Nike FY26Q1 北美、跑步引领修复趋势，大中华仍需耐心 [Table_Industry] 纺织服装业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 曹冬青(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | caodongqing@gtht.com | S0880524080001 | 本报告导读： Nike FY2026Q1 收入利润均超预期，北美、跑步引领修复趋势，大中华仍需耐心， 建议关注相关投资机会。 投资要点： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 跟 踪 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.09 纺织服装业《25Q3 H&M 毛利率、费用率优化超 市场预期》2025.09.28 纺织服装业《8 月中美服装零售额均环比提速， 瑞士腕表出口走弱》2025.09.21 纺织服装业《8 月中越出口环比走弱，多数台企 收入 ...

一般而言，人们把以劳动力密集和制造加工为主、依赖成熟技术和稳定市场体系的产业称为传统产业； 把由新技术或科研成果驱动、具有高创新性的产业称为新兴产业。两者也呈现出不同的经济特征与市场 表现：前者是资本密集型，易受经济周期影响，因竞争激烈而利润微薄；后者则具有轻资产、高附加 值、抗周期强等特点。也因此，传统产业与新兴产业在区域发展导向中难免会受到"厚此薄彼"的待遇。 让传统产业搭上时代发展快车，深圳准备这样干！ 9月29日，深圳召开"推动传统产业向'新'向'智' 加快建设现代化产业体系"新闻发布会。会上提出，深圳 将充分发挥创新资源丰富、产业门类齐全、应用场景广阔等优势，通过深化技术赋能、生态共建、模式 创新，积极探索传统产业优化升级新路径，推出12条政策措施，力争经过3年左右的时间，推动全市传 统产业总规模突破7000亿元，实现发展能级的大幅提升。 以往，外界常看到的是深圳持之以恒地对新兴产业和未来产业的布局与推动，但这次发布会的主角是传 统产业。 深圳此举有何深意？ 深圳商报首席评论员 胡蓉 另一方面，传统产业同样也可以成为新质生产力。传统产业只要能在新技术的加持下脱胎换骨、强筋壮 骨，就是新质生产力。而以 ...

Group 1 - The company Baoxiniang (SZ 002154) held its ninth second board meeting on September 29, 2025, to discuss the proposal for the third extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2025 [1] - For the first half of 2025, Baoxiniang's revenue composition was 97.0% from the textile and apparel industry and 3.0% from other businesses [1] - As of the report date, Baoxiniang's market capitalization was 6.1 billion yuan [1]

福建作为我国东南沿海经济大省，福州、厦门、泉州三座核心城市长期呈"三足鼎立"之势： 福州手握省会资源与都市圈政策红利，厦门凭借特区身份与港口优势占据开放高地，泉州则以民营经济为根基撑起制造业半壁江山。 再从GDP来看，2024年三座城市的经济规模分别为： 福州以14236.76亿元稳居榜首，泉州13094.87亿元紧随其后，厦门8589.01亿元位列第三；人均GDP福州为16.81万元，厦门市为16.12万元，泉 州市为14.74万元。 这一格局不仅打破了很多人"厦门经济领跑"的认知，也让"福建第一城"的讨论有了更多话题。 据福州市工信局披露：2023年福州电子信息、高端装备制造（含汽车、专用设备、电气机械、铁路船舶、仪器仪表五大行业）合计实现规上工业增加值占 全市41.6%；2024年受产品价格回调，占比小幅回落至38%—39%区间，但仍保持两大主导产业合计超40%的基本盘。 反观厦门，截至2024年末，厦门虽在集成电路、5G通信等细分领域有所建树，并发展起生物医药等主导产业，但由于受困于土地成本高企，规上工业企 业数量要远低于福州。 2024年，泉州正通过技改加速产业转型，相关智能化生产线、数字化管理系统 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to implement a project for an annual production of 60 million pairs of mid-to-high-end cotton socks and 30 million pieces of clothing, with a total investment of 180 million yuan (including 25.18 million USD) located in the Thanh Hoa Industrial Park in Vietnam [1] Group 1 - The project will be funded by Jian Sheng Vietnam Textile Printing and Dyeing Co., Ltd [1] - The new project site demonstrates significant labor resource advantages, providing stable and ample labor supply to support rapid production and subsequent scale expansion [1] - This advantage will help quickly release production capacity and alleviate pressure on existing production bases, aligning with the company's strategy to optimize supply chain layout and reduce regional concentration risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has been operating in Vietnam for over a decade, with its cotton socks, seamless products, and auxiliary materials factories performing well in terms of capacity construction, production management, and operational efficiency [1] Investment and Expansion Plans - To meet future customer order demands and enhance production scale, the company plans to invest in a project in the Quang Hoa Industrial Park, Vietnam, which will produce 60 million pairs of mid-to-high-end cotton socks and 30 million pieces of clothing annually [1] - The total investment for the project is 180 million yuan (approximately 25.18 million USD), with fixed asset investment around 150 million yuan (approximately 20.98 million USD) and working capital of 30 million yuan (approximately 4.20 million USD) [1] - The funding for this project will be provided by the company's subsidiary, Jian Sheng Vietnam Textile Printing and Dyeing Co., Ltd. [1] Production Capacity and Market Competitiveness - The existing production capacity in Vietnam is expected to gradually reach saturation with the commencement of the Quang Hoa Phase II project and the project in Nam Dinh Province [1] - The investment aims to leverage the advantages of the Vietnamese factories in international trade, customer import tariffs, and environmentally friendly dyeing processes to enhance the company's competitiveness in the international market [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is considered a high-quality target with low valuation and high dividends, showing potential for growth due to a favorable supply-demand rebalancing and moderate raw material prices [3]. - The company has a strong customer base and is expected to leverage its mature overseas production capacity to secure more orders in the future [3]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2024 is HKD 5,061 million, with a year-on-year growth of 20.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be HKD 608 million, reflecting a significant increase of 75.3% [5]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 4.80 in 2024, indicating a low valuation compared to historical averages [5]. Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in elastic fabric production and has established itself as a leader in the lingerie materials market, providing comprehensive procurement solutions for well-known brands [16]. - The company has successfully transitioned to become a significant supplier of sports fabrics, with major clients including ARC'TERYX, NIKE, and adidas [16][27]. Growth Drivers - The company’s revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.4% from 2011 to 2024, with sports fabric revenue growing at a CAGR of 38.2%, outpacing other categories [44]. - The demand for sports apparel is expected to continue growing, benefiting elastic fabric suppliers as consumer health awareness increases [59]. Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the adjustment of production capacity under new trade dynamics, with a focus on high-quality clients and long-term partnerships [11]. - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of around 50%, with a dividend yield exceeding 9% for four consecutive years [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" for several recommended companies, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [12][31]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry experienced a decline in export growth in August, with China's textile and apparel exports totaling approximately $26.54 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5% [16]. - The report highlights the resilience of the sports segment, recommending companies such as Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, while also suggesting opportunities in the luxury segment with brands like Prada and Samsonite [12][16]. - The report notes a slowdown in revenue growth for several Taiwanese manufacturers in August, with companies like Yu Yuan and Zhi Qiang reporting declines of 8.80% and 5.48% year-on-year, respectively [16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share market for the textile and apparel sector rose by 0.67% in the week of September 8-12, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [6]. - The textile manufacturing sector increased by 1.52%, while the apparel and home textile sector saw a modest rise of 0.21% [6]. Industry Data Tracking - Retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles grew by 1.8% in July 2025, while textile and apparel exports fell by 5.05% in August [16][19]. - The report indicates that the inventory-to-sales ratio for U.S. apparel wholesalers increased slightly, suggesting a potential oversupply issue [16]. Recommended Stocks and Valuation - The report provides a detailed valuation forecast for recommended stocks, with Anta Sports projected to have a net profit of 131.8 billion yuan in 2025, and a PE ratio of 18 [12]. - Other recommended stocks include Li Ning, Xtep International, and Prada, all rated for "Increase" with expected growth in net profits over the next few years [12]. Key Announcements and News - Anta announced plans to open 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia over the next three years, indicating strong growth potential in international markets [24]. - H&M opened its first brand experience center in Shanghai, marking a significant step in its retail strategy in China [25].

