RT Token Terminal 📊 (@tokenterminal)Tokenization is a distribution multiplier for assets with existing demand:Stablecoins → USDTokenized funds → U.S. TreasuriesTokenized stocks → S&P 500Tokenized commodities → Gold https://t.co/tXkRRvvQF6 ...

According to rwa xyz data, the tokenized asset market reached $27.65 billion as of April 2026, up 4.07% over the past 30 days, making it one of the few sectors seeing net inflows amid a broader crypto slowdown. U.S. Treasuries account for $12.78 billion, nearly half of the total, followed by commodities at $5.4 billion and private credit at $3.19 billion. Tokenized equities are approaching $1 billion, with transfer volume at $2.94 billion. H/T: @BUNT10 https://t.co/ppaE78TUOg ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has downgraded global equities to "equal weight" from "overweight" and upgraded U.S. Treasuries and cash to "overweight" from "equal weight" due to the ongoing Middle East conflict [1] - The firm highlighted a significant 59% increase in Brent crude oil prices this month, surpassing gains seen during the 1990 Gulf War, with current trading at $115.03 per barrel [2] - A potential 25% reduction in global equity valuations is anticipated if oil prices remain around $150-$180 per barrel, leading to a downgrade of U.S. and Japanese stocks to "equal weight" [3] Group 2 - Despite the downgrades, U.S. stocks are still preferred over other regions due to higher earnings-per-share growth, with a shift in investor sentiment towards U.S. assets as a safe haven amid the conflict [4] - Economist Jeremy Siegel predicts a possible 10% market correction due to rising tensions and surging oil prices, although he does not foresee a major downturn for the S&P 500 [5] - Mohamed El-Erian indicated that the economic impact of the Middle East conflict has reached a critical level, with potential for further escalation if tensions persist [6] - Ed Yardeni warned that increasing chances of U.S. military involvement are creating market uncertainty, with the S&P 500 already down about 8.7% from its peak and a 15% correction being possible [7]

Market Volatility and Trading Conditions - The ongoing war in Iran has caused significant chaos in financial markets, leading to increased reluctance among investors and market makers to take on risk, resulting in more challenging and costly trading conditions [1][2] - Various financial markets, including U.S. Treasuries, gold, and currencies, have been affected, with hedge funds in Europe rapidly unwinding positions, contributing to market dynamics [2][12] - Measures of volatility have surged to levels reminiscent of past market crises, indicating heightened uncertainty across asset classes [3][6] Liquidity and Trading Dynamics - Liquidity in the market has been severely diminished, at times operating at only 10% of usual levels, which has exacerbated price movements and trading difficulties [9] - The bid-ask spread for newly issued two-year U.S. Treasuries has widened by approximately 27% in March compared to February, indicating higher transaction costs and risk premiums charged by dealers [5][11] - Trading volumes in Treasuries have increased, but many trades are driven by necessity rather than choice, as wider spreads make trading less attractive [12][14] Impact of Hedge Funds - Hedge funds now account for over 50% of trading volumes in British and euro zone government bond markets, which can provide liquidity in stable conditions but may also amplify volatility during market stress [13][14] - The simultaneous unwinding of positions by hedge funds has led to increased bid-ask spreads, further complicating trading conditions [14][15] Market Maker Behavior - Market makers are becoming increasingly hesitant to engage in trading as buyers become scarce, leading to a reduction in the frequency and size of trades [11][16] - Pricing for larger orders has widened to account for market risk, while smaller orders may see tighter pricing as market makers attempt to capture reduced client flows [16][17] Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market has experienced significant fluctuations, with market makers at times absent from trading, reflecting a reluctance to transact amid the current volatility [17][18] - The price of gold has dropped sharply after a record rally in 2025, as market participants prioritize avoiding losses over seeking profits [18]

