证券研究报告·公司点评报告·光伏设备 隆基绿能（601012） 2025 中报点评：Q2 环比减亏，BC 量产逐步 推进 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 129,498 | 82,582 | 65,933 | 83,905 | 102,951 | | 同比（%） | 0.39 | (36.23) | (20.16) | 27.26 | 22.70 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10,751 | (8,618) | (4,484) | 3,119 | 7,268 | | 同比（%） | (27.41) | (180.15) | 47.96 | 169.55 | 133.04 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.42 | (1.14) | (0.59) | 0.41 | 0.96 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 11.64 | (14.53) | (27.92) | 40.14 | ...

根据开标结果,标段一投标报价0.646~0.751元/W,均价0.71元/W,47家企业中仅5 家企业报价低于0.7元/W;标段二共有26家企业参与投标,投标报价0.708~0.843元/W, 均价0.746元/W。 相较于InfoLink给出的8月21日ToPCon组件在集中式和分布式市场均价分别为0.67元 /W和0.69元/W,招标均价有明显上涨,相较于此前光伏组件报价一度跌破0.6元/W, 行业"反内养"取得一定成效,市场情绪得以提振。但仍需关注后续项目招标价格。 目前光伏市场实际需求仍表现较为疲软、供需结构改善才能长期支撑市场价格。虽 然7月份光伏新增装机量表现大幅下滑,但短期来看多晶硅期货仍建议低位多单,期 货投机建议缩短操作周期,可配置一定期权控制风险。 8月25日多晶硅价格走势 市场快讯-华电集团20GW组件集采招标,带动多晶硅价格上涨 华电集团20GW组件集采招标,带动多晶硅价格上涨 8月22日,华电集团2025-2026年光伏组件集中采购开标。 该项目分为两个标段,其中标段一采购N型TOPCon组件,规模为18GW,转化效率 要求≥22.5%;标段二采购N型TOPCon、BC、HIT组件, ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 08 月 25 日 工业硅：市场情绪提振 多晶硅：区间震荡，以逢低做多为主 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【宏观及行业新闻】 光伏头条获悉，8 月 22 日，华电集团 2025-2026 年光伏组件集中采购开标。该项目分为两个标段，其 中标段一采购 N 型 TOPCon 组件，规模为 18GW，标段二采购 N 型 TOPCon、BC、HJT 组件，规模为 2GW。根 据开标结果，标段一共有 49 家企业参与投标，投标报价 0.646~0.751 元/W，均价 0.71 元/W；标段二共 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,745 620,638 | 110 -38,437 | -60 77,521 | - ...

每经编辑：张文瑜 8月22日，光伏企业上半年成绩单陆续揭榜。但受光伏行业主要产品市场销售价格跌破行业成本线的竞 争环境影响，光伏企业普遍经营亏损、增量不增收。 2025年上半年，隆基绿能公司实现营业收入328.13亿元，较上年同期大幅减亏26.61亿元，主要得益于运 营提效促进销售费用、管理费用大幅下降，以及资产减值损失的大幅减少。 持续刷新效率纪录 至暗时刻，技术创新成为破局的关键。隆基绿能凭借其领先的差异化BC技术，开启新一轮技术驱动。 BC组件差异化突围 2025年上半年，全国光伏新增装机212.21GW，同比增长107%。然而，制造端全面承压，电池、组件产 量增速降至15%以下，多晶硅、硅片甚至出现负增长，产业链价格持续探底，行业整体仍处于全面亏损 的艰难局面。 光伏行业的"内卷"，本质上是结构性产能过剩与同质化竞争的双重挤压。同质化技术的快速普及，虽推 动了效率提升，却也导致技术创新羸弱、产品差异缩小，企业纷纷陷入"扩产－降价－亏损"的恶性循 环。低价中标、虚假功率标注、以次充好等现象频发，严重扰乱了市场秩序，阻碍了行业技术创新与可 持续发展。 凭借BC技术的差异化优势，隆基绿能在全球市场脱颖而出。 ...

