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FY26Q3 HOKA 重回高双增速,上调全年业绩指引
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-01-31 08:07
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - HOKA has returned to high double-digit growth, with international markets continuing to be a growth engine. The performance in FY26Q3 exceeded management's cautious expectations from FY26Q2. The financial report highlights four key strengths: DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) sales, full-price sales capability, appeal to younger consumers, and strong international market performance. Based on the robust performance in FY26Q3, management has raised the FY26 full-year guidance [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Deckers Outdoor reported FY26Q3 revenue of $1.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and net profit of $481 million, up 5.3%. By brand, HOKA generated $629 million in revenue, growing 18.5%, while UGG brought in $1.305 billion, a 4.9% increase. In terms of sales channels, DTC revenue reached $1.093 billion, up 8.1%, and wholesale revenue was $865 million, up 6.0%. Regionally, international market revenue was $757 million, a 15.0% increase, while domestic revenue in the U.S. was $1.2 billion, growing 2.7% [4]. Highlights - The report identifies four major highlights: 1. HOKA achieved healthy growth in the U.S. DTC channel, with a significant increase in new customer acquisition due to an optimized membership system, enhancing average order value and multi-category purchases. 2. The company maintained a high level of full-price sales despite frequent promotions in the macro environment, with average selling prices (ASP) for HOKA and UGG slightly above the previous year. 3. UGG's performance was strong across both wholesale and direct channels, with product strategies targeting younger consumers (e.g., Tasman, Ultra Mini) and the "Weather Hybrid" series boosting brand strength in the men's category. 4. The international market showed strong momentum, with growth rates (+15%) significantly outpacing domestic performance, as both HOKA and UGG maintained robust dynamics overseas [4]. FY26 Guidance Update - Based on the strong performance in FY26Q3, management has updated the FY26 full-year guidance, raising revenue expectations to $5.4 billion - $5.425 billion (previously $5.35 billion). HOKA's revenue growth is now projected in the mid-teens, while UGG's is expected in the mid-single digits. Diluted EPS is adjusted to $6.80 - $6.85 (previously $6.30 - $6.39), with gross margin expected around 57% (up 100 basis points) due to lower-than-expected tariff impacts. Management anticipates a net tariff impact of only $25 million for FY26, benefiting from better-than-expected pricing actions and inventory turnover timing. Looking ahead to FY2027, HOKA and UGG are expected to continue their growth phase through category expansion and international market share acquisition [4].