Core Insights - Diageo, Constellation Brands, and Ambev present distinct investment opportunities in the global drinks trade, with varying financial performances and strategic focuses [4][16]. Diageo - Diageo reported H1 FY2026 net sales of $10.46 billion, a decrease of 4.0% year-over-year, primarily due to a 7.4% decline in North America and a 13.0% drop in Asia Pacific [7][4]. - The company cut its dividend to address a leverage ratio of 3.4x, which exceeds its target range of 2.5-3.0x [7][4]. - Tequila brands, particularly Don Julio and Casamigos, experienced significant declines, with organic sales dropping 20.9% and 30.9% respectively [7][4]. - New CEO Sir Dave Lewis sees opportunities for enhancing competitiveness and broadening the portfolio, although the stock has fallen 26.48% over the past year [8][4]. Constellation Brands - Constellation's revenue for the quarter was $2.22 billion, down 9.8% year-over-year, but the organic decline was only about 2% after accounting for divestitures [9][4]. - The beer segment maintained a strong operating margin of 38.0%, despite facing aluminum tariff pressures [9][4]. - Growth drivers include Pacifico and Victoria, with depletions increasing over 15% and 13% respectively, while Modelo Especial remains the top-selling beer brand in the U.S. [9][4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its Mexican beer imports while managing tariff challenges [2][4]. Ambev - Ambev achieved a full-year 2025 EBITDA margin of 33.4%, marking a 50 basis point improvement and the third consecutive year of margin expansion [10][4]. - The company reported high-single-digit growth in premium and super-premium beer volumes, alongside a 70% growth in GMV for its BEES B2B platform [10][4]. - Ambev's digital distribution infrastructure is seen as a competitive advantage in the Latin American market [2][4]. - The company is trading at a forward P/E of around 14x with a dividend yield near 11%, indicating strong recent profit growth [16][4]. Comparative Analysis - Diageo's core bet is on the recovery of premium spirits, while Constellation focuses on Mexican beer imports, and Ambev emphasizes Latin American beer and digital distribution [11][4]. - Key risks for Diageo include balance sheet issues and U.S. consumer trends, for Constellation, tariff impacts on imports, and for Ambev, foreign exchange risks and inflation in Argentina [11][4]. - Bright spots for Diageo include growth in Guinness and ready-to-drink (RTD) products, while Constellation benefits from Pacifico and Victoria, and Ambev sees premium beer volume growth and BEES platform success [11][4].

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands has announced the appointment of Nicholas Fink as the new President and CEO, effective April 13, 2026, succeeding Bill Newlands, who will transition to a strategic advisor role [1][2][3]. Leadership Transition - Nicholas Fink has been a member of Constellation's Board of Directors since 2021 and is expected to bring a diversified leadership experience and a deep understanding of the company's business model [2]. - Bill Newlands will step down as President and CEO on April 13, 2026, after serving in this role since 2019, and will retire from the Board on the same date [1][4]. Fink's Background - Fink has a proven track record in the beverage alcohol industry, having served as CEO at Fortune Brands Innovations since January 2020, where he led the company through the COVID-19 pandemic and accelerated its digital transformation [2]. - His previous experience includes senior leadership roles at Suntory Global Spirits, where he was responsible for the Asia Pacific and South America regions [2]. Company Performance Under Newlands - Under Bill Newlands' leadership, Constellation Brands consistently ranked among the top growth leaders in the large consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector, with Modelo Especial becoming the 1 selling beer in U.S. dollar sales [4]. - Newlands oversaw the reshaping of the Wine & Spirits portfolio, focusing on higher-end, higher-margin brands aligned with consumer trends [4]. Future Outlook - Fink expressed enthusiasm about joining Constellation Brands and aims to build on the company's strong track record of industry leadership, focusing on brand development and innovation to meet evolving consumer needs [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands reported its Q3 fiscal 2026 results, showing a decline in sales and earnings year over year, primarily due to weak consumer demand trends, despite surpassing analyst estimates for both metrics [2][3]. Financial Performance - Comparable earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 were $3.06, down 6% year over year, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.65. Reported EPS was $2.88 compared to $3.39 in the same quarter last year [3]. - Net sales fell 10% year over year to $2.22 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.18 billion. Organic net sales decreased by 2% year over year [3]. Segment Performance - The beer segment's sales decreased by 1% year over year to $2.01 billion, with shipment volumes down 2.2%. Depletions fell 3%, with declines in Modelo Especial (4%), Corona Extra (9%), and Modelo Chelada (2%), partially offset by growth in Pacifico (over 15%) and Victoria (over 13%) [4]. - The wine and spirits segment saw a significant decline of 51% year over year in sales, totaling $213.1 million, impacted by a 70.6% drop in shipment volumes due to divestitures and strategic pricing changes [5]. Margins and Income - Comparable loss for the company was $46.9 million, compared to a loss of $9.2 million in the prior-year quarter, attributed to weak operating income across beer, wine, and spirits [6]. - Operating income for the beer segment decreased by 1% year over year to $763.5 million, with an operating margin increase of 10 basis points to 38% due to favorable pricing [7]. - The wine and spirits segment reported an operating income of $33.7 million, down 65% from the previous year, with an operating margin contraction to 15.8% from 22.1% [8]. Financial Position - As of November 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents stood at $152.4 million, long-term debt was $10.3 billion, and total shareholders' equity was $7.7 billion. The company generated an operating cash flow of $2.1 billion and an adjusted free cash flow of $1.5 billion in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 [9]. Future Expectations - Management projects an enterprise organic net sales decrease of 4-6% for fiscal 2026, with beer segment net sales expected to decline by 2-4% and wine and spirits segment net sales anticipated to drop by 17-20% [12]. - The company expects a reported operating income increase of 657-677% for fiscal 2026, while comparable operating income is projected to decline by 9-11% [13]. - Comparable EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 is set at $11.30-$11.60, with fiscal 2026 EPS expected to be $9.72-$10.02 [14]. Market Sentiment - There has been a downward trend in estimates, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 13.46% recently [16]. - Constellation Brands holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return from the stock in the coming months [18].

