Key Takeaways MS Q4 revenue is expected to rise 6.8% year over year to $17.32B, fueled by trading and IB strength.Consensus sees MS Q4 earnings at $2.41, up 8.6% from last year, with estimate revisions trending higher.Equity and fixed-income underwriting fees for MS are projected to jump 23% year over year in Q4 2025.Morgan Stanley (MS) is scheduled to announce fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on Jan. 15 before the opening bell. As always, the company’s performance and the subsequent management co ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America (BAC) is expected to report strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with revenue growth driven by trading and net interest income (NII) despite some challenges from interest rate cuts [1][2]. Financial Performance - BAC's nine-month performance was solid, with impressive trading numbers and growth in NII, leading to a projected revenue of $27.32 billion for Q4, indicating a 7.8% year-over-year growth [2][10]. - The consensus estimate for earnings has been revised 1% lower to 95 cents, reflecting a 15.9% increase from the prior-year quarter, supported by higher NII and a solid capital markets business [3]. Estimate Revision Trend - Current earnings estimates for Q4 2025 are 0.95, down from 0.96 a week ago, while estimates for the next quarter and the current year remain stable [5]. - BAC has a history of earnings surprises, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 8.47% [5][6]. Factors Impacting Q4 Performance - NII is expected to be between $15.6 billion and $15.7 billion for Q4, suggesting an 8% year-over-year growth, despite recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [9]. - Loan demand has been robust, particularly in commercial, industrial, real estate, and consumer loans, which is expected to support BAC's performance [8]. Investment Banking (IB) and Trading Income - IB fees are projected to be "flattish to a little bit down" from last year, with a consensus estimate of $1.62 billion, indicating a 2% decline [13]. - Trading revenues are expected to rise by 23.3% year-over-year, driven by market volatility and increased client activity, with total sales and trading revenues estimated at $5.06 billion [15]. Expenses and Asset Quality - Non-interest expenses are anticipated to be around $17.3 billion for Q4, reflecting a 3.6% year-over-year increase due to expansion and digitization efforts [16]. - The provision for credit losses is estimated at $1.33 billion, with non-performing loans expected to increase by 6.6% year-over-year [17][18]. Stock Performance and Valuation - BAC shares gained 6.6% in Q4, outperforming the S&P 500, but lagging behind JPMorgan and Citigroup [22]. - The stock is trading at a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 2.01X, below the industry average of 3.18X, indicating it is currently undervalued [25]. Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on aggressive branch expansion and technology investments to drive future NII growth, with an expected growth rate of 6-7% for 2026 [29][30]. - Management's commentary on NII guidance and IB outlook during the upcoming earnings call will be crucial for investors [31].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve initiated an easing cycle by cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25%, ending a nine-month pause due to a weakening labor market despite inflation remaining high at 2.9% in August [1][2] - The Fed anticipates two additional rate cuts in 2025, lowering rates to 3.50-3.75% by December, while raising the economic growth outlook for this year to 1.6% from 1.4% [2] - Following the Fed's announcement, bank stocks such as JPMorgan, Bank of America, and others reached new 52-week highs, indicating investor optimism [3] Group 2 - Banks benefited significantly from rising interest rates in 2022 and 2023, with net interest income (NII) increasing due to a favorable lending environment and economic growth [4] - By mid-2023, banks faced pressure on NII and margins due to rising funding and deposit costs, alongside deteriorating asset quality as inflation affected borrowers' debt servicing [5] - The recent rate cut and expected future cuts are likely to improve NII for banks, with a rise in loans and deposit balances anticipated [7] Group 3 - The shift towards easier monetary policy is expected to enhance non-interest income through increased client activity, deal flow, and asset values, benefiting investment banking, trading revenues, and asset management fees [8] - Lower interest rates are projected to improve banks' asset quality by easing debt-service burdens and enhancing borrower solvency [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America (BAC) is expected to report solid second-quarter 2025 results, with revenues projected at $26.59 billion, reflecting a 4.8% year-over-year growth, driven by strong trading performance and an increase in net interest income (NII) [1][2]. Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for BAC's earnings in the upcoming quarter has been revised down by 1.1% to 86 cents, indicating a 3.6% increase from the same quarter last year [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII is $14.86 billion, suggesting a 7.2% year-over-year increase, while trading revenues are expected to grow by 9.1% to $5.11 billion [8][14]. Earnings Surprise History - Bank of America has a strong earnings surprise history, having outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 6.63% [5][7]. Loan Demand and NII - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged is likely to support BAC's NII, with solid demand for commercial, industrial, real estate, and consumer loans observed during the quarter [8][9]. - BAC is expected to see a modest rise in loan demand, similar to its peers JPMorgan and Citigroup [8]. Investment Banking Fees - Despite a challenging environment due to tariffs, global M&A activity improved towards the end of the quarter, likely leading to a marginal rise in advisory fees for BAC [10]. - The IPO market showed a revival, contributing to an increase in underwriting fees, which account for nearly 40% of total investment banking fees [11]. Trading Income - Strong client activity and market volatility are expected to boost BAC's trading revenues, projected to grow in the mid-to-high single-digit range [13][14]. Expenses and Asset Quality - Non-interest expenses are anticipated to rise by 4% year-over-year, driven by expansion efforts and digitization initiatives [15]. - The provision for credit losses is estimated at $1.54 billion, reflecting concerns over potential delinquent loans amid higher interest rates and tariff impacts [16]. Stock Performance and Valuation - BAC shares gained 18.6% in the second quarter, outperforming the S&P 500 Index, while trading at a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.76X, below the industry average of 2.86X [21][24]. - Compared to JPMorgan and Citigroup, BAC's stock appears inexpensive, with JPMorgan at 3.04X and Citigroup at 0.97X [27]. Strategic Positioning - The company is focusing on aggressive branch expansion and technology investments to enhance customer relationships and drive NII growth over time [29]. - While the outlook remains promising, challenges such as high deposit costs and volatile capital markets may impact fee income growth [30].

Core Insights - Bank of America (BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan highlighted anticipated weakness in investment banking (IB) fees for Q2, while trading revenues are expected to show strength [1][9]. Investment Banking Fees - BAC expects IB fees to decline over 20% year-over-year in Q2 due to tariff-related challenges affecting deal-making sentiment [2][9]. - In Q1, BAC reported IB fees of $1.52 billion, a 3% decline, primarily due to a drop in equity underwriting income, although higher advisory and debt underwriting revenues provided some offset [2]. Trading Revenues - BAC projects trading revenues to grow in the mid-to-high single-digit range for Q2, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [3][9]. - Last quarter, BAC's sales and trading revenues reached $5.65 billion, the highest in a decade, with a consensus estimate of $5.11 billion for Q2, indicating a 9% year-over-year growth [3][4]. Non-Interest Income - Sales and trading account for approximately 43% of BAC's fee income, which is expected to help mitigate the pressure from declining IB fees, leading to a projected 2% increase in non-interest income to $11.87 billion [4][9]. Peer Comparisons - JPMorgan (JPM) anticipates mid-to-high single-digit growth in market revenues for Q2, while expecting IB fees to decline in the mid-teens range [5]. - Citigroup (C) expects a mid-single-digit increase in IB fees due to a rebound in deal-making activities, alongside similar growth projections for trading revenues [6]. Stock Performance - BAC shares have increased by 12.8% over the past three months, compared to JPMorgan's 19.1% and Citigroup's 16.6% increases [7]. Valuation and Earnings Estimates - BAC trades at a 12-month trailing price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.69X, which is below the industry average [10]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 12.2% for 2025 and 15.3% for 2026, with slight upward revisions for 2025 estimates and minor downward adjustments for 2026 [12].