Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) is positioned as a key player in the AI sector, with significant growth potential driven by increasing demand for AI-related chips and robust financial forecasts from analysts [1][2]. Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs raised TSMC's price target to NT$2,330.00 from NT$1,720.00 while maintaining a Conviction Buy rating [1]. - Earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by up to 15%, attributed to a multi-year growth engine in AI [2]. - TSMC is expected to achieve 30% revenue growth in 2026 and 28% in 2027, up from previous estimates of 22% for both years [3]. Capital Expenditure and Capacity - TSMC plans to invest over $150 billion in capital expenditures from 2026 to 2028, including $54 billion in 2027, to meet the rising demand for chips [2]. - The company anticipates tight capacity for its 3nm and 5nm wafers through 2027 due to robust demand [3]. Product Demand and Shipment Forecasts - CoWoS shipment forecasts have been raised to 1,185,000 wafers in 2026 and 2,195,000 wafers in 2027, reflecting stronger AI-related demand [4]. - CoWoS capacity is also expected to increase to 1,275,000 wafers in 2026 and 2,310,000 wafers in 2027 [4]. Profitability Outlook - Gross margins are projected to exceed 60% from 2026 to 2028, supported by steady productivity gains and limited dilution at foreign fabs [3].

Market Performance - US stocks experienced an upward trend in midday trading, with the S&P 500 reaching a record high above 6,900, indicating a positive sentiment heading into the Christmas holiday [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the gains, increasing by 0.5%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.3% and nearly 0.2%, respectively [1] Economic Indicators - The US GDP growth for the third quarter was reported at 4.3%, significantly higher than forecasts, driven by strong consumer spending [3] - Unemployment claims decreased for the second consecutive week, suggesting a nominally improving economy, although consumer confidence remains weak [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The GDP data has led to a reduction in expectations for a January rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with only slightly more than 13% of traders anticipating this outcome [4] - Despite the current outlook, most traders still expect two rate cuts by the end of next year, reflecting ongoing divisions within the Federal Reserve [4] Commodity Market - Precious metals saw significant gains, with gold reaching an all-time high above $4,500 per ounce, while silver also advanced to a record [6] - In contrast, platinum experienced a decline of over 3% [6] - Oil prices stabilized after a recent increase [6] Company-Specific News - Intel managed to limit its losses to around 1% after reports indicated that Nvidia had halted a test involving Intel's fabrication process for advanced chips [6]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) is recognized as a leading AI stock, with Bernstein SocGen Group raising its price target to $330.00 from $290.00 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating, citing TSMC's quality as a compounder driven by CoWoS ramp, AI demand, and pricing power across nodes [1]. Group 1: Revenue Growth Drivers - Increased CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) capacity is projected to be a significant driver for revenue growth towards TSMC's 5-year AI target, with capacity expected to reach 125K wpm by the end of 2026, contributing to a total CoWoS capacity of 1,250K per year in 2026 [2]. - Bernstein anticipates TSMC's revenue to grow by 23% this year and 20% in 2027, supported by improving mature-node demand and price increases on N3/5 nodes, which will bolster smartphone revenue [3]. Group 2: Financial Projections - Bernstein has set a 1-year price target of NT$1,800.00 based on a 20x forward P/E ratio, projecting revenue slightly above consensus, margins slightly below, but EPS 5% above consensus, reinforcing TSMC's position as a quality compounder and a core holding for investors [4].

Core Viewpoint - Marvell Technology is experiencing a challenging year despite a recent stock rebound, primarily due to competition in the ASIC market and uncertainties surrounding key customers like Amazon Web Services [1][4][10]. Financial Performance - Marvell reported record revenue of $2.01 billion for Q2 of fiscal 2026, marking a 58% year-over-year increase, driven by strong AI demand in data centers [6][7]. - Data center revenue surged 69% year-over-year to $1.49 billion, while enterprise networking and carrier infrastructure sales increased by 28% and 71%, respectively [7]. - The company's gross margin expanded by 420 basis points to 50.4%, and net income turned from a loss of $193.3 million last year to a profit of $194.8 million [7]. - Adjusted earnings per share rose 123% year-over-year to $0.67 [7]. Market Position and Competition - Marvell focuses on specialized silicon for complex and energy-intensive computing workloads, aiming to remain competitive in the evolving tech landscape [2][3]. - Despite its growing role as an AI supplier, Marvell faces strong competition from Broadcom in the ASIC market, which may hinder its growth potential [4][10][11]. - Analysts predict that Marvell's ASIC business may lag behind peers through 2027, with concerns about its ability to capitalize on increasing ASIC spending [10][11]. Customer Dynamics - Amazon remains Marvell's largest ASIC customer, but its involvement in upcoming projects appears limited, raising concerns about potential market share loss [12]. - A delay in a significant ASIC program with Microsoft is anticipated, which could impact Marvell's growth trajectory [12]. Analyst Sentiment - Wall Street maintains a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating for Marvell, with a price target of $92.07, suggesting a potential upside of about 3.28% [13]. - More optimistic analysts project a target of $122, indicating a potential 36.79% upside if Marvell successfully executes its AI strategy [13].

Core Insights - China's tech exports to the US have decreased significantly, with a 70% drop compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily due to new tariffs imposed by the US government [1][8] - In contrast, tech exports from other Asian countries such as South Korea, Vietnam, and India to the US have increased by 80% during the same period [2] - Despite the decline in exports to the US, China's tech exports to other regions, including Europe and emerging markets, have continued to grow, reflecting strong global demand [2][3] Trade Dynamics - The tariffs imposed by the US are reshaping global supply chains and contributing to a decoupling of high-tech industries from China [4] - The share of critical tech imports to the US from China is projected to fall from nearly 50% in 2017 to below 20% by 2025 [4] - Countries like Taiwan, Mexico, Japan, India, and Vietnam are gaining market share in the tech export landscape as a result of these shifts [5] Regional Performance - Overall exports from Asia have increased by 7% in dollar terms through August compared to the previous year, with technology products accounting for over 60% of this growth [6] - Taiwan has emerged as a significant player, with over 70% of its exports being tech-related, the highest proportion in Asia [6] - In August, Taiwan's exports surged by 30% from the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by demand for advanced chips and servers essential for AI data centers [7]