Key Takeaways ASML saw China contribute 27% of Q1 2025 revenues, driven by strong DUV lithography system demand. EUV system exports to China remain restricted under U.S. and Dutch trade controls. ASML stated steady customer behavior but warned of rising uncertainty amid global trade tensions.ASML Holding’s (ASML) sales to China accounted for 27% of first-quarter 2025 total revenues, which was way higher than the earlier expectations of low-20% levels. This increase came mainly from strong demand for Deep ...

Core Insights - The demand for data centers is expected to significantly boost semiconductor stocks for years to come, with companies like NVIDIA leading the market with over 80% share in GPUs [1][2]. Group 1: Semiconductor Companies - ASML is a leader in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, essential for producing advanced chips required for AI applications, achieving 52% year-over-year revenue growth in its latest quarter [3][6]. - Applied Materials provides key technologies for chip manufacturing, including processes necessary for high-performance AI chips, and is expected to see revenue growth of 6.5% to $29 billion by 2025 [7][9]. - KLA specializes in yield management, helping manufacturers improve efficiency and reduce defects in chip production, with analysts raising price targets in anticipation of strong earnings [12][13]. Group 2: Market Trends and Projections - The shift towards more power-efficient chips in hyperscale data centers is driving the need for advanced semiconductor technologies [2][4]. - Generative AI workloads necessitate cutting-edge GPUs and specialized accelerators, which rely on precision manufacturing equipment [5]. - Analysts have set a consensus price target of $923.80 for ASML, indicating a potential gain of over 16%, while KLA's stock is currently above its consensus price target, reflecting strong market expectations [6][12].

Group 1 - ASM International NV operates in the semiconductor deposition market, which is valued at over $27 billion, contributing to a total wafer market exceeding $100 billion [1] - The focus of the analysis is on growth companies, particularly in mid-cap segments, with an emphasis on sectors such as biotechnology, computer chips, cloud technology, energy, and commodities [1] - A systematic balance sheet analysis will be conducted, as many growing businesses struggle with funding, while a stress test will evaluate the safety of each business model [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy prioritizes long-term capital appreciation over short-term speculation [1] - The analyst aims to identify companies that can leverage their intellectual property and play significant roles in current geopolitical contexts [1]

Core Insights - Lam Research Corporation is positioned to benefit from increased capital expenditures driven by the generative AI industry, contrasting with the soaring valuations of companies like Nvidia [2] - The global capital expenditure on advanced chip-making equipment is expected to nearly double from 2023 to 2028, with spending anticipated to exceed $100 billion in 2025 [3] - Lam's primary clients include major players like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, and the company is expanding its focus from memory chips to advanced logic chips and packaging technologies [3] Financial Performance - Lam's stock has decreased by approximately 9% over the past 12 months, trading at around 24 times forward earnings, compared to Nvidia's 35 times [4] - Revenue growth for Lam is projected at around 22% for FY25, but is expected to cool to roughly 2% in FY26 due to challenges related to the Chinese market [4] - If demand related to AI continues and export restrictions to China are relaxed, Lam's revenue could increase by approximately 1.8 times over the next three years [5] Market Dynamics - The U.S. and China have established a trade framework that may lead to a relaxation of technology restrictions, potentially benefiting companies like Lam [6] - The chip manufacturing process is becoming more capital-intensive, which favors companies that produce manufacturing equipment like Lam [6] - Advanced packaging methods for AI tasks are expected to boost demand for Lam's high-end machinery [7] Competitive Landscape - Lam faces competition from companies like Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron, but the long-term outlook for the semiconductor market remains strong, with forecasts suggesting it will surpass $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 [8] - The demand for sophisticated manufacturing tools is likely to remain high as chip manufacturers adopt next-generation technologies to enable AI [8]

Group 1: Stock Market Overview - The stock market has nearly recovered all losses caused by fears of a new trade war, with the S&P 500 index finishing June 25 less than a percentage point below its all-time high [1] Group 2: AI-Related Stocks - Despite the overall stock market recovery, several top tech stocks involved in the AI revolution are trading at attractive valuations, with demand for AI-related products not yet translating into profits for major large language model (LLM) providers [2] - Nvidia, Lam Research, and ASML Holding are highlighted as stocks with attractive valuations, suggesting potential for market-beating gains over the long term [3] Group 3: Nvidia - Nvidia's fiscal first-quarter sales surged 69% year over year to $44.1 billion, driven by rising demand for AI computing and a software advantage that keeps competitors at bay [6] - The forward PEG ratio for Nvidia is 0.79, indicating it is undervalued and suggesting it is a good time to buy [7] - The majority of AI application developers still rely on Nvidia's CUDA software, reinforcing its competitive position in the market [5] Group 4: Lam Research - Lam Research is positioned as a leader in advanced etch and deposition equipment, essential for semiconductor manufacturing, particularly for high bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI processing [9][10] - The company reported a 12% year-over-year increase in first-quarter earnings, supported by strong demand from Nvidia [10] - Shares of Lam Research are trading at 24 times earnings estimates, which is considered low for a highly profitable company with potential for double-digit earnings growth [11] Group 5: ASML Holding - ASML Holding, a producer of advanced lithography systems, is over 25% off its previous peak, with shares priced around $815 [12] - ASML's lithography machines are critical for producing advanced chips required for AI applications, and the company has sustainable competitive advantages that have led to a 16% annual increase in earnings per share over the past five years [13] - The stock is trading at about 30 times forward-looking earnings expectations, which, while steep, is justifiable given ASML's growth potential [14]

For the exclusive use of JATIN CHAWLA at TVF CAPITAL ADVISORS PTE LTD on 23-Jun-2025 23 June 2025 Global Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment - US mulls canceling China semicap license waivers for multinationals with China fabs Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 213 559 5917 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com David Dai, CFA +852 2918 5704 david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D. +852 2123 2654 qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw +1 917 344 8454 alrick.shaw@ber ...