Core Viewpoint - JinkoSolar is involved in a legal dispute with First Solar over patent infringement related to the TOPCon technology, specifically patent US913074B2, which First Solar claims JinkoSolar has violated [1]. Group 1: Legal Dispute Details - First Solar filed a lawsuit against JinkoSolar and its affiliates on February 25, alleging infringement of the TOPCon patent [1]. - JinkoSolar has confirmed that it is well-prepared to challenge the validity of the patent, utilizing 27 historical documents and expert testimonies to argue for its invalidation [5]. - The patent in question was acquired by First Solar through the purchase of TetraSun in 2013 and is set to expire in November 2031 [1]. Group 2: Patent Statistics and Industry Context - First Solar holds a total of 624 patents in the U.S., with 367 of them, or 58.81%, having expired, leaving 225 active patents, which account for 36.06% [5]. - The solar industry has seen rapid expansion of TOPCon technology, but there are concerns regarding weak intellectual property protection within the sector [6]. - The current market environment is characterized by a downturn, prompting leading companies to focus on technology upgrades and intellectual property protection [6].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing significant losses despite a crowded conference scene, indicating a complex environment of both challenges and efforts for survival [1][4]. Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is in a deep adjustment period with severe losses reported by many companies, yet there is a sense of optimism for long-term development among industry professionals [3][4]. - The term "anti-involution" has emerged as a key theme, with some companies like Longi and Aiko showing signs of recovery, but many still face substantial pressure [3][5]. Financial Performance - As of July 24, 2025, 72.73% of the 68 A-share listed companies in the photovoltaic equipment sector reported expected losses for the first half of the year [10]. - Longi Green Energy is projected to report a net loss of approximately 2.4 to 2.8 billion yuan, a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [11]. - Aiko is the first major company in the supply chain to report a quarterly profit, with an expected net loss of 170 to 280 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [10]. Challenges and Concerns - Overcapacity and supply-demand imbalance remain the most critical issues facing the photovoltaic industry [4][10]. - Many companies in the supply chain express reluctance to claim profitability due to the prevailing negative sentiment in the industry [7][8]. Future Directions - Industry leaders emphasize the need for capacity clearance and self-discipline to avoid low-price competition, which is detrimental to the industry [13][14]. - There is a consensus on the importance of expanding application markets and enhancing product quality to foster a healthier industry environment [14][15]. - The introduction of a new evaluation mechanism by industry associations or government bodies is suggested to maintain order and promote sustainable growth [14].

Group 1: Industry Overview - In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 14.36 GW, representing a year-on-year decrease of 38% and a month-on-month decrease of 85% [1] - As of the end of June, the total installed power generation capacity in the country was 3.65 billion kW, with solar power capacity at 1.1 billion kW, showing a year-on-year growth of 54.2% [1] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 162 hours compared to the same period last year, totaling 1504 hours [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Canadian Solar has established a silicon company to enhance its vertical integration and cost control in the photovoltaic industry [2] - The new company, Uratqi Haoxi Silicon Industry Co., Ltd., was registered on June 17 with a capital of 1 million yuan and is fully controlled by Canadian Solar [2] - Highview Solar has commenced mass production of its 2 GW BC module project, achieving an efficiency of 24.6% [3] - The BC modules utilize cells from Aiko Solar and feature proprietary packaging technology to enhance efficiency and durability [3] - Highview Solar plans to build an additional 1 GW BC module production line in Yibin, Sichuan, which has completed environmental assessment [3] Group 3: Investment Decisions - Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has decided to suspend further investment in its 10 GW N-type ultra-high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon wafer project due to market conditions [4][5] - The company has already invested approximately 340 million yuan into its subsidiary, Anhui Fuxing New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., which has established a production capacity of about 1.5 GW N-type wafers [5] - The decision to halt additional investment is based on price fluctuations in the silicon wafer industry and a temporary mismatch in overall photovoltaic market capacity [5]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electric new energy industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in production and stable profitability for leading lithium battery companies, driven by high demand and a reduction in price wars within the lithium battery segment [3][4]. - The photovoltaic (PV) sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, particularly for high-margin BC components, while other materials face challenges due to price declines [4]. - Wind power installations are on the rise, with expectations for accelerated performance in the second half of the year as demand remains strong [4]. - Investment recommendations focus on three main lines: strong performance companies, supply-side