strategic approach to capital allocation [5][9] - **Recent Transactions**: The company sold 34,000 acres for over $58 million, demonstrating the ability to capitalize on market disconnects [6][7] Natural Climate Solutions - **Solar Opportunities**: The company has 38,000 acres under solar option contracts, with a net present value of approximately $475 million. This represents a significant opportunity compared to traditional timberland operations [10][11] - **Growth Potential**: The company anticipates increasing solar option acreage to over 45,000 acres, with potential for up to 75,000 acres suitable for solar development [12] Regulatory Challenges - **Project Delays**: The primary challenge for solar project development is navigating regulatory processes and obtaining interconnection agreements with utilities [16] Lithium Extraction - **Lithium Deposits**: The company is exploring lithium extraction in Arkansas, specifically in the Smackover formation, which is known for its significant lithium deposits. The extraction will be conducted by independent parties, allowing the company to earn royalties while maintaining timberland management [17][18] - **Lease Agreements**: The company has signed its first lease agreement for lithium extraction and expects to sign additional leases in the future [19] Real Estate Market - **Chenal Valley Development**: The real estate segment in Chenal Valley is performing comparably to previous years, with healthy demand for lots. The market is experiencing a bifurcation, with higher-end lots moving faster than lower-end lots [29][30] - **Rural Land Demand**: There is a notable increase in demand for rural land, driven by various factors including investment diversification and recreational use. The company expects to exceed its guidance for rural land sales due to strong pricing [31][32] Additional Insights - **Market Trends**: The demand for energy, particularly solar, is expected to grow, aligning with national trends towards energy independence [14] - **Regulatory Environment**: The company is closely monitoring the regulatory landscape regarding renewable energy incentives, which could impact future projects [12][13] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the PotlatchDeltic conference call, highlighting the company's strategic focus on timberland management, renewable energy opportunities, and real estate development.

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that Tmall and Taobao platforms experienced negative growth in various categories in April 2025, with the highest growth seen in Jin Hong Group [7] - Deckers reported a 16.3% revenue increase to $4.986 billion for FY2025, with operating profit rising by 27.1% to $1.179 billion, and a gross margin increase of 2.3 percentage points to 57.9% [15] - VF Corporation's revenue decreased by 4% to $9.504 billion for FY2025, with a net loss of $190 million, although the loss narrowed compared to the previous year [16] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Tmall and Taobao platforms saw negative growth across categories in April 2025, with Jin Hong Group showing the highest growth [7] - Deckers' FY2025 revenue grew by 16.3% to $4.986 billion, with operating profit increasing by 27.1% to $1.179 billion, and a gross margin of 57.9% [15] - VF Corporation's revenue fell by 4% to $9.504 billion, with a net loss of $190 million, but the loss was less than the previous year [16] - Amphenol's Q1 2025 revenue was $1.473 billion, with a net profit increase of 2539.22% [17] Market Trends - The textile and apparel industry saw a decline in stock performance, with the SW textile and apparel sector down 1.31% [20] - The cotton price index in China increased by 0.29% as of May 23, 2025, while the medium import cotton price index rose by 1.06% [30] - The USDA forecasts a 2.7% decrease in global cotton production for the 2025/2026 season [40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests short-term recommendations for companies with high U.S. revenue exposure and significant prior declines, while mid-term recommendations focus on companies with high overseas exposure [18][19] - Long-term recommendations include companies with growth potential, such as Zhejiang Natural and Kai Run Co., which have favorable market positions [19]