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands, Inc. appears more attractive now compared to a year ago, with a significant drop in its price-to-earnings ratio from 20 times earnings to 13 times this year's earnings estimate [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Constellation Brands, Inc. operates in the beverage industry, selling beer, wine, and spirits. Its beer portfolio includes well-known brands such as Corona, Modelo, Pacifico, and Victoria [2]. - The company also has a diverse range of wine and spirits labels, including Robert Mondavi Winery, Kim Crawford, The Prisoner Wine Company, and SVEDKA [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The stock has experienced a decline of 2.8%, which has contributed to its current dividend yield, although the dividend was not raised [1]. - Despite a better-than-expected quarterly performance, there is skepticism about whether the worst is over for the company [1].

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results with sales and earnings exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates, despite year-over-year declines due to weak consumer demand trends [1][10] Financial Performance - Comparable earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 were $3.06, a 6% decline year over year, but above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.65. Reported EPS was $2.88 compared to $3.39 in the same quarter last year [1] - Net sales decreased by 10% year over year to $2.22 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.18 billion. Organic net sales fell by 2% year over year [2] - The beer business generated $2.01 billion in sales, down 1% year over year, with a 2.2% decline in shipment volumes, partially offset by favorable pricing. Depletions fell by 3% [4] - The wine and spirits segment saw a significant decline of 51% in sales to $213.1 million, driven by a 70.6% drop in shipment volumes due to divestitures and strategic pricing efforts [5] Margin Analysis - Comparable loss for the company was $46.9 million, compared to a loss of $9.2 million in the prior-year quarter, attributed to weak operating income across beer, wine, and spirits businesses [6] - Operating income for the beer segment decreased by 1% to $763.5 million, with an operating margin increase of 10 basis points to 38% [7] - The wine and spirits segment reported an operating income of $33.7 million, down 65% from the previous year, with an operating margin contraction to 15.8% [8] Financial Position - As of November 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents stood at $152.4 million, long-term debt at $10.3 billion, and total shareholders' equity at $7.7 billion. The company generated an operating cash flow of $2.1 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $1.5 billion in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 [11] - The board announced a quarterly dividend of $1.02 per share, payable on November 13, 2026, with nearly $604 million returned to shareholders through share repurchases [12] Future Outlook - The company forecasts an operating cash flow of $2.5-$2.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $1.3-$1.4 billion for fiscal 2026, with capital expenditures of $1.2 billion primarily for Mexico beer operations [13] - Management projects a 4-6% decrease in enterprise organic net sales for fiscal 2026, with beer segment net sales expected to decline by 2-4% and wine and spirits segment net sales anticipated to drop by 17-20% [14] - Comparable EPS guidance is set at $11.30-$11.60 for fiscal 2026, with a reported EPS expectation of $9.72-$10.02 [16]

Financial Performance - The company updated its FY26 reported EPS outlook to $972-$1002 and affirmed a comparable EPS outlook of $1130-$1160[16] - The company affirmed FY26 targets for operating cash flow of $25 billion to $26 billion and free cash flow of $13 billion to $14 billion[16] - Enterprise Q3 FY26 reported net sales were $2223 billion, a 10% decrease year-over-year, while organic net sales also reached $2223 billion, reflecting a 2% decrease[21, 24] - Enterprise Q3 FY26 reported operating income was $692 million, a 13% decrease year-over-year, but comparable operating income was $739 million, remaining flat[21, 28] Segment Results - The Beer Business experienced a 1% decrease in net sales, reaching $20 billion in Q3 FY26[21] - The Wine and Spirits Business reported a 51% decrease in net sales to $213 million, with organic net sales down 7%[21] - The Wine and Spirits Business operating margin contracted significantly from 221% to 158%[17] Capital Allocation - The company maintained a net leverage ratio at the target of approximately 30X[17, 19] - The company executed $220 million in share repurchases in Q3, bringing the fiscal year-to-date total to $824 million[17, 19] - Capital expenditures in Q3 were $246 million, with a fiscal year-to-date total of $656 million, primarily focused on Beer brewing capacity additions[17, 19] Strategic Initiatives - The company achieved a net benefit through efficiency and cost optimization initiatives of over $40 million in Q3 FY26 and over $145 million fiscal year-to-date[20]