reform opportunities, and new technologies such as solid-state batteries [4]. Summary by Sections Electric Vehicles - In Q2 2025, production across various lithium battery components saw year-on-year increases: ternary cathodes (+15%), iron-lithium cathodes (+53%), anodes (+23%), separators (+36%), electrolytes (+45%), and lithium batteries (+37%) [4]. - The overall profitability in the lithium battery segment is expected to stabilize and recover due to high operating rates among leading companies [4]. Photovoltaics - The PV sector experienced explosive growth in installations, with cumulative new installations exceeding 197GW from January to May 2025 [4]. - Major material companies are still facing losses, but the extent of losses has narrowed significantly in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 [4]. - Aiko Solar is noted for achieving profitability in Q2 2025, marking a significant milestone in the competitive landscape [4]. Wind Power - Wind power installations reached 46.28GW from January to May 2025, with expectations for continued growth in Q2 and Q3 [4]. - The report anticipates that the main machine segment will see improved profitability as orders for wind turbines increase [4]. Investment Recommendations - Key companies to focus on include: 1. Strong performance: CATL, Keda, Zhuhai Guanyu, Hunan YN, and Sungrow [4]. 2. Supply-side reform: Tongwei, Daqo, Aiko, and Longi Green Energy [4]. 3. New technologies: Xiamen Tungsten, Tianqi Lithium, and others [4].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is still facing challenges, with TCL Zhonghuan, once a global leader in silicon wafers, experiencing significant losses, projecting a loss of 4 to 4.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, which is over a 30% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1: Strategic Imbalance - TCL Zhonghuan's aggressive high operating rate strategy contrasts with the industry's trend of capacity reduction, leading to persistent inventory issues as silicon wafer prices have halved [2] - The company's core silicon wafer business, which has historically contributed over 60% of revenue, is now a liability as profits have turned negative, while its attempts to expand into the component business are hindered by technological delays [2] Group 2: Internal and External Challenges - The company is lagging in product upgrades, particularly in the transition to N-type technology, resulting in a gap in conversion efficiency compared to leading competitors [3] - The acquisition of Singapore-based Maxeon to expand into international markets has not yielded profits and has led to nearly 1 billion yuan in goodwill impairment, highlighting deficiencies in international management and technology integration [3] - Continuous losses are straining cash flow, with short-term debt rising, forcing the company to rely on external financing to cover operational gaps [3] Group 3: Path to Recovery - The losses faced by TCL Zhonghuan are attributed to a combination of industry cycles and strategic misalignment, necessitating a transformation in its operational approach [4] - The industry is showing signs of recovery, with policy-driven capacity reductions and price stabilization, as well as indications of narrowing losses from competitors like Longi and JA Solar [4] - For TCL Zhonghuan to navigate its challenges, it must focus on balancing production and sales, accelerating technological advancements, and divesting inefficient assets to ensure cash flow safety [4]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant performance divergence in the first half of the year, with 15 out of 38 listed companies reporting profits while 23 are in losses, indicating a potential shift in the photovoltaic cycle [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy (隆基绿能) expects a net profit loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a reduction in loss by 2.443 billion to 2.843 billion yuan year-on-year, attributed to increased component sales and reduced operational costs [2][3]. - Aiko Solar (爱旭股份) anticipates a net profit loss of 170 million to 280 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a successful turnaround in the second quarter, achieving a profit of approximately 20 million to 130 million yuan [2][3]. - Several companies, including Shuangliang Energy (双良节能) and Zhongli Group (中利集团), reported reduced losses, with Shuangliang expecting a loss of 650 million to 500 million yuan, down from over 1.2 billion yuan in the previous year [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market for BC components is gaining recognition, with Longi Green Energy reporting a demand exceeding supply for high-quality BC components, projecting a shipment of over 17 GW in 2024 [3]. - Aiko Solar noted a significant increase in overseas sales, particularly in high-value markets in Europe, Australia, and Japan, leading to improved overall gross margins [3]. - The photovoltaic glass market is facing challenges, with prices significantly dropping due to oversupply and increased competition, impacting companies like Flat Glass (福莱特) which expects a profit drop of 81.32% to 84.66% year-on-year [9]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with many companies facing supply-demand imbalances and intense competition, leading to a mixed performance across the sector [10]. - Companies like JunDa (钧达股份) and Saiwu Technology (赛伍技术) reported increased losses due to industry overcapacity and price declines, highlighting the competitive pressures within the market [6][7]. - Despite the challenges, some companies, such as Qingyuan Co. (清源股份) and Hengdian East Magnetic (横店东磁), continue to report profits, indicating a divergence in performance within the industry [8].