Group 1: Strategy Research - The current overseas computing power valuation is reasonable, and subsequent performance upgrades are key; domestic computing power awaits performance realization and is catalyzed by the decline in risk-free interest rates; AI application valuations are cost-effective, with a focus on internet and media sectors [2][3][6] Group 2: Dairy Industry Research - The ruling on import beef safeguard measures has been implemented, with a nearly 6% reduction in quotas for major supplying countries in 2026, and an additional 55% tariff on beef imported outside the quota, which is expected to boost domestic beef demand and sustain the upward trend in the beef cattle industry [7][8][9] - The price of raw milk is stabilizing and is expected to rise in 2026 due to the reduction in supply-side expansion and decreased replenishment, along with the release of processing capacity on the demand side [7][9] Group 3: Non-Metallic Building Materials Research - China Jushi has announced a restricted stock incentive plan, which reflects the company's confidence in future operations, covering a wide range of employees including executives and core middle management [3][10][11] Group 4: Fixed Income Research - The January 2026 convertible bond portfolio is biased towards aggressive and elastic sectors, supplemented by a balanced combination of relatively low-priced and undervalued industries [2][14][16] - The convertible bond market is expected to experience a "New Year rally" due to policy expectations and seasonal capital inflows, with a focus on technology innovation and expanding domestic demand as key investment themes [29][30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan initiates coverage on Minglue Technology (02718) with a "Cautious Accumulate" rating, projecting net profits of -0.13/0.37/1.11 million yuan and revenues of 1.5/1.66/1.81 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company is a leading provider of data intelligence application software in China [1] - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 644 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, indicating a recovery from a revenue decline of 5.5% in 2024 [1] - The gross profit margins for 2022-2024 were 53.2%, 50.1%, and 51.6%, with an increase to 55.9% in H1 2025, reflecting a higher proportion of high-margin marketing intelligence business and cost control through product standardization and AI tools [1] Group 2: Business Segmentation - The company's revenue is primarily derived from three segments: marketing intelligence, operational intelligence, and industry solutions [2] - In H1 2025, the marketing intelligence segment, which includes products like the second needle system and AI-driven social media insights, generated 354 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.75%, accounting for 55.01% of total revenue [2] - The operational intelligence segment focuses on conversational intelligence and smart store operation systems, achieving revenue of 269 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.77%, representing 41.71% of total revenue [2] Group 3: R&D and Product Development - The company is increasing R&D investment in multi-modal large models and intelligent agents, launching generative AI products like "Xiao Ming Assistant" for enterprise decision-making and operational scenarios [2] - The company has also developed the AIGC product insightFlow CMS, integrating marketing insights, content production, and optimization [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Guotai Junan initiates coverage on Minglue Technology (02718) with a "Cautious Accumulate" rating, projecting net profits of -0.13/0.37/1.11 billion RMB and revenues of 15/16.6/18.1 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, respectively. The company’s current net profit is significantly affected by non-cash items, leading to distorted short-term PE metrics. A PS valuation of 18 times for 2026 is applied, resulting in a reasonable market value of 33.12 billion RMB and a target price of 222.71 HKD [1]. Group 1 - The company is a leading provider of data intelligence application software in China [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 644 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, indicating a recovery from a 5.5% revenue decline in 2024 [2]. - The gross profit margins from 2022 to 2024 were 53.2%, 50.1%, and 51.6%, with an expected increase to 55.9% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a higher proportion of high-margin marketing intelligence business and cost control through product standardization and AI tools [2]. Group 2 - The company's revenue is primarily derived from three segments: marketing intelligence, operational intelligence, and industry solutions. The marketing intelligence segment, which includes products like the second-generation system and AI-driven social media insights, generated 354 million RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.75%, accounting for 55.01% of total revenue [3]. - The operational intelligence segment focuses on conversational intelligence and smart store operation systems, achieving revenue of 269 million RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.77%, representing 41.71% of total revenue [3]. - The company has been actively reducing low-margin, highly customized projects since 2022, reallocating resources to replicable standardized products and large model intelligence [3]. Group 3 - The company is increasing its investment in multi-modal large models and intelligent agents, launching generative AI products like "Xiao Ming Assistant" for enterprise decision-making and operational scenarios, as well as the AIGC product insightFlow CMS, which integrates marketing insights, content production, and optimization [4].

