Merrill Lynch has noted that small caps historically outperform in the one, three, six, 12, and 24 months following Fed rate cuts, and the firm's head of portfolio strategy Marci McGregor points out that this pattern has held since 1990.Fed rate cuts affect small caps faster. Smaller companies tend to borrow from banks with short-term loans, while large companies have the ability to issue bonds with much longer durations (6+ years). That means when the Fed cuts rates — like its three consecutive cuts in 202 ...

Core Insights - The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) and iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) differ significantly in cost structure and investment focus, with MGK being more cost-effective and concentrated in technology, while IWM offers broader small-cap exposure and higher yield [2][3]. Cost & Size Comparison - MGK has an expense ratio of 0.07%, while IWM's is 0.19%, making MGK the more affordable option [4]. - As of January 22, 2026, MGK's one-year return is 14.4%, compared to IWM's 18.2% [4]. - MGK has a dividend yield of 0.4%, whereas IWM offers a higher yield of 1.0% [4]. - MGK has assets under management (AUM) of $32.5 billion, while IWM has $73.7 billion [4]. Performance & Risk Comparison - Over the past five years, MGK experienced a maximum drawdown of -36.01%, while IWM's was -31.91% [6]. - An investment of $1,000 in MGK would have grown to $1,929 over five years, compared to $1,256 for IWM [6]. Portfolio Composition - IWM holds 1,951 stocks, with sector weights led by healthcare (19%), financial services (16%), and technology (16%), maintaining low single-company risk [7]. - MGK is heavily concentrated in technology, with 70% of its assets in this sector, and top holdings like NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft making up over a third of its assets [8]. - IWM provides long-standing access to the small-cap segment with a fund age of 25.7 years [7]. Investment Implications - The choice between MGK and IWM depends on the desired exposure to the stock market, with MGK focusing on mega-cap tech growth and IWM offering a diversified small-cap approach [11].

Core Insights - Investing in small-cap stocks often involves a trade-off between quality and growth potential, with many small-cap indexes containing unprofitable companies [1] Group 1: Small-Cap ETFs - The WisdomTree US Smallcap Quality Dividend Growth Fund (DGRS) is a notable small-cap ETF that emphasizes dividends and quality, with a total asset value of $353.2 million as of its debut in July 2013 [2] - DGRS has shown extended out-performance over the last six years compared to "junk" small-caps, particularly benefiting from dividend-paying smaller companies with quality traits [3][4] - The Russell 2000 Index, a benchmark for U.S. small-cap equity performance, had approximately 28% of its weight in companies with negative earnings over the prior 12 months as of September 30, 2025 [5] Group 2: Investment Strategy and Market Trends - DGRS's focus on profitability provides a strategy for investors to mitigate volatility, which is not commonly found in basic small-cap funds [4] - DGRS also offers value at a time when many small-caps are experiencing high valuations, making it an attractive option for investors [6] - A shift in investor tolerance for money-losing companies could favor quality ETFs like DGRS, especially if traditional small-cap funds struggle [7] - Historically, companies with steady earnings and dividends have lagged behind speculative firms, indicating a reversal of trends seen post-global financial crisis [8]

