TopCon组件

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光伏见底,没那么简单
Hu Xiu· 2025-06-24 06:04
Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a paradoxical situation in 2025, characterized by both vibrant exhibitions and severe structural adjustments, indicating a complex market environment that requires careful navigation [1]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The SNEC photovoltaic exhibition in June 2025 attracted over 3,600 exhibitors and an expected 500,000 attendees, showcasing the industry's ongoing interest despite underlying challenges [1]. - The photovoltaic industry is facing unprecedented restructuring and deep adjustments, with significant overcapacity and price wars leading to substantial losses for major companies [1]. - As of June 19, 2025, the average prices for silicon materials, monocrystalline N-type wafers, battery cells, and monocrystalline TopCon modules have decreased by 11.42%, 9.28%, 10.52%, and 4.22% respectively [2]. Group 2: Capital and Financial Dynamics - The capital landscape for the photovoltaic industry has shifted, with traditional funding sources like capital market financing and bank credit becoming increasingly limited, leaving only partial support from local subsidies [4]. - Companies are resorting to price wars instead of reducing production rates, as they receive subsidies that incentivize maintaining higher operational levels [5]. - The expectation of a significant production cut in the third quarter is emerging, with anticipated operational rates decreasing by 10%-15% [7]. Group 3: Technological Differentiation and Market Strategies - The key to breaking through the current market challenges lies in differentiation strategies, particularly in battery technology, as the industry transitions from PERC to newer technologies like TopCon, HJT, and XBC [10][11]. - The increasing recognition of BC batteries at the SNEC exhibition indicates a shift in market dynamics, although large-scale production remains limited [13][14]. - Companies like TCL are exploring integrated solutions combining photovoltaic systems with energy storage and charging stations, aiming to create new market opportunities [17][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry insiders suggest that the photovoltaic sector may require 1 to 2 years to navigate through the current downturn and find a sustainable path forward [9]. - Companies that successfully avoid homogenization and identify unique market positions are likely to emerge from the cyclical challenges more rapidly [20].