Core Viewpoint - Moffett Nathanson analysts believe that Apple's stock price will continue to decline in the short term, with a significant downgrade in target price from $184 to $141, indicating a potential drop of over 28% from the current price of $196.98 [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - Moffett slightly raised the short-term earnings per share (EPS) forecast for Apple's fiscal year 2025 from $7.18 to $7.20, attributing this to consumer behavior in response to tariffs, although he cautions that this effect will not last [1] - Other Wall Street analysts expect Apple's EPS for fiscal year 2025 to be $7.26, while Moffett's forecast for fiscal year 2026 is only $7.06, significantly lower than the previous estimate of $7.87 and below the general expectation of $8.00 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite the temporary relief from tariffs on smartphones, Apple still faces significant import duties on products from various manufacturing bases, which were previously unimaginable [2] - Since Moffett downgraded Apple's rating to "sell" in January, the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has decreased from 32 times to approximately 27 times, indicating a potential further decline in P/E due to unchanged market expectations [2] Group 3: Competitive and Regulatory Challenges - Apple is struggling in the trade war, facing a dilemma of either paying high tariffs or incurring substantial costs to restructure its supply chain, which would significantly increase expenses [3] - Moffett highlighted that Apple is lagging behind competitors in the commercialization of artificial intelligence, with its iPhone Intelligence failing to drive a strong upgrade cycle for the iPhone [3] - The ongoing antitrust case against Google's parent company, Alphabet, poses additional risks for Apple, as payments from Google for search engine revenue on iPhone browsers constitute over a quarter of Apple's operating profit, and these payments have been deemed illegal by a judge [3]