Core Insights - The ETF market experienced nearly $1.5 trillion in net inflows in 2025, marking a record year for the industry [1] Small-Cap ETFs - Small-cap ETFs faced net redemptions in 2025, with approximately $7 billion in outflows, significantly underperforming large-cap counterparts [2] - The S&P 600 rose about 6%, lagging the S&P 500 by over 1,000 basis points, although the gap narrowed to 100 basis points in Q4 [2][3] - Major outflows were concentrated in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) [3] Thematic ETFs and AI - Thematic ETFs, particularly those focused on artificial intelligence, saw around $16 billion in inflows, representing over half of all thematic inflows [4] - The iShares AI Innovation and Tech Active ETF (BAI) attracted nearly $8 billion [4] - Other notable thematic plays included the Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF (NUKZ), which increased by 55%, and the ROBO Global Robotics & Automation Index ETF (ROBO), which gained 22% in 2025 [4] High Yield ETFs - High yield ETFs, such as the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and the iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY), returned close to 9% in 2025, outperforming the Aggregate Bond Index [5] - Despite tight credit spreads, 38% of advisors still find high yield corporate bonds attractive [5] Industry Developments - Over 30 firms, including Dimensional Fund Advisors, BlackRock, and JPMorgan Chase & Co., are expected to launch ETF share classes of mutual funds by the end of Q1 [6] - Goldman Sachs is integrating Innovator ETFs following a $2 billion acquisition, which is anticipated to create synergies by combining Innovator's products with Goldman's distribution network [7] New ETF Strategies - Cullen Roche launched three new ETFs in November 2025, targeting five-, 10-, and 20-year time horizons using an asset-liability matching framework to address sequence of returns risk [8]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 is facing a concentration issue, with the top seven stocks representing about one-third of the index, leading to significant exposure to a few mega-cap technology companies [1] - The Invesco S&P 100 Equal Weight ETF (EQWL) offers an alternative by equally weighting the top 100 companies, limiting even large firms like Apple and Microsoft to approximately 1% of the portfolio [1] Performance Comparison - Since its inception in December 2006, EQWL has returned 271% over the past decade, outperforming the market-cap weighted SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) by 37 percentage points [2] - In the past year, EQWL gained 18.84%, compared to SPY's 17.34%, and has increased by 1.07% in early 2026, while SPY rose only 0.85% [2] Market Dynamics - Equal-weight strategies perform well when market leadership expands beyond mega-cap stocks, with early 2026 indicators suggesting a potential rotation, as evidenced by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF gaining 2.67% year-to-date compared to a modest 0.60% gain for the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust [4] - Historical data indicates that equal-weight versions of the S&P 500 have outperformed market-cap weighted versions by an average of 1.05% annually over multi-decade periods [5] Rebalancing Strategy - EQWL employs a quarterly rebalancing strategy that systematically trims positions exceeding 1% and adds to those below 1%, facilitating a buy-low, sell-high mechanism [6] - The current sector allocation of EQWL includes Financials at 17.3%, Information Technology at 16.3%, and Healthcare at 15.2%, contrasting with market-cap weighted indices where Technology often exceeds 30% [7] Alternative Investment Options - The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) is another option that applies the same equal-weight methodology across all 500 companies, providing greater diversification into mid-cap names, although it has underperformed EQWL recently with a 13% gain over the past year [8] Future Outlook - Over the next 12 months, it is essential to monitor market breadth expansion and EQWL's quarterly rebalancing activity to assess the sustainability of its historical performance advantage [9]

Group 1: ETF Industry Overview - The ETF industry experienced record net inflows of $1.49 trillion in 2025, setting a high benchmark for 2026 [1] - Specific market segments are being monitored for potential investment opportunities in 2026 [1] Group 2: Small-Cap ETFs - The S&P 600 Index rose only 6% in 2025, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 by over 1,000 basis points, although small-caps showed improvement in Q4 [2] - Small-cap ETFs faced net redemptions in 2025, with the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) experiencing outflows of $4.6 billion and $2.7 billion respectively [3] - There is interest in whether the late December demand for small-cap ETFs will continue into 2026 [3] Group 3: AI and Thematic ETFs - AI-focused ETFs saw significant inflows, with the iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (BAI) attracting $7.6 billion in 2025, and the Dan Ives Wedbush AI Revolution (IVES) nearing $1 billion in assets shortly after its June launch [4] - The Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF (NUKZ) outperformed AI-themed funds with a 55% increase in 2025, driven by rising demand for nuclear energy as AI infrastructure expands [5] - The ROBO Global Robotics and Automation Index ETF (ROBO) gained 22% in 2025, with expectations for continued interest in robotics [5] Group 4: High Yield ETFs - Fixed income ETFs saw substantial net inflows of $439 billion in 2025, with U.S.-focused high yield ETFs performing strongly, such as the iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY) and iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG), which rose 8.8% and 8.6% respectively [6] - High yield credit spreads ended 2025 at historically tight levels, yet 38% of advisors still view high yield corporate bonds as attractive [7] - The USHY ETF gathered $6.1 billion in 2025, although demand slowed in the latter half of the year, while HYG attracted $1.5 billion of its total $4.8 billion in December alone [7]

