The worst part: That headline figure of $37 trillion doesn’t even tell the full story. There’s also the national deficit to consider. The deficit represents how much more the country is spending than what it’s bringing in — and for 2025, the government is forecasting a deficit of $1.97 trillion.Stimulus checks, COVID-19 relief measures, and expanded unemployment benefits added trillions worth of debt onto the books. Unfortunately, that spike in spending coincided with the Federal Reserve’s cycle of rate inc ...

The best way to plan for retirement is to assume that you’re not going to get any help. Unlike in previous generations, where corporate pensions could be relied upon to provide the bulk of retirement income, savings is much more of a “do-it-yourself” scenario these days. And although Social Security remains a bedrock of the American retirement system, there will undoubtedly be changes to the program in the future, as it’s projected to become insolvent in 2034. Fortunately, there are plenty of accounts, to ...

🚨 JUST IN: Ripple teams up with Ondo to tokenize U.S. Treasuries on the XRP Ledger https://t.co/y0OE06gRWp ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that treasuries are now providing meaningful yields, contrasting with the low rates experienced in the 2010s, which has renewed interest in bonds for income investors [1] - PropNotes focuses on identifying high-yield investment opportunities for individual investors, simplifying complex concepts and providing actionable insights to enhance returns [1] - The analysis produced by PropNotes aims to assist investors in making informed market decisions, supported by expert research that is not readily available elsewhere [1] Group 2 - There is a potential for initiating a beneficial long position in TLT through stock purchases or call options within the next 72 hours, indicating a strategic investment approach [2] - The article emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results, and no specific investment recommendations are provided [3] - Seeking Alpha clarifies that its analysts are third-party authors, which may include both professional and individual investors without formal licensing or certification [3]

U.S. stock futures inch lower on Sunday night after touching record highs on Friday, following the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts last week, amid hints of more easing in the coming months. All three major indices are currently in the red, with Nasdaq Futures down 0.06%, or 15.75 points, trading at 24,851.00, while the S&P 500 Futures are down 0.10% and 6.50 points, at 6,716.00, followed by the Dow Jones Futures at 46,582.00, down 0.15% or 69 points.See Also: Gold To Hit $4,000 By 2026, But This Rally Is ‘Less ...

Group 1 - The market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations of a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year [3][6][14] - Treasury volatility is at a three-year low, with the 10-year yield approaching 4%, indicating a stable bond market [1][4] - Credit risk measures have fallen to their lowest levels since February, raising concerns about potential complacency among investors [1][25] Group 2 - Inflation remains a concern, with indications that it may be stickier than previously thought, which could impact the Fed's rate-cutting strategy [2][9][18] - The bond market is perceived to be underpricing inflation risks, suggesting that investors may not be adequately compensated for extending out the yield curve [18][20] - There is a notable disconnect in the high-yield market, with a significant portion of issuance being for refinancing or debt repayment, indicating limited new money entering the market [27][28] Group 3 - The demand for high-grade credit remains robust, with Wells Fargo leading a $4 billion deal, although overall issuance has slowed [22][23] - The credit market is currently pricing in low risk levels, similar to late 1990s, despite increased issuance, suggesting a potential overconfidence among investors [25][26] - The performance of credit portfolios shows a trend of quality upgrades outpacing downgrades, indicating a generally healthy credit environment [23][24]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR's Q2 GAAP net loss related to common stockholders was $78.6 million, or $0.94 per common share [4] - Net interest income was $33.1 million, while distributable earnings available to common stockholders were $64.9 million, or $0.77 per common share [4] - The quarter ending book value was $16.9 per common share, with an estimated book value of $16.81 as of July 21 [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ARMOUR raised approximately $104.6 million of capital by issuing about 6.3 million shares of common stock through an at-the-market offering program during Q2 [4] - Since June 30, an additional $58.8 million was raised by issuing approximately 3.5 million shares [5] - Monthly common stock dividends were paid at $0.24 per share, totaling $0.72 for the quarter [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was near 6.75% through late June and early July, dampening refinancing activity [10] - MBS to SOFR spreads widened by approximately 10 basis points quarter over quarter, remaining historically cheap [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ARMOUR's strategy focuses on growing and deploying capital thoughtfully during spread dislocations while maintaining robust liquidity and dynamically adjusting hedges for disciplined risk management [17] - The company is optimistic about structural demand for MBS improving later in the year due to evolving regulatory clarity and a potential resumption of Fed easing policy [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macro landscape is influenced by U.S. fiscal sustainability, Fed independence, and trade dynamics, which are expected to weigh on the market for some time [8] - The company believes that a resumption of the Fed cutting cycle this year could reignite liquidity flow into agency MBS [9] Other Important Information - ARMOUR's estimated net portfolio duration is closely managed at 0.46 years, with implied leverage at eight turns [12] - The MBS portfolio remains concentrated in production MBS with ROEs in the 18% to 20% range [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Managing spread duration risk during volatility - Management expressed comfort with current leverage levels and noted that spreads remain historically attractive, indicating a potential for modestly increasing leverage [20][21] Question: Allocation to higher coupons and best value in the coupon stack - Management remains favorable towards 5.56 coupons, which are currently modeling the highest ROE, while the allocation to higher coupons has declined due to volatility [25][26] Question: Role of long treasury position within the portfolio - The five-year treasury position is used as part of the hedging strategy and as a proxy for Agency CMBS positions, allowing for tactical adjustments based on spread conditions [28][29] Question: Total expenses after fees waived - Management indicated that the higher expenses were due to increased professional fees and do not expect the same run rate going forward [33] Question: Balancing total return versus carry in the hedge portfolio - Management stated that they are positioned for a bullish steepener and are dynamically adjusting hedges based on macroeconomic views [37][38] Question: Expectations for leverage increase - Management noted that they are comfortable modestly increasing leverage given stable liquidity conditions and attractive spreads, while remaining cautious about making large bets [48][52]

Are U.S. Treasuries losing their safe-haven appeal? On this episode of Market Sense, we discuss the recent selloff happening in long-term Treasurys and the ripple effect it can have on global markets. Plus, we’ll take a closer look at the current fiscal policy and what more government debt could mean for this already volatile market. Topics covered: • Bond market • Treasurys • Tariffs, taxes and government debt • Interest rates 02:25: Market Rally in May 004:47: Does May Rally have legs? 06:38: Bond market ...