Core Viewpoint - Minglue Technology is launching a global IPO on October 23, with an expected listing on November 3, aiming to raise between 1.02 billion to 1.17 billion HKD, but faces significant financial instability and declining investor confidence [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company has shown unstable profitability, with net profits fluctuating dramatically from 1.64 billion RMB in 2022 to a projected loss of 20.3 billion RMB in the first half of 2025 [3][4]. - Research and development (R&D) expenditures have decreased significantly, from 59.2% of revenue in 2022 to only 23.4% in 2025, indicating a weakening of core technological capabilities [4][5]. IPO Details - The IPO is priced at 141 HKD per share, with a base issuance of approximately 7.22 million shares, potentially increasing to about 8.3 million shares with the green shoe option, leading to a market capitalization of around 20.4 billion HKD [1]. - The use of proceeds from the IPO includes 35% for enhancing R&D capabilities, 40% for product development, 15% for marketing and sales team expansion, and 10% for working capital [1]. Market Sentiment - Investor confidence has waned, as evidenced by a significant drop in valuation from 30.5 billion USD in 2020 to 5.4 billion USD in 2023, reflecting a decline of over 80% [5][6]. - The cornerstone investor lineup for the IPO includes seven investors, with a total investment of 59 million USD, but the quality of these investors is questioned, as many lack significant market influence [7][8]. Challenges Ahead - The company faces high entry barriers due to its dual-class share structure, which complicates its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect program, requiring a market cap of at least 20 billion HKD and a trading volume threshold [8]. - The extended lock-up period of 270 days for cornerstone investors indicates a lack of confidence in the company's immediate prospects, as it aims to prevent stock price volatility [8][9]. Institutional Demand - The IPO's structure, with nine underwriters, suggests potential insufficient demand from institutional investors, leading to the opening of international placement channels to attract retail investors [9][10]. - The high subscription rate of 1388 times as of October 27 indicates strong retail interest, but historical performance of similar IPOs raises concerns about post-listing stock performance [10].

Core Insights - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is revitalizing the digital transformation of the marketing industry, shifting marketing from empowerment to omnipotence, and initiating a profound transformation [1] - AI marketing has become a focal point in the industry, aiming to break traditional marketing limitations and establish a new marketing mechanism that creates efficient, precise, and personalized business models for brand communication [1] AI Marketing Concept and Features - AI marketing is characterized by its ability to create personalized marketing experiences at a granular level, leveraging advanced technologies to enhance consumer engagement [2] Development Progress of AI Marketing in China - AI marketing is transitioning into a personalized marketing era, with the Marketing 5.0 phase combining features from previous stages and utilizing "human-like technology" to enhance consumer experiences [4] - The current phase of AI marketing is one of popularization, where brands and service providers are creating dedicated marketing models that generate diverse advertising content [5] Development Environment for AI Marketing in China - The digital economy in China is growing rapidly, with a scale of 53.9 trillion yuan in 2023, significantly outpacing historical GDP growth rates [7] - AI is accelerating the digital transformation of marketing, enhancing enterprises' capabilities in digital marketing [7] Enhancements in User Experience through AI - AI technology enhances the entire consumer experience by providing personalized services, seamless integration with user needs, and improving perceived value through quality service [9] Restructuring of the Marketing Environment by AI Technology - The shift from "big data + marketing" to "AI + marketing" is driven by the continuous development of technology, with both general and specialized models being essential for addressing complex marketing challenges [12] Transformation of the Marketing Industry Chain by AI - AI's deep integration into the marketing industry chain is leading to a comprehensive restructuring from supply to demand, enhancing precision, automation, intelligence, and personalization across all marketing processes [14] Market Size of AI Marketing in China - The AI advertising marketing market in China is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the integration of technologies like big data, AI, and cloud computing [16] Innovations in AI Marketing Productivity - AI is expanding the breadth and depth of data insights, significantly improving data processing efficiency and enabling dynamic updates through user and social media insights [25] - Content production is entering a growth market with AI fully integrated into the content operation process, although quality improvements are still needed [28] - AI is enhancing advertising resource allocation and efficiency, allowing for real-time performance monitoring and optimization [31] - AI's integration into customer relationship management systems is improving user interaction and conversion rates [33] Innovative Applications of AI in Marketing - Predictive AI marketing applications are shifting the