Core Insights - Wall Street experienced a mixed start to 2026, with the S&P 500 rising 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.7%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 index outperformed with a 1.1% gain [2] Small-Cap Stocks Outlook - The early strength in small-cap stocks may signal the potential return of the "January Effect," where smaller companies' stock prices typically rise more in January due to year-end tax-loss selling [3] - Several macroeconomic factors are expected to support small-cap stocks in 2026, beyond the January seasonal pattern [5] Catalysts for Small-Cap Rally - **Favorable Macroeconomic Outlook**: Easing interest rates are anticipated to enhance small-cap stock performance, with Goldman Sachs highlighting compelling opportunities driven by expected rate cuts and accelerating earnings [6] - **Attractive Relative Valuations**: U.S. small caps are trading at a 26% discount to large caps, near historic lows, while international small caps are at an 8% discount despite higher forward earnings growth [7] - **Domestic Economic Advantages**: Small-cap companies benefit more from domestic revenue sources, positioning them favorably amid trends like reshoring and infrastructure development [8] - **AI as a Beneficiary**: Small caps may gain disproportionately from AI-driven productivity improvements, leading to larger percentage earnings growth compared to large caps [9] - **Increased Market Activity**: A rise in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and a recovering IPO market in 2026 could create significant returns and validate small-cap valuations [10] Investment Strategy: ETFs vs. Individual Stocks - Investors may prefer small-cap ETFs for exposure due to the diversification they offer across over 2,000 companies, mitigating risks associated with individual stocks [11][12] Recommended Small-Cap ETFs - **Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO)**: Offers exposure to 1,989 U.S. small-cap stocks, with a 12.2% increase over the past year and net assets of $13.7 billion [14][15] - **iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM)**: Provides exposure to 1,959 small public U.S. companies, gaining 12% over the past year with net assets of $74.42 billion [16][17] - **Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB)**: Covers 1,331 small-cap companies, with an 8.8% rise over the past year and net assets of $68.9 billion [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - A new ETF issuer, VegaShares, has filed with the SEC for 16 highly leveraged funds, despite previous warnings from the SEC regarding the violation of leverage limits [2][3]. Group 1: SEC Filings and Regulatory Context - VegaShares is attempting to launch 16 funds that would utilize 3X or 4X leverage on various large ETFs, amidst a backdrop of at least nine other companies having received warning letters from the SEC for similar filings [2]. - The SEC has indicated that leverage beyond 200% is incompatible with Rule 18f-4, raising questions about how these new filings will comply with regulatory standards [3]. Group 2: Market Implications and Strategies - The timing of these filings is seen as perplexing, suggesting that issuers may be engaging in regulatory brinkmanship or betting on the SEC's leniency regarding leverage rules [3][4]. - The investment advisor behind VegaShares, Vega Capital Partners, has not previously launched any ETFs and has not commented on the filings [4]. Group 3: Specific Fund Details - The initial prospectuses filed include five funds seeking 3X exposure to various ETFs such as the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF (VT) and VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) [5]. - Additionally, there are 11 funds seeking 4X exposure to ETFs including QQQ, SPY, and iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) [5].

Comparing the two BlackRock ETFs dominating the small-cap landscape, it is clear that there is a widening gap between momentum and quality. Recently, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF ( IWM ) has been an outperformerI am a dynamic finance professional with a Master’s in Banking & Finance from Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. My investing background mix corporate finance, M&A, and investment analysis, with a focus on real estate, renewable energy, and equity markets. I specialize in financial modelling, valu ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance comparison between two BlackRock ETFs in the small-cap sector, highlighting a growing disparity between momentum and quality strategies in investment [1]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has recently outperformed its peers, indicating a strong momentum in the small-cap market [1].