Core Insights - Post Holdings reported revenue of $2.25 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting an 11.8% increase year-over-year and matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with an EPS of $2.09 compared to $1.53 in the previous year [1] - The company achieved an EPS surprise of +8.85%, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.92 [1] Revenue Performance - Net Sales for Weetabix reached $145 million, surpassing the average estimate of $141.04 million, marking a year-over-year increase of +3.6% [4] - Net Sales for Post Consumer Brands were $1.16 billion, below the estimated $1.24 billion, but still showing a +10.6% change compared to the previous year [4] - Foodservice net sales amounted to $718 million, exceeding the average estimate of $637.73 million, with a year-over-year increase of +20.5% [4] - Refrigerated Retail net sales were $228.2 million, slightly below the estimated $232.5 million, reflecting a +0.8% change year-over-year [4] EBITDA Analysis - Adjusted EBITDA for Post Consumer Brands was $208 million, lower than the average estimate of $227.48 million [4] - Weetabix's Adjusted EBITDA was $32.6 million, slightly below the estimate of $33.75 million [4] - Foodservice Adjusted EBITDA reached $161.1 million, significantly above the estimated $127.83 million [4] - Corporate/Other Adjusted EBITDA was reported at -$21.9 million, better than the average estimate of -$23.67 million [4] - Refrigerated Retail Adjusted EBITDA was $45.6 million, exceeding the estimate of $36.63 million [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Post Holdings have returned -1.8%, compared to a -0.3% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Wall Street analysts forecast that Post Holdings (POST) will report quarterly earnings of $1.92 per share in its upcoming release, pointing to a year-over-year increase of 25.5%. It is anticipated that revenues will amount to $2.25 billion, exhibiting an increase of 11.8% compared to the year-ago quarter.The current level reflects a downward revision of 5.1% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraise ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net sales for Q3 were $2 billion, with adjusted EBITDA at $397 million, reflecting a 2% increase in sales driven by avian influenza pricing and volume growth in cold chain businesses, partially offset by lower pet food and cereal volumes [17][19] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the fiscal year was increased to a range of $1.5 billion to $1.52 billion, suggesting Q4 will be approximately flat to Q3 [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Post Consumer Brands (PCB) net sales decreased by 9%, with cereal volumes down 6% and pet volumes down 13% [17][18] - Foodservice net sales increased by 19%, with volumes up 7%, driven by avian influenza pricing and improved customer foot traffic [19] - Refrigerated Retail net sales increased by 9%, with volumes up 1%, benefiting from the timing of Easter [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cereal category volumes were down 4.1% year over year, with the branded portfolio declining by 4.9% [12] - Pet volume consumption decreased by 3.7% year over year, while the category remained flat [12] - Weetabix saw a 2.4% increase in consumption volumes, contrasting with a 1.8% decline in the category [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on cost optimization and targeted investments to drive volume growth despite a challenging macro environment [15] - The acquisition of Eighth Avenue is expected to create synergies within nut butter and granola, with integration planned for FY 2026 [7] - The company remains open to M&A opportunities while balancing share buybacks, having repurchased 8% of the company fiscal year to date [8][43] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the overall state of the portfolio, despite challenges from tariffs and regulatory changes [9] - The foodservice business is expected to normalize by the end of Q4, with a projected adjusted EBITDA run rate of approximately $115 million [14] - Management acknowledged the need for a longer recovery timeline for the Nutrish brand due to larger-than-anticipated volume challenges [12] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing a transition in its pet portfolio, with plans to address consumption trends and optimize costs [11] - A severance charge of $5 million was taken to align the workforce with a smaller cereal footprint [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on fiscal 2026 guidance - Management indicated that they are still in the planning process for fiscal 2026 and acknowledged various factors that could impact performance, including foodservice normalization and contributions from Eighth Avenue [25][28] Question: Cereal category performance - Management noted that private label underperformance in the cereal category is somewhat of a mystery, possibly due to pricing dynamics [29][30] Question: Foodservice pricing recovery - Management clarified that pricing increases in foodservice were driven by recovering costs from Q2 and elevated egg markets [34][35] Question: M&A appetite and market challenges - Management expressed a cautious but open-minded approach to M&A opportunities, noting current market uncertainties and low multiples [41][44] Question: Eighth Avenue acquisition impact - Management confirmed no material changes to the expected contribution from Eighth Avenue for the fiscal year and indicated a path to improvement for next year [68] Question: Portfolio adjustments in Pet - Management highlighted opportunities for portfolio changes but emphasized the need to stabilize the Nutrish brand before making significant adjustments [78] Question: Input costs and product reformulations - Management plans to take a pragmatic approach to product reformulations and innovation in response to regulatory changes [61][63]