paradigm from reactive to proactive strategies, enabling businesses to anticipate consumer behavior and optimize marketing efforts [37] - AI short drama marketing is emerging as a new model that combines innovation and interactivity, providing brands with greater marketing opportunities [39] - The integration of AI with XR and digital human technologies is creating immersive consumer experiences, enhancing traditional experiential marketing [41] Benchmark Cases in AI Marketing - Minglue Technology's insightFlow CMS is an AI-driven content marketing tool that enhances content creation and operational efficiency [43] - Baidu's "Baidu Star Chart" is an AI-driven decision-making platform that integrates data analysis and marketing strategy formulation [49] - Leo Digital is focusing on optimizing advertising efficiency through AI technology, significantly improving operational effectiveness in advertising campaigns [51] Trends and Outlook for AI Marketing - AI marketing is evolving from a tool-based application to a strategic core, becoming a key driver of value creation for enterprises [55] - Multi-modal large models are emerging as a significant direction for continuous breakthroughs in marketing technology, enhancing customer analysis and personalized interactions [57]

Core Insights - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology is revitalizing the digital transformation of the marketing industry, shifting marketing from empowerment to omnipotence, and initiating a profound transformation [1] - AI marketing has become a focal point in the industry, aiming to break traditional marketing limitations and establish a new marketing mechanism that creates efficient, precise, and personalized business models for brand communication [1] Group 1: AI Marketing Concept and Features - AI marketing is entering a personalized marketing era characterized by human-centric approaches, integrating advanced marketing frameworks with "human-like technology" to enhance consumer experiences [4] - The concept of AI marketing is evolving from an exploratory phase to a popular phase, with brands and service providers creating dedicated marketing models that generate diverse advertising content [5] Group 2: Development Environment of AI Marketing in China - China's digital economy is growing rapidly, with a scale of 53.9 trillion yuan in 2023, significantly outpacing historical GDP growth rates [7] - The digital economy's growth is driven by the deep integration of technology and the real economy, with AI accelerating the digital transformation of marketing [7] Group 3: Enhancing User Experience through AI - AI technology enhances the entire consumer experience by providing personalized services, seamless integration with user needs, and improving service quality while reducing decision-making costs [9] Group 4: Restructuring the Marketing Environment through AI Technology - The transition from "big data + marketing" to "AI + marketing" is reshaping the marketing landscape, with foundational and specialized models effectively addressing complex marketing challenges [12] - AI's deep application in the marketing industry is driving a comprehensive restructuring of the marketing supply chain, enhancing precision, automation, intelligence, and user experience [14] Group 5: Market Size and Growth of AI Marketing in China - The AI advertising marketing market in China is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the integration of technologies like big data, AI, and cloud computing [16] Group 6: Innovations in AI Marketing Productivity - AI is significantly improving data insights, enabling deeper understanding and processing of vast amounts of data, thus enhancing marketing effectiveness [25] - Content production is entering a growth market with AI fully integrated into the content operation process, although quality improvements are still needed [28] - AI is optimizing advertising resource allocation and enhancing marketing transaction efficiency through intelligent ad placements [31] - AI's integration into customer relationship management systems is improving user interaction efficiency and conversion rates [33] Group 7: Innovative Applications of AI in Marketing - Predictive AI marketing applications are shifting the paradigm from passive response to proactive prediction, helping businesses anticipate consumer needs and market trends [37] - AI short drama marketing is emerging as a new strategic direction for brand marketing, leveraging innovative content and strong interactivity [39] - The integration of AI marketing with XR and digital human technologies is creating immersive consumer experiences and enhancing traditional experiential marketing [41] Group 8: Benchmark Cases in AI Marketing - Minglue Technology's insightFlow CMS is an AI-driven content marketing tool that enhances marketing productivity by providing insights and facilitating content creation [43][44] - Baidu's "Baidu Star Chart" is an AI-driven decision-making platform that helps businesses analyze data trends and develop marketing strategies [49] - Leo Digital is focusing on optimizing advertising placements through AI, significantly improving efficiency and effectiveness in marketing campaigns [52] Group 9: Future Trends and Outlook in AI Marketing - AI marketing is evolving from a tool-based application to a strategic core, becoming a key driver of value creation for enterprises [55] - Multi-modal large models are emerging as a significant direction for continuous breakthroughs in marketing technology, enhancing customer analysis and personalized interactions [57]