Gold: Like Treasury bonds, gold saw solid buying on Monday as investors continued to add to safe-haven positions. The bullion finished Monday's trading at $5,227, up 2.38%. Worries over the Middle East, plus UBS raising its target price for Gold to $6,200 by the middle of 2026, added to the tailwind that was already pushing the commodity higher. Silver was the big winner Monday, closing up 4.23% at $88.10. Crypto: Cryptocurrency prices fell sharply early on Monday, with Bitcoin dropping 3% to 5% over the co ...

Quick Read We start the trading week off with the stock market still digesting the Supreme Court ruling against President Trump’s tariffs Stocks rebounded on Friday when the ruling was announced, but it remains to be seen this week whether there is follow-through. While the Russell 2000 closed lower on Friday, it continues to lead all indices this year and still offers exceptional upside potential. A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retir ...

Market Overview - US stocks opened lower due to geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, with the Dow Jones down 0.5% at 49,425 points, S&P 500 down 0.3% at 6,863 points, and Nasdaq down 0.2% at 22,704 points [2] - US stock futures also fell as fears of a military strike on Iran pushed oil prices higher, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropping 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [4] Oil and Gold Prices - Brent crude oil prices climbed above $71 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate approached $66, marking the largest daily increase in oil prices since October [5] - Gold prices rose back above $5,000 per ounce amid the rising tensions [5] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14 saw a significant drop of 23,000 to 206,000, which was below the expected 225,000 [3] - Continuing claims increased by 17,000 to 1.87 million, indicating a rise in the number of individuals continuing to receive unemployment benefits [3] Company Performance - Walmart reported modest fourth-quarter earnings beats under its new CEO, but shares fell approximately 3% in premarket trading as investors evaluated the company's holiday sales performance [6]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing fluctuations due to potential geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, which could lead to supply disruptions and affect prices significantly. Group 1: Current Oil Prices and Market Trends - West Texas Intermediate crude oil is currently priced at $66.50, reflecting a 2% increase today, following a period of low prices earlier this year [1] - The lowest price for oil this year was $55, and the market is now approaching last year's average price, which was around $80 [3] - Historical trends indicate that supply disruptions in the Middle East often lead to price peaks, after which Western producers typically sell forward, causing prices to decline [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Supply Concerns - Traders are focused on how high oil prices can rise and when they can adjust their hedges to manage supply surpluses in the Western hemisphere [4] - There are concerns about whether Gulf states can maintain excess capacity if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, which could impact global oil supply [4][5] - The U.S. administration's relationships with Middle Eastern producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, may influence supply levels and pricing strategies [6] Group 3: Impact of Venezuelan Oil and Western Hemisphere Supply - The shift in oil supply dynamics is evident, with net liquid fuel exports from the U.S. and Canada reaching 8 million barrels per day, compared to 11 million barrels per day during the peak prices of $145 [11] - Venezuela's oil production is contributing to the trend of increased supply from the Western Hemisphere, which includes countries like Canada, Brazil, and Guyana [12] - The geopolitical landscape is changing, with Venezuela's oil previously going to Cuba, now facing restrictions, which may further isolate Iran, China, and Russia [12]

Market Overview - Futures are trading higher after a sluggish start to the holiday-shortened trading week, with all major indices ending the day modestly higher [2] - The Nasdaq closed at 22,578, up 0.14%, marking its fifth consecutive week of decline prior to this [2] - The Dow Jones closed at 49,533, up 0.07%, and the S&P 500 closed at 6,843, up 0.10%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 closed down 0.11% at 2,646 [2] Treasury Bonds - Yields on Treasury bonds were slightly higher as sellers took profits after a solid move higher last week [3] - The 30-year bond closed at 4.69%, and the benchmark 10-year note was last seen at 4.06% [3] Oil and Gas - Oil prices decreased after a rise the previous week, with Brent Crude finishing at $67.32, down 1.94%, and West Texas Intermediate at $62.23, down 1.05% [4] - Natural gas prices fell significantly, closing down 6.2% at $3.04 [4] Precious Metals - Gold and Silver experienced declines due to profit-taking and short selling, with Gold recorded at $4,876, down 2.31%, and Silver at $73.36, down 4.16% [5] Earnings and Economic Data - The focus will shift towards economic data as fourth-quarter earnings wrap up with Walmart's report on Thursday [6] - Despite solid earnings for the quarter, ongoing market issues persist, with some analysts suggesting a 10%-15% correction would be beneficial [6]

Group 1 - Iran announced the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz for live-fire drills, impacting global shipping and U.S. defense contractors as regional tensions rise [1] - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial as it handles 20% of the world's oil, leading to increased scrutiny on tanker companies and defense stocks [2] - As of February 18, Brent crude is trading at approximately $67.63 per barrel, up 0.31%, while West Texas Intermediate is at about $62.40 per barrel, higher by 0.22% [2] Group 2 - Despite military tensions, Iranian Foreign Minister expressed optimism for a sustainable solution during a U.N. disarmament conference, indicating a potential diplomatic opening [4] - U.S. Vice President noted that while some progress has been made in indirect nuclear talks, Iran has not acknowledged certain "red lines" set by the previous administration [4]

