FY26Q3 HOKA 重回高双增速，上调全 年业绩指引 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 钟启辉(研究助理) | 021-23185686 | zhongqihui@gtht.com | S0880125042254 | 本报告导读： FY26Q3HOKA 增速重回高双位数，国际市场持续为增长引擎。本季度表现优于管 理层在 FY26Q2 的谨慎预期。财报展现 DTC、全价销售能力、年轻消费者、国际市 场等 4 大亮点。基于 FY26Q3 的强劲表现，管理层上调了 FY26 全年指引。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 纺织服装业《25Q4 纺服基金持仓环比基本持平， 12 月服装类零售额同比增长 1.2%》2026.01.25 纺织服装业《美棉价格历史深度复盘——美国、 巴西 25/26 产量预期双降，美棉安全边际显现》 ...

Core Viewpoint - GE Vernova (GEV.US) experienced a pre-market surge of over 10%, reaching $689.07, following the announcement of a dividend doubling, an increase in stock buyback authorization, and an upward revision of earnings expectations [1] Financial Performance - The company raised its quarterly dividend to $0.50 per share and increased its stock buyback authorization from $6 billion to $10 billion, driven by a significant and growing backlog of orders, strong profit margins, and more favorable hiring costs [1] - GE Vernova provided preliminary guidance for 2026, projecting revenues between $41 billion and $42 billion, and free cash flow of $4.5 billion to $5 billion [1] - The company also revised its free cash flow expectations for the current year from $3 billion to $3.5 billion, now estimating it to be between $3.5 billion and $4 billion, while maintaining its revenue forecast for $36 billion to $37 billion, leaning towards the upper end of the range [1] Management Commentary - CEO Scott Strazik stated that the company is in the early stages of creating significant value, indicating a more robust financial outlook in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dollar General Corporation reported better-than-expected third-quarter fiscal 2025 results and raised its full-year guidance, reflecting strong performance and an improved outlook for the remainder of the year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company posted net sales of $10.65 billion, nearly matching the consensus estimate of $10.64 billion [1]. - Earnings per share were $1.28, exceeding the Street's estimate of 95 cents [1]. Guidance Update - Dollar General raised its fiscal 2025 earnings guidance from $5.80-$6.30 to $6.30-$6.50, compared to the consensus of $6.17 [3]. - Sales guidance was increased from $42.36 billion-$42.56 billion to $42.52 billion-$42.60 billion, aligning with the consensus of $42.52 billion [3]. Stock Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, Dollar General shares rose by 6.5%, trading at $133.55 [3]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Telsey Advisory Group maintained a Market Perform rating and raised the price target from $123 to $130 [5]. - BMO Capital also maintained a Market Perform rating, increasing the price target from $115 to $130 [5]. - Morgan Stanley kept an Equal-Weight rating, raising the price target from $125 to $135 [5]. - Truist Securities maintained a Hold rating, increasing the price target from $120 to $129 [5]. - UBS maintained a Buy rating, raising the price target from $135 to $143 [5]. - Evercore ISI Group maintained an In-Line rating, increasing the price target from $105 to $130 [5]. - Piper Sandler maintained a Neutral rating, raising the price target from $117 to $129 [5].

Core Insights - Science Applications International (SAIC) reported non-GAAP earnings of $2.58 per share for Q3 fiscal 2026, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.07 by 24.6%, although this represents a 1.1% decline from $2.61 per share in the same quarter last year [1][10] - The company’s revenues for the third quarter decreased by 5.6% year over year to $1.87 billion, slightly above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.86 billion [2][10] - SAIC's shares rose by 16.3% following the earnings report, despite a year-to-date decline of 8.1%, which is better than the Zacks Computers – IT Services industry's decline of 14.4% [3] Financial Performance - Defence and Intelligence segment revenues, which made up 77.1% of total revenues, were $1.44 billion, down 5% year over year; Civilian revenues, accounting for 22.9%, totaled $427 million, down 7.4% year over year [4] - Net bookings for the quarter were approximately $2.2 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2, with an estimated backlog of $23.8 billion, of which $3.8 billion was funded [5][10] - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses increased by 21.7% to $101 million, with SG&A as a percentage of revenues rising to 5.4% from 4.2% in the previous year [6] - Non-GAAP operating income decreased to $183 million from $195 million year over year, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 9.8%, down 10 basis points [6][7] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $45 million, down from $48 million in the previous quarter; long-term debt increased to $2.48 billion from $1.84 billion [8] - Operating cash flow for the quarter was $129 million, while free cash flow was $135 million; for the first three quarters of fiscal 2026, operating cash flow was $351 million and free cash flow was $241 million [9] Guidance and Future Outlook - SAIC raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to between $7.275 billion and $7.325 billion, up from the previous range of $7.25 billion to $7.325 billion; the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 revenues is $7.27 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 2.7% [11] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to approximately $695 million, with an expected adjusted EBITDA margin of 9.5%; adjusted EPS guidance was increased to a range of $9.80 to $10.00, up from $9.40 to $9.60 [12] - The company estimates free cash flow for fiscal 2026 to exceed $550 million [13]