Group 1: Amer Sports Performance - Amer Sports reported Q1 2025 revenue of $1.473 billion, a 23% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations [1] - The company's operating profit grew 97% to $214 million, with an operating margin increase of 5.4 percentage points to 14.5% [1] - The Arc'teryx brand led the growth with a 28% revenue increase to $664 million, and a 32% increase when adjusted for fixed exchange rates [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance in China - The Greater China region saw a significant revenue increase of 43% to $446 million [2] - Arc'teryx is identified as a key driver of growth in the outdoor industry, with the professional outdoor sports community being a crucial support [3] Group 3: Lululemon's Growth - Lululemon's Q4 2024 revenue in mainland China grew 46%, contributing to a 41% annual growth in the region, outperforming other markets [6] - The company's global revenue for the fiscal year reached $10.6 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, with a net profit of $1.815 billion, up 17.1% [7] Group 4: VF Corporation's Challenges - VF Corporation reported a 4% decline in total revenue for FY 2025, amounting to $9.5 billion, with Q4 revenue down 5% to $2.14 billion [10] - Vans brand significantly underperformed, with a 16% revenue drop to $2.35 billion for the year [12] Group 5: Birkenstock's Performance - Birkenstock reported Q2 2025 revenue of €574 million, a 19% year-over-year increase, with a net profit growth of 47% to €105 million [13] - The company achieved double-digit growth across all major markets, with the Asia-Pacific region growing 30% to €47.8 million [15] Group 6: Under Armour's Transition - Under Armour's Q4 2025 revenue declined 11% to $1.2 billion, with an annual revenue drop of 9% to $5.2 billion, although it exceeded Wall Street expectations [16][18] - The company emphasized the importance of the Chinese market, which contributes approximately half of its Asia-Pacific revenue [18]

Market Overview - U.S. futures are down across the board, with the Dow down 345 points (-0.81%), S&P 500 down 38 points (-0.64%), Nasdaq down 146 points (-0.68%), and Russell 2000 down 21 points (-1.02%) [2] - Major indexes have been flat over the past five trading days, with the Dow showing a slight increase of 1% over the past month, while all indexes are up double-digits [2] Q1 Earnings Reports - Target's Q1 earnings were disappointing, with earnings of $1.30 per share missing the Zacks consensus of $1.65 by 19.75%. Revenues of $23.85 billion were 1.58% short of expectations. The company has cut its growth forecast to negative from slightly positive [3] - Lowe's reported better-than-expected Q1 results, with earnings of $2.92 per share beating the Zacks consensus by 4 cents, and revenues of $20.93 billion slightly exceeding the anticipated $20.92 billion. Shares are up 1.75% in early trading [4] - The TJX Companies modestly beat expectations with earnings of 92 cents per share, 2 cents above estimates, and revenues of $13.11 billion, surpassing the anticipated $13.0 billion. Comparable sales grew by 3% year over year [5] - VF Corp. reported mixed results, with a narrower-than-expected loss of 13 cents per share compared to the estimated 15 cents, but revenues of $2.14 billion fell short of the $2.18 billion consensus. Shares are down 14% due to a challenging macro environment [6] Upcoming Earnings - Urban Outfitters is expected to report solid growth in both top and bottom lines year over year. Additionally, Snowflake and Zoom Communications will also release their quarterly results later today [7]

Core Insights - V.F. Corporation (VFC) reported a revenue of $2.14 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 9.7% and an EPS of -$0.13, an improvement from -$0.32 a year ago [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.18 billion by 1.62%, while the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate of -$0.15 by 13.33% [1] Revenue Performance - Geographic Revenue: - Americas: $995.20 million, below the estimated $1.11 billion, a decline of 11.6% year-over-year [4] - Asia-Pacific: $336.20 million, below the estimated $355.65 million, a decline of 11% year-over-year [4] - Europe: $812.30 million, exceeding the estimated $744.21 million, a decline of 6.6% year-over-year [4] - Revenue by Segment: - Active: $645.32 million, below the estimated $753.22 million, a decline of 29.4% year-over-year [4] - Work: $222.17 million, slightly above the estimated $221.17 million, a decline of 7.6% year-over-year [4] - Outdoor: $1.28 billion, exceeding the estimated $1.22 billion, an increase of 4.7% year-over-year [4] - Revenue by Brand: - Dickies: $139.30 million, slightly above the estimated $138.68 million, a decline of 14.2% year-over-year [4] - Timberland: $376 million, exceeding the estimated $337.45 million, an increase of 10.1% year-over-year [4] - Vans: $492.60 million, below the estimated $571.91 million, a decline of 22% year-over-year [4] - The North Face: $834.50 million, exceeding the estimated $792.59 million, an increase of 2.5% year-over-year [4] - Revenue by Channel: - Direct-To-Consumer: $920.80 million, below the estimated $1 billion, a decline of 15.8% year-over-year [4] Stock Performance - V.F. shares have returned +32.3% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +12.7% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]