Core Viewpoint - The energy sector has unexpectedly surged in 2026, defying earlier predictions of a downturn due to a global oil glut and declining prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 2026, the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF has increased by 23% year-to-date, outperforming all other S&P sectors and the S&P 500, which is up less than 2% [4]. - Major U.S. oil companies have shown significant returns, with ExxonMobil at 29.3%, Chevron at 21.9%, and ConocoPhillips at 18.8% year-to-date as of February 11, 2026 [4]. Group 2: Drivers of Performance - The rise in energy stocks is theorized to be driven by aggressive U.S. foreign policy, particularly following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro, which may allow companies like Chevron and ExxonMobil access to Venezuela's vast oil reserves [5][6]. - The U.S. administration's potential special access to Venezuelan oilfields for major oil companies is a significant factor, as these companies have the infrastructure to process Venezuelan oil [7]. - Increased tensions with Iran, including military positioning by the U.S., could lead to higher global oil prices, further benefiting energy stocks [8]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Some investors are shifting from AI-related stocks back to energy stocks, viewing them as a more reliable long-term investment [9].

Core Insights - Crude oil prices are experiencing a decline, marking the second consecutive weekly loss as fears of U.S.-Iran escalation diminish [1] - Brent crude is trading at $67.36 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate is at $62.66 per barrel, both down from earlier highs [1] Market Dynamics - The U.S. is reportedly seeking more time to finalize a nuclear deal with Iran, which has reduced the near-term geopolitical risk premium and pressured oil prices [2] - OPEC's report maintains demand growth projections at 1.38 million barrels daily for this year and 1.34 million barrels daily for 2027, despite a production drop of 439,000 barrels daily last month due to disruptions in Kazakhstan [4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in oil inventories to 8.53 million barrels and production to 498,000 barrels daily, which the market largely ignored [3] Demand and Supply Outlook - The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised down its demand growth predictions to 850,000 barrels daily from a previous estimate of 930,000 barrels daily, contributing to a 3% decline in oil prices [5] - The IEA also forecasts a surplus in the oil market by 2026, with supply expected to rise by 2.4 million barrels per day to 108.6 million barrels per day, evenly split between non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ producers [6] - Last month, global oil supply fell by 1.2 million barrels per day to 106.6 million barrels per day due to severe winter weather affecting North American operations and the decline in Kazakhstan production [6]

Core Insights - Oil prices have increased due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, overshadowing concerns about a potential supply glut in the market [1] - Geopolitical factors, trade, and technology are currently the main influences on oil prices, with geopolitics being the dominant force [1] - The US is considering actions against Iranian crude shipments, which has contributed to the rise in oil prices [1][3] Oil Market Dynamics - West Texas Intermediate crude settled above $64, reflecting a response to military readiness in the Middle East [1] - Iran, as the fourth-largest OPEC producer, has an estimated production of 3.3 million barrels per day, with recent shipments averaging 1.63 million barrels per day [1] - The labor market in the US is robust, supporting demand for transport fuels and petrochemicals, which reduces downside risks to US consumption [4] Price Trends - Crude oil prices have risen nearly 13% this year, following a 20% decline in 2025 due to concerns over supply outpacing demand [5] - Positive developments in US-Iran nuclear talks have created uncertainty, with fears that failure to reach an agreement could lead to US military action and supply disruptions [5]

Market Overview - Futures are trading lower after a strong performance on Monday, with major indices showing continued strength from the previous Friday [2] - The Dow Jones closed at 50,135, the S&P 500 at 6,964 (up 0.47%), and the Nasdaq at 23,238 (up 0.90%) [2] - The Russell 2000 finished at 2,689, up 0.72%, driven by short covering and bargain hunting [2] Treasury Bonds - Treasury yields were modestly lower, with the 30-year bond closing at 4.85% and the 10-year note at 4.20% [3] - Traders are awaiting delayed economic data, including the January non-farm payrolls and consumer price index reports [3] Oil and Gas - Oil prices increased as hedge funds raised their exposure amid geopolitical concerns in Iran [4] - Brent Crude rose 1.56% to $69.11, while West Texas Intermediate increased 1.38% to $64.43 [4] - Natural gas prices fell 8.18% to $3.14, reflecting ongoing volatility [4] Gold and Precious Metals - Gold prices continued to rally, closing up 1.86% at $5,058, recovering above the $5,000 mark [5] - Silver also saw significant gains, closing at $83.25, up 7.15% [5] - Demand for safe-haven assets and central banks' appetite for precious metals are influencing market dynamics [5] Market Sentiment - The recent rally in the stock market may face challenges as delayed economic data is expected to impact sentiment [6] - Investors are advised to remain vigilant as the market may run out of momentum soon [6]