Vanchip (688153.SS): L-PAMiD/ L-PAMiF ramping up in 2H25; Margins recovery in 2Q25 2Q GM came in higher at 28.0% (vs. 21.3% in 1Q25), better than our expectation due to product optimization. With opex also lower than expected, 2Q net income was better than our expectation at Rmb9mn, turning positive from 1Q25's Rmb18mn net loss. We are positive on Vanchip's migration to higher-end 5G PA modules (e.g. LPAMiD, LPAMiF) and product line expansions from cellular PA to WiFi PA, automotive PA and receiver products ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with expectations for gradual recovery driven by new product launches and improved production efficiency [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 1.704 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 25.42%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 147 million yuan, a year-over-year decline of 141.59% [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 948 million yuan, down 13.43% year-over-year but up 25.43% quarter-over-quarter, with a net loss of 101 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 164.35% [1] - The gross margin decreased by 4.06 percentage points to 26.95% due to increased competition and depreciation costs [1] Product Development and Market Outlook - The company is focusing on new product launches such as L-PAMiD and WiFi FEM to stabilize revenue amidst a challenging global smartphone market [2] - The first-generation self-produced RF switches and low-noise amplifiers have achieved stable output, with the second-generation technology platform gradually entering mass production [2] - The company is also developing new wireless connection products, including automotive ultra-wideband (UWB) chips, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [2] Investment Recommendations - The target price is set at 101.00 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating despite a downward adjustment in revenue and gross margin forecasts for 2025-2027 [3] - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.324 billion yuan, 4.999 billion yuan, and 5.868 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 52 million yuan, 486 million yuan, and 991 million yuan [3] - The company is valued at 12.5 times the 2025 price-to-sales ratio, reflecting its position as a leading domestic RF chip manufacturer [3]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 36.47 billion CNY, a decrease of 7.56% compared to the same period last year [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -46.623 million CNY, a decline of 123.57% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 31.01%, impacted by increased depreciation costs and a competitive environment [3] Group 2: Product Development and Innovation - The L-PAMiD product series is the first fully domestically supplied product in the industry, currently undergoing validation with brand clients [4] - The second-generation SOI process is progressing well, expected to enhance product competitiveness and achieve international leading performance [4] - The company is focusing on the development of WiFi7 modules, which have begun large-scale shipments in smartphone terminals [5] Group 3: Strategic Outlook and Market Position - The company is enhancing its core capabilities and focusing on technology as a key competitive barrier [3] - The semiconductor industry is characterized by a "no progress means regression" competition, necessitating continuous R&D investment [4] - The company aims to strengthen its patent portfolio to mitigate risks and support differentiated market demands [5] Group 4: Market Trends and Challenges - The emergence of new communication demands (6G, satellite communications) is driving the need for advanced RF front-end chip capabilities [4] - The domestic market is experiencing intensified competition in low-end RF front-end products, while high-end products are seeing increased demand for differentiation and integration [4] - The company is prepared to address challenges posed by tariffs and geopolitical factors, focusing on supply chain security and controllability [3]