Core Viewpoint - Post Holdings (POST) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.67 per share, an increase of 8.4% year-over-year, with revenues projected at $1.95 billion, reflecting a 0.2% increase compared to the previous year [1] Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 7.7% over the past 30 days, indicating analysts have reassessed their initial projections [2] - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are linked to short-term stock price performance [3] Key Metrics Estimates - Analysts predict 'Net Sales- Weetabix' will reach $139.47 million, a 2.5% increase year-over-year [5] - 'Net Sales- Refrigerated Retail' is expected to be $223.95 million, indicating a 4.5% year-over-year increase [5] - 'Net Sales- Post Consumer Brands' is projected at $945.47 million, reflecting a decrease of 6.2% year-over-year [5] - 'Net Sales- Foodservice' is forecasted to be $636.19 million, suggesting an 8% increase year-over-year [6] Adjusted EBITDA Estimates - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Post Consumer Brands' is expected to be $186.22 million, down from $193.50 million year-over-year [6] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Weetabix' is projected at $34.38 million, slightly up from $34.20 million in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Foodservice' is forecasted to reach $137.71 million, compared to $120.40 million in the previous year [7] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Refrigerated Retail' is estimated at $33.34 million, up from $23.30 million year-over-year [7] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Post Holdings have declined by 3.3%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by 0.5% [7] - Post Holdings currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating potential outperformance in the near future [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated net sales for Q2 were $2 billion, a decrease of 2% compared to the previous year, primarily due to lower overall volumes in retail businesses, partially offset by elevated avian influenza-driven pricing in foodservice and volume growth in shakes [13][14] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $347 million, reflecting a decrease in foodservice adjusted EBITDA by approximately $20 million compared to Q1 due to avian influenza costs [8][13] - Year-to-date cash flow was $240 million, with free cash flow of approximately $70 million net of CapEx spend, indicating a decrease sequentially from the previous quarter [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Post Consumer Brands (PCB) net sales decreased by 7%, driven by lower volumes in both cereal and pet segments, with cereal volumes down 6% and pet volumes down 5% [13][14] - Foodservice net sales increased by 10%, with volumes up by 3%, reflecting elevated pricing and higher shake sales, although excluding shakes, volumes were down by 1% [14][15] - Refrigerated retail net sales decreased by 7%, with volumes down by 5%, impacted by the timing of Easter and avian influenza [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cereal category experienced a decline of 3.7%, with the branded portfolio slightly behind at a decline of 4.5%, leading to pressures on manufacturing utilization and cost structure [9][13] - The pet segment faced a decline in volume consumption of 4.5%, while the overall category remained flat, indicating challenges in demand and distribution [9][14] - Weetabix saw a 5% decrease in net sales, with volumes down by 7%, affected by lower promotions and pricing decisions [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on managing costs and optimizing its asset base to maintain profitability in the face of declining volumes in the cereal category [22][30] - The recent acquisition of PPI is expected to provide new capacity and opportunities for innovation, allowing the company to explore private label and value chain strategies [51][62] - The company plans to continue share repurchases and remains well-positioned for opportunistic capital allocation despite the current market uncertainties [12][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer sentiment is weak, and there is a need to focus on demand drivers and supply chain execution [6][8] - The company expects to recover unfavorable costs ahead of pricing impacts seen in Q2 during the remainder of fiscal 2025, assuming no additional avian influenza outbreaks [8][18] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by avian influenza and the need for a couple of quarters of normalcy to better assess long-term run rates for the foodservice unit [21] Other Important Information - The company has closed two plants by the end of the calendar year to address manufacturing utilization issues [9] - The company has repurchased approximately 6% of its shares since the beginning of the fiscal year, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [12][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Long-term run rate expectations for the Foodservice unit - Management indicated that the long-term run rate is likely higher than previously thought, but a couple of quarters of normalcy are needed to make a better assessment [21] Question: Maintaining profitability in PCB despite volume declines - Management aims to manage costs effectively to maintain profitability, with expectations of a gradual improvement in cereal category declines [22][30] Question: Setup for PCB in fiscal 2026 - Management believes that the transition year for Pet will yield benefits next year, potentially offsetting headwinds in the cereal business [29][30] Question: Key drivers of price mix downturn in PCB - Management noted that the pricing recovery in foodservice will offset some of the pressures in the cereal category for the remainder of the fiscal year [33] Question: Options for Eighth Avenue business - Management expressed confidence in the business operations and indicated that a resolution regarding near-term maturities will be forthcoming [35] Question: Insights from the PPI acquisition - Initial learnings suggest some unexpected synergies and challenges in employee integration, but the acquisition is expected to fit well into the company's network [61][62] Question: Trends in grocery category performance - Management observed a dichotomy in consumer behavior, with premium products performing well while others are seeing reduced demand [67]