Core Insights - Macy's exceeded Wall Street expectations in its recent quarterly report, indicating that consumer spending remains strong despite economic concerns [1] - The company raised its earnings guidance for the fiscal year, reflecting confidence in continued consumer demand [2] Financial Performance - Macy's reported third-quarter revenue of $4.7 billion, surpassing the market expectation of $4.56 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share were $0.09, significantly better than the analyst forecast of -$0.13 [1] - Comparable sales increased by 3.2%, exceeding the company's previous guidance [1] Strategic Outlook - The company raised its full-year adjusted earnings guidance to a maximum of $2.20 per share, up from a previous maximum of $2.05 [1] - Sales guidance was also increased to a range of $21.5 billion to $21.6 billion, higher than prior estimates [1][2] Market Position and Challenges - Despite strong performance, Macy's stock fell over 6% in pre-market trading, influenced by positive reports from other retailers [1] - The company faces challenges in regaining market share lost to discount retailers and e-commerce platforms since 2012 [2] - Macy's plans to close approximately 150 underperforming stores by 2026 [2] Consumer Trends - Management expects consumer spending momentum to continue, particularly during Black Friday and Cyber Monday [2] - Analysts noted that Macy's is gaining market share from competitors like Saks Global, especially in women's apparel [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - In FY2025Q3 (July 1, 2025 - September 30, 2025), Amer Sports achieved revenue of $1.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30% (28% at constant exchange rates), exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations of $1.72 billion. The gross margin increased by 1.6 percentage points to 56.8%, primarily driven by channel, regional, and product mix optimization. Adjusted EBITDA rose by 38% to $350 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.1%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 156% to $140 million, with a net profit margin of 8.1%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [2][4][5]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue growth was strong across all segments: 1. By product: Technical Apparel/Outdoor Performance/Ball & Racquet Sports revenues increased by 31%/36%/16% to $680 million/$720 million/$350 million, respectively, with constant exchange rates showing similar growth [5]. 2. By channel: Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) and wholesale revenues grew by 51% and 18% to $720 million and $1.03 billion, respectively, maintaining high growth across channels [5]. 3. By region: Revenues in the Americas/EMEA/Asia-Pacific/Greater China increased by 18%/23%/54%/47% to $570 million/$530 million/$190 million/$460 million, with all regions accelerating growth [5]. Inventory and Guidance - As of FY2025Q3, the company's inventory amounted to $1.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28%, with inventory levels remaining moderately high. The growth in inventory was mainly due to increases in Arcteryx inventory and exchange rate effects, with expectations for inventory growth to normalize by the second half of 2026 [10]. - The company raised its full-year guidance, projecting FY2025 revenue growth of 23% to 24% (previously 20% to 21%). Specific segment forecasts include Technical Apparel at 26% to 27%, Outdoor Performance at 28% to 29%, and Ball & Racquet Sports at 10% to 11%. The expected FY2025 gross margin is approximately 58% (previously 57.5%), with operating profit margins between 12.5% and 12.7% (previously 11.8% to 12.2%). EPS is projected to be between $0.88 and $0.92 (previously $0.77 to $0.82) [10].