Group 1: Inflation Trends - August CPI year-on-year growth is -0.4%, with a month-on-month change of 0.0%[10] - August PPI year-on-year growth is -2.9%, with a month-on-month increase to 0.0%[10] - Core CPI year-on-year improved significantly to 0.9% compared to the same period in 2024[15] Group 2: Impact of Policies - The effects of the anti-involution policy are beginning to show in the August PPI data, with mining industrial prices recovering for three consecutive months[22] - Prices in the black chain have stabilized, with coal mining and washing industry increasing by 2.8% month-on-month[22] - The rise in bulk commodity prices has positively impacted downstream manufacturing industries, with factory prices showing a month-on-month recovery of -0.05%[22] Group 3: Food Price Dynamics - Food prices, particularly pork and eggs, are the main drag on CPI, contributing -0.81% to the index[13] - Pork prices contributed -0.29% to CPI, while other food items contributed -0.51%[13] - The demand for pork is expected to recover in September, potentially lifting prices from their current low[15] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - There are ongoing pressures in the real estate sector, and consumer recovery momentum may not meet expectations[30] - The sustainability of price increases in bulk commodities and their impact on downstream industries will be closely monitored[28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangnan Buyi, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [11]. Core Insights - Jiangnan Buyi achieved a revenue of 5.55 billion RMB in FY2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5%. The net profit for the same period was 0.89 billion RMB, also up by 5% [11]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 10 billion RMB by FY2026, focusing on a "fan economy" strategy to drive growth [3][11]. - The report highlights a strong performance in emerging brands, with a revenue increase of 107% in FY25, while mature and growth brands saw modest increases of 2% and a slight decline of 0.5%, respectively [11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - FY2024: 5.24 billion RMB - FY2025: 5.55 billion RMB - FY2026E: 6.00 billion RMB - FY2027E: 6.45 billion RMB - FY2028E: 6.93 billion RMB - Growth rates: 17.3% (2024), 5.9% (2025), 8.2% (2026), 7.5% (2027), 7.4% (2028) [5]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - FY2024: 0.85 billion RMB - FY2025: 0.89 billion RMB - FY2026E: 0.90 billion RMB - FY2027E: 0.97 billion RMB - FY2028E: 1.05 billion RMB - Growth rates: 36.7% (2024), 5.1% (2025), 0.9% (2026), 8.0% (2027), 8.3% (2028) [5]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - PE ratios for FY2025, FY2026, FY2027 are 8.38, 9.15, and 11.72 respectively, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers [5][12]. Market Data - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks is between 13.50 and 22.12 HKD, with a current market capitalization of 10.08 billion HKD [8]. - The report notes that over 80% of retail sales are contributed by active members, with 560,000 active members recorded [11]. Strategic Focus - Jiangnan Buyi is committed to maintaining stable discounts and enhancing customer loyalty through its fan economy strategy, which is expected to support its ambitious sales targets [3][11]. - The company plans to continue high dividend payouts, with a total dividend of 1.38 HKD per share for FY25, corresponding to a dividend yield of over 6% [11].