Market Reactions - A social media post by President Trump regarding talks with Iran led to significant market movements, with oil prices dropping over 10% and global stocks rallying [2] - Following Trump's announcement of extending the deadline for potential military action against Iran, Brent crude prices rose nearly 6% to over $108 per barrel, while U.S. equities showed only modest recovery [3] - Asian markets, particularly South Korea's KOPSI, experienced declines, falling nearly 4% due to energy supply disruptions [4] Geopolitical Developments - Reports indicate mixed signals from both the U.S. and Iran, with Iran denying requests for a reprieve and rejecting Trump's proposals, leading to potential escalation in the conflict [5] - The U.S. is reportedly considering sending an additional 10,000 troops to the Gulf region, which could heighten tensions [5] Financial Asset Trends - Treasuries and gold have weakened since the onset of the crisis, attributed to inflation fears and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve, with the Treasury market facing potential risks [6] - The decline in gold prices has surprised many investors, suggesting a need to reassess its status as a safe haven asset [7] Private Credit Market - Concerns are rising in the private credit sector, with firms like Ares Management and Apollo Global Management limiting investor withdrawals due to increased redemption requests [8] Equity Market Outlook - Despite geopolitical turmoil, some major banks are raising their S&P 500 forecasts, anticipating strong earnings growth, indicating a potentially bullish outlook for U.S. equities [9] Energy Market Dynamics - The oil futures curve remains optimistic despite significant supply disruptions, with investors betting on a swift resolution to the conflict [10] - U.S. gasoline prices are approaching $4 per gallon, raising concerns about the impact of the conflict on domestic consumers [11] Consumer Sentiment - A recent poll shows only 29% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy, marking the lowest approval rating for his economic management [12] Impact on Gas Market - The gas market may face greater challenges than the crude market due to inflexible supply chains and limited storage options, particularly affecting Europe [13] Energy Transition Implications - The ongoing conflict may accelerate the energy transition in Asia, particularly in the adoption of electric vehicles, benefiting countries like China [14] Diplomatic Developments - Trump's trip to Beijing has been rescheduled, indicating expectations of a resolution to the conflict within the next six weeks [15]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing heightened tension due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with U.S. President Donald Trump extending a pause on strikes against Iran's energy facilities into April, while conflicting accounts of diplomatic progress emerge from Washington and Tehran [1] - The Pentagon is considering deploying up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East, which has not alleviated investor concerns regarding the conflict's resolution [1] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar is gaining strength as investors seek safe-haven assets, with expectations of a U.S. rate hike by year-end driven by inflationary pressures from sustained high energy prices [2][5] - The Japanese yen is nearing 160 per dollar, currently at 159.61, while the euro has slightly decreased by 0.03% to $1.1525, and sterling has eased 0.05% to $1.3325 [2][5] Interest Rate Expectations - Investors are now pricing in a 46% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike from the Federal Reserve by December, a significant shift from previous expectations of more than 50 basis points of easing prior to the conflict [6] - The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are also anticipated to tighten their monetary policies, contributing to rising bond yields [7] Bond Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury yields have remained steady, with the two-year yield at 3.9776% and the benchmark 10-year yield slightly easing to 4.4097% [8][9] - Analysts suggest that prolonged disruptions to energy supplies could lead to a significant economic downturn, potentially triggering a broader monetary tightening cycle [7][9]

RT Centrifuge (@centrifuge)JTRSY puts U.S. Treasuries on better rails. They become available on multiple chains and usable as collateral on @Aave Horizon.Tokenizing the asset gets it onchain. Adding utility is what expands distribution. ...

Group 1 - The bond market's current sentiment towards U.S. debt is likened to a romantic trope where investors are settling for the status quo due to a lack of better options [1][2] - Publicly held U.S. debt is projected to exceed the all-time record set after World War II, driven by increasing entitlement spending as baby boomers retire [3] - Treasury bonds remain in high demand as a safe-haven asset, supported by the U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [4] Group 2 - Europe is a significant holder of U.S. debt, and any shift away from Treasuries could lead to higher yields and increased borrowing costs [5] - The Next Generation EU borrowing program, launched in 2021, aimed to enhance the euro's status as a reserve asset through joint debt issuance [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is struggling to maintain its status as a store of value and hedge against macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, currently trading 44% below its peak from last October [1] Group 1: Bitcoin's Market Position - Bitcoin has experienced a dramatic increase of nearly 18,000% over the past decade, achieving a market capitalization of approximately $1.4 trillion [2] - The cryptocurrency competes for capital on a global scale, facing competition from significant pools of capital that may divert attention away from Bitcoin [2] Group 2: Competitive Risks - The artificial intelligence (AI) sector is currently attracting substantial investment, with major companies investing heavily in computing capacity, contributing to a market cap of $20 trillion for the "Magnificent Seven" group, which constitutes about one-third of the S&P 500 index [3] - The U.S. housing market, valued at an estimated $55 trillion, serves as a significant capital magnet, with the current 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6%, potentially boosting home values if rates decline [4] - U.S. Treasuries represent another trillion-dollar competitive risk, with a nominal value of $29 trillion, providing a highly liquid market backed by the U.S. government's credit, making them essential reserve assets for central banks globally [5] Group 3: Bitcoin's Volatility - Bitcoin's liquidity and constantly updated market price contribute to its volatility, as many investors still perceive it as a risk-on asset, leading to quicker sell-offs during market turmoil [6]

Core Viewpoint - Market strategist Gareth Soloway warns that the next major U.S. equity downturn could lead to up to two decades of stagnation rather than a sharp crash followed by a quick rebound [1] Economic Trends - Countries that have historically been major buyers of U.S. Treasuries are reducing their exposure, with China’s pullback and broader sovereign diversification indicating a shift towards de-dollarization [2] - A sustained break below a key long-term support trend in the U.S. dollar could signal structural weakness, suggesting that reduced Treasury demand may persist as U.S. debt continues to grow [3] Market Outlook - Soloway likens the potential market outlook to Japan's post-1980s bubble era, predicting prolonged sideways trading with repeated drawdowns, and warns that new all-time highs may not materialize for at least a decade [3][4] - The market could experience down periods of 20%, 30%, or even 40%, but a sudden crash similar to the 1987 event is harder to predict [4] Impact on Sectors - The current environment is expected to be particularly damaging for retirement savers who rely on long-term capital gains, as persistent inflation combined with stagnant stocks could erode purchasing power [5] - Soloway is bearish on the housing market, citing affordability pressures and rising supply as baby boomers sell properties, predicting that real estate prices will remain flat or trend lower over the next two decades [7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to prioritize preserving purchasing power over seeking double-digit returns, with a focus on diversification into assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin [6] - Cash or short-term Treasury bills may provide stability during market drawdowns, while dividend-paying stocks could serve as a partial hedge against inflation [6]