For the exclusive use of JATIN CHAWLA at TVF CAPITAL ADVISORS PTE LTD on 22-Jun-2025 22 June 2025 Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment China WFE Import Tracker (May 2025): Imports resilient with YTD YoY -2%, upside risk to our full year projection Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D. +852 2123 2654 qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 213 559 5917 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com David Dai, CFA +852 2918 5704 david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui +852 2123 2694 zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw +1 917 344 ...

Core Insights - Lam Research's memory segment, which includes both DRAM and NVM divisions, is experiencing significant growth, with revenues increasing nearly 24% year over year to $1.31 billion in Q3 FY25 [1][10]. Memory Segment Performance - The NVM division is seeing strong demand due to technology transitions to 256-layer NAND devices, with revenues growing approximately 21% year over year in the third quarter [2]. - The DRAM division's growth is driven by a shift towards high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and increased adoption of DDR5, resulting in a revenue increase of 26.7% year over year in Q3 [3][10]. Innovations and Future Outlook - Lam Research is investing in new technologies, including atomic layer deposition (ALD) innovations and upgrades for DDR5, LPDDR5, and HBM processes, which are gaining traction among customers [4]. - Despite trade restrictions with China, the company maintains consistent revenue growth, with Korea and Taiwan contributing 48% of revenues in Q3, while China accounted for 31% [5]. Competitive Landscape - Lam Research competes directly with Applied Materials and ASML Holdings in critical wafer fabrication stages, with both competitors also experiencing increased demand for their DRAM technologies [6][8]. - ASML's strong product demand is driven by its EUV systems, which are essential for leading-edge nodes, presenting stiff competition for Lam Research as it moves towards EUV lithography [7]. Financial Performance and Valuation - Lam Research's shares have gained 26.8% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Electronics – Semiconductors industry's growth of 6.5% [9]. - The company's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.99, below the industry's average of 26.82, indicating potential undervaluation [11]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings has been revised upward by 7.2% to $4 per share, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 33.78% [12].

Core Insights - Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) has experienced a significant year-to-date stock increase of 25.3%, outperforming the Zacks Electronics – Semiconductors industry, which has only risen 5.1% during the same period [1][7] - The stock's strong performance is attributed to investor confidence in Lam Research's future, supported by solid fundamentals and growth prospects in AI and data center demand [2][4] Financial Performance - In the third quarter of fiscal 2025, Lam Research reported revenues of $4.72 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 24.5%, while non-GAAP EPS rose by 33.5% [9] - The company's non-GAAP operating margin improved to 32.8%, up 210 basis points from the previous year, indicating effective cost control and operational efficiency [8] Market Position and Growth Drivers - Lam Research is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for AI and data center chips, supplying essential manufacturing equipment such as deposition and etching tools [4][5] - The company shipped over $1 billion worth of products for next-generation chip nodes and packaging in 2024, with expectations for this figure to triple in 2025 [5] Valuation and Investment Appeal - Despite the stock's rally, LRCX trades at a forward P/E of 22.7X, significantly lower than the industry average of 30.91X, suggesting a reasonable valuation relative to its growth potential [11][12] - Lam Research's consistent performance and history of beating earnings estimates reinforce its attractiveness as an investment, with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [10][13]

Group 1: Alphabet - Alphabet is considered one of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, trading at around 20 times earnings, which is a discount compared to peers and the overall market [2] - The company has a low dividend yield of 0.5% with a payout ratio of 8.9%, indicating significant room for future dividend growth [3] - Alphabet is focusing on share repurchases and investing in AI growth rather than increasing dividends [3] - The company is innovating in AI, introducing features like "AI Overviews" and "AI Mode" in Google Search, which are expected to monetize similarly to traditional search [4] - Alphabet's Gemini 2.5 LLM has gained traction, quickly rising in developer rankings and leading in various applications [5] - The company has three other significant businesses: YouTube, Google Cloud, and Waymo, with YouTube growing by double digits and Google Cloud achieving a $50 billion annual revenue run-rate with 28% growth last quarter [7] - Waymo is a leader in the autonomous taxi industry, conducting over 250,000 autonomous rides weekly across four cities [8] Group 2: Applied Materials - Applied Materials is a leading semiconductor equipment supplier, currently 33% below its July 2024 highs, but recognized for its high-quality business [9] - The company specializes in etch and deposition equipment essential for AI-related semiconductor production, with a services business contributing 22% of revenue [9][10] - Applied Materials pays a 1.1% dividend with a low payout ratio of 19.5%, allowing for potential future dividend growth, including a recent 15% increase [10][11] Group 3: Target - Target is trading at just 11 times earnings with a substantial 4.6% dividend, but is down 64% from its all-time highs [13] - The company is experiencing revenue declines but remains profitable, with competitive store locations despite not being known for ultra-low prices [14] - Target's focus on discretionary items has been impacted by inflation, but signs of recovery are emerging as inflation appears to be easing [15] - The digital business grew in the mid-single digits last quarter, with a notable 36% growth in same-day delivery [16] - Target has a long history and has successfully navigated crises, suggesting potential for recovery and stability in the future [17]