Core Insights - Post Holdings reported revenue of $1.95 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, a decrease of 2.4% year-over-year, and EPS of $1.41, down from $1.51 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.98 billion, resulting in a surprise of -1.28%, while the EPS exceeded expectations by 19.49% compared to the consensus estimate of $1.18 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Net Sales for Weetabix were $131.70 million, below the estimated $133.10 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 4.6% [4] - Net Sales for Post Consumer Brands were reported at $987.90 million, compared to the average estimate of $1.02 billion, marking a 7.3% decrease year-over-year [4] - Net Sales for Foodservice reached $607.90 million, surpassing the average estimate of $584.58 million, with a year-over-year increase of 9.6% [4] - Net Sales for Refrigerated Retail were $224.60 million, below the average estimate of $237.73 million, indicating a 6.6% decline year-over-year [4] Adjusted EBITDA Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Post Consumer Brands was $203.80 million, slightly below the average estimate of $204.92 million [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Weetabix was $30.30 million, exceeding the estimated $27.17 million [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Foodservice was $96 million, significantly above the average estimate of $75.40 million [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Corporate/Other was -$18.30 million, better than the average estimate of -$23.60 million [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for Refrigerated Retail was $34.70 million, below the average estimate of $39.89 million [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Post Holdings have returned -4.2%, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's increase of +11.3% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 fiscal 2025, consolidated net sales were $2 billion, and adjusted EBITDA was $370 million. Including acquisitions, net sales were flat compared to the prior year, while excluding acquisitions, sales decreased by 2% due to lower overall volumes in retail businesses [17][18] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Nutrish segment increased by 8% year-over-year, driven by strong manufacturing and supply chain cost performance [18] - Foodservice net sales increased by 9%, with volumes up by 3%, reflecting favorable volumes and elevated avian influenza-driven pricing [18] - Refrigerated retail net sales decreased by 5%, with volumes down by 4%, primarily due to declines in side dish, egg, and cheese products [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The cereal category saw a volume decline of 3.2%, slightly more than planned, while the pet category consumption was down approximately 1%, with the portfolio declining by 5% [9][10] - The Weetabix segment experienced a 1% decrease in net sales, with a 12% decline in volumes, although the core Weetabix product saw a 3.6% increase [14][20] - The foodservice segment had strong performance driven by volume growth in egg and potato products, with higher value-added eggs leading the way at a 5% increase [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The overall share in the cereal category remained flat at 22%, while the pet category's overall share decreased slightly [9][10] - The company estimates a cost headwind in Q2 of $30 million to $50 million compared to Q1 results due to avian influenza impacts [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on innovation in the pet segment, particularly with the relaunch of Nutrish and new product launches in Nature's Recipe and Kibbles and Bits [10] - Capital allocation has been focused on share repurchase, with over 4% of shares bought back while maintaining flat net leverage [15][16] - The company remains well-positioned to take advantage of opportunities arising from macro uncertainties, with a robust pipeline of potential M&A transactions [15][30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macro environment remains challenging, with continued pressure on consumers and uncertainty due to new administration policies [15] - The company expressed confidence in navigating the current landscape despite unprecedented market price volatility [12] - Management raised the bottom end of FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $10 million to a range of $1.42 billion to $1.46 billion, reflecting strong Q1 performance [21][49] Other Important Information - The company generated $310 million from operations and approximately $170 million in free cash flow net of CapEx spend during Q1 [21] - The company repurchased 1.6 million shares at an average price of approximately $114 per share, with a total of 2.6 million shares repurchased since the beginning of the fiscal year [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Potential for larger scale M&A deals - Management acknowledged the likelihood of increased M&A activity in the current valuation environment and stated that they are well-positioned to consider opportunities despite recent share repurchases [26][30] Question: Flexibility in optimizing the pet supply chain - Management indicated that while there are opportunities for optimization, the primary focus remains on actions taken to enhance profitability and capacity for higher-margin products [32] Question: Foodservice EBITDA drag and demand outlook - Management believes the recovery in foodservice is self-contained and not reliant on performance in other segments, with a focus on improving margins through labor efficiency [38] Question: Risks associated with avian influenza - Management highlighted that risks for Q2 are primarily due to market price volatility and the timing of pricing adjustments, with a focus on recovering supply [52][63] Question: Egg business and market volatility - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth of the egg business despite recent volatility, emphasizing the importance of pricing models that mitigate risk [75][78] Question: Cereal category performance and innovation - Management acknowledged challenges in the cereal category but is exploring innovation opportunities to enhance growth and adapt to changing consumer preferences [81]