Group 1: Financial Results - Constellation Brands, Inc. reported its third quarter fiscal 2026 financial results on January 7, 2026 [1] - A conference call to discuss the financial results and outlook will be hosted by the CEO and CFO on January 8, 2026 [1] Group 2: Company Overview - Constellation Brands is a leading international producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy [2] - The company's mission is to build brands that people love, focusing on elevating human connections and anticipating market trends [2] Group 3: Product Portfolio - The company offers a high-end, imported beer portfolio including Corona Extra, Modelo Especial, and other brands like Pacifico and Victoria [3] - Its wine brands include The Prisoner Wine Company, Robert Mondavi Winery, Kim Crawford, and others [3] - The craft spirits brands feature Casa Noble Tequila and High West Whiskey [3] Group 4: Sustainability and ESG Strategy - As an agriculture-based company, Constellation Brands emphasizes sustainable and responsible operations [4] - The company's ESG strategy focuses on environmental stewardship, community investment, and promoting responsible beverage alcohol consumption [4]

Group 1: Fund Performance - Artisan Mid Cap Value Fund's Investor Class fund ARTQX returned 0.97%, Advisor Class fund APDQX posted a return of 0.98%, and Institutional Class fund APHQX returned 0.97% in Q3 2025, compared to a 6.18% return for the Russell Midcap Value Index [1] - The equity markets continued to rally in Q3 2025, driven by strong corporate earnings, rising AI capital expenditures, and expectations for economic support from US fiscal policy and lower interest rates [1] Group 2: Constellation Brands, Inc. Overview - Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) produces and distributes beer, wine, and spirits, with a market capitalization of $24.573 billion as of January 2, 2026 [2] - The stock's one-month return was -0.58%, and it lost 36.68% of its value over the last 52 weeks [2] Group 3: Constellation Brands, Inc. Performance Analysis - Constellation Brands was the weakest performer outside of health care, with growth slowing significantly over the past year [3] - The company is USMCA compliant, but faces demand headwinds in its core Hispanic consumer market due to elevated inflation and recent immigration raids affecting social activity [3] - The US beer market is stagnating, with younger demographics shifting away from alcohol, yet Constellation Brands has maintained a loyal customer base and gained market share over the past 20 years, particularly with its Modelo Especial brand [3] - The company is focusing on growing its smaller brands, Pacifico and Victoria, while enhancing product offerings for its established brands [3] - Constellation Brands' valuation is compelling at 12X next year's forecast earnings compared to its five-year average of 18X, indicating potential for recovery as company-specific headwinds dissipate [3]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands, Inc. is expected to report a decline in earnings for the fiscal third quarter of 2026, reflecting ongoing challenges in consumer demand and margin pressures [2][5]. Financial Performance - Analysts anticipate a profit of $2.66 per share for the upcoming quarter, which represents an 18.2% decrease from $3.25 per share in the same quarter last year [2]. - For the full fiscal year, the expected EPS is $11.50, down 16.6% from $13.78 in fiscal 2025, but projected to rise by 8.3% to $12.45 in fiscal 2027 [3]. Stock Performance - STZ stock has underperformed significantly, with a 40.1% decline over the past 52 weeks, contrasting with the S&P 500 Index's 11.1% gains [4]. - The stock also underperformed compared to the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, which saw a 2.2% loss during the same period [4]. Market Sentiment - Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating for STZ, with 10 out of 24 analysts recommending a "Strong Buy" and an average price target of $169.18, indicating a potential upside of 21.1% from current levels [7]. - The company expresses cautious optimism regarding future growth despite the volatility in consumer demand and mixed market results [5].

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands, Inc. will report its financial results for the third quarter ended November 30, 2025, on January 7, 2026, with a conference call scheduled for January 8, 2026, to discuss the results and future outlook [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Reporting - The financial results will be posted on the company's investor relations website after the U.S. markets close on January 7, 2026 [1]. - A live conference call will take place on January 8, 2026, at 10:30 a.m. ET, featuring discussions led by the President and CEO, Bill Newlands, and the Executive Vice President and CFO, Garth Hankinson [1][2]. - Access to the conference call will be available via a dedicated phone line and a listen-only webcast on the investor relations website [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Constellation Brands is a leading international producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits, with operations in the U.S., Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy [3]. - The company aims to build beloved brands and is recognized as one of the fastest-growing large consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies in the U.S. retail sector [3]. - The product portfolio includes high-end imported beers like Corona Extra and Modelo Especial, a variety of wines, and craft spirits such as Casa Noble Tequila and High West Whiskey [4]. Group 3: Sustainability and ESG Strategy - The company emphasizes sustainable and responsible operations as an agriculture-based entity, integrating its Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) strategy into its business model [5]. - Constellation Brands focuses on environmental stewardship, community investment, and promoting responsible alcohol consumption as part of its long-term business strategy [5].