Core Insights - Best Buy reported Q3 FY2026 revenue of $9.67 billion, exceeding market expectations of $9.58 billion, with a net profit of $140 million and adjusted EPS of $1.40, surpassing the forecast of $1.30 [1][2] - Same-store sales increased by 2.7%, outperforming the analyst average estimate of 1.62% [1] - The company raised its full-year revenue and profit guidance based on strong holiday season demand, driven by significant discounts on consumer electronics [1] Financial Performance - Domestic revenue reached $8.88 billion, a 2.1% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by a 2.4% rise in same-store sales [1] - International revenue was $794 million, up 6.1% year-over-year, supported by a 6.3% increase in same-store sales, although currency fluctuations negatively impacted results [1] - Online sales in the domestic market amounted to $2.82 billion, a 3.5% year-over-year increase, accounting for 31.8% of total domestic revenue [1] Product Performance - Computers and tablets contributed approximately one-third of total sales, benefiting from consumer upgrades and replacement needs stemming from the pandemic [2] - The gaming segment performed well, particularly due to the launch of Nintendo Switch 2 earlier this year [2] - Sales declines in home theater and appliance categories partially offset overall growth [2] Future Outlook - The company adjusted its FY2026 guidance, expecting same-store sales growth of 0.5% to 1.2%, up from a previous range of -1% to +1% [2] - Full-year revenue guidance was raised to a range of $41.65 billion to $41.95 billion, from the previous $41.1 billion to $41.9 billion [2] - Adjusted EPS expectations were narrowed to $6.25 to $6.35, compared to the prior range of $6.15 to $6.30 [2] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Best Buy's stock initially rose over 3% in pre-market trading but later declined by 1.08%, trading at $74.80 per share [3]

Core Viewpoint - ZIM reported a significant decline in financial performance for Q3 2025, with revenue and net profit dropping sharply compared to the previous year, reflecting challenges in the shipping industry due to geopolitical factors and fluctuating tariff policies [1][3][13]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, ZIM's revenue reached $1.778 billion, a decrease of 35.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - The net profit for the same period was $123 million, down 89.1% compared to Q3 2024 [3][4]. - The average freight rate per container fell to $1,602, a decline of 35.4% year-on-year [3][4]. - The total container volume handled was 926,000 TEU, representing a 4.5% decrease from the previous year [3][4]. - EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $593 million, down 61.3% year-on-year [3][4]. Year-to-Date Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, ZIM's container volume was 2.765 million TEU, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [5][6]. - Revenue for the first nine months was $5.419 billion, down 13.4% compared to the same period in 2024 [5][6]. - Net profit for the first nine months was $443 million, a decrease of 72.2% year-on-year [5][6]. Market Trends and Insights - The most significant decline in container volume was observed in the Asia routes, which dropped by 4.1% to 187,000 TEU [8]. - The Pacific routes saw a slight increase of 1.7%, reaching 421,000 TEU [8]. - ZIM's free cash flow for Q3 2025 was $574 million, down 60.5% year-on-year [3][4]. Future Outlook - ZIM has raised its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting adjusted EBITDA to be between $2 billion and $2.2 billion, and adjusted EBIT to be between $700 million and $900 million [10][13]. - The CEO emphasized the company's resilience in a volatile market and the focus on sustainable and profitable growth strategies [13]. Competitive Position - ZIM ranks 10th among global shipping companies, operating 116 container ships with a total capacity of 704,000 TEU, of which 14 are owned and 102 are chartered [20].

Core Insights - BeiGene (ONC.US) shares rose over 3% to $332.26 following a strong quarterly earnings report [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, BeiGene's revenue surpassed 10 billion yuan, reaching 10.077 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.1% [1] - Product revenue continued to grow rapidly, achieving 9.954 billion yuan, up 40.6% year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, BeiGene's revenue reached 27.595 billion yuan, a 44.2% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The company's product revenue for the same period was 27.314 billion yuan, reflecting a 43.9% year-on-year growth [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.139 billion yuan, driven by significant product revenue growth and improved cost management [1] Guidance and Adjustments - Due to strong Q3 performance, BeiGene raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2025, now expecting revenue between 36.2 billion and 38.1 billion yuan, up from a previous range of 35.8 billion to 38.1 billion yuan [1] - The revenue growth adjustment is primarily attributed to the leading position of Brukinsa (Zebutinib) in the U.S. market and its ongoing expansion in Europe and other key global markets [1] Cost Management - Research and development expenses, along with selling and administrative expenses, are expected to narrow to between 29 billion and 30.9 billion yuan, reflecting prudent investment strategies that enhance revenue and pipeline growth [1]

Core Insights - MongoDB (MDB.US) experienced a pre-market surge of over 9% and opened with a gain of more than 2.5%, trading at $369.3 [1] - The company announced a significant management change, appointing CJ Desai, a former executive from ServiceNow (NOW.US), as the new President and CEO, succeeding Dev Ittycheria [1] - MongoDB raised its guidance for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, expecting revenue and earnings to exceed previous forecasts [1]