Core Insights - Michael Burry, known for his contrarian investment strategies, has recently closed his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, allowing him to share investment advice freely [2] - Burry identifies opportunities in the current market, particularly in companies that have been oversold due to year-end practices like window dressing and tax-loss harvesting [3] - Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is highlighted as a potential investment despite its stock being down over 50% this year, with Burry suggesting it is at least a hold for the next three to five years [3] Company Overview - Lululemon Athletica is a Vancouver-based company specializing in athletic apparel primarily for women and girls, offering a range of products including fitness pants, shorts, tops, and jackets [4] - The company has a current market capitalization of $21.6 billion [4] Stock Performance - Lululemon's stock has decreased by 52% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which is up 17%, and the consumer discretionary sector, which is up 5% [5] - The stock is trading at a trailing price-earnings ratio of 12.4x, significantly lower than its five-year mean of 46.8x, indicating that it is exceptionally cheap at present [6]

Company Overview - Lululemon Athletica Inc. is a yoga-inspired athletic apparel company founded in 1998 and based in Vancouver, Canada, offering a variety of athletic apparel and accessories for women, men, and children [1] - The company primarily sells its products through brick-and-mortar retail stores in North America while expanding through e-commerce and international retail locations [1] Q3 Earnings Preview - Lululemon is set to report its EPS on December 11, with Wall Street expecting low sales growth of 3.72% and negative year-over-year EPS growth [2] - Zacks Consensus Estimates for sales are $2.49 billion for the current quarter and $10.98 billion for the current year, reflecting a year-over-year growth estimate of 3.68% [3] Sales and EPS Estimates - Current quarter sales estimates range from $2.44 billion to $2.56 billion, with year-over-year sales growth estimated at 3.72% [3] - EPS estimates for the current quarter are between $2.16 and $2.26, with a year-over-year decline of 22.65% expected [4] Challenges Facing Lululemon - Lululemon shares have declined by approximately 50% year-to-date, underperforming the market and peers [5] - The company faces significant challenges including tariff impacts, with an estimated $240 million hit in fiscal 2025 and $320 million in fiscal 2026 [6] - Increased competition from new brands and established lifestyle brands is affecting Lululemon's market position [6] - The North American business is contracting due to consumer hesitance amid rising interest rates and inflation fears [7] Market Reaction and Expectations - The options market is pricing in a potential move of +/- 13% following the Q3 EPS announcement [4] - The upcoming EPS report is critical as the company navigates margin pressures, competition, and slowing demand, with the market questioning if the negative news is already priced in [7]

Company Overview - Lululemon Athletica Inc. is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, and specializes in designing, distributing, and retailing athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for both women and men under the lululemon brand, with a market cap of $20.2 billion [1] Stock Performance - Lululemon's shares have significantly underperformed the broader market, declining 48.3% over the past year, while the S&P 500 Index has increased by nearly 13.2% [2] - In 2025, Lululemon stock is down 55.4%, contrasting with the S&P 500's 14.5% rise on a year-to-date basis [2] Competitive Analysis - Compared to the VanEck Retail ETF, which has gained about 10.7% over the past year, Lululemon's underperformance is evident, with the ETF's 11.5% returns on a year-to-date basis further highlighting Lululemon's losses [3] Challenges Faced - The company's underperformance is attributed to slowing growth in North America, compressed profit margins due to higher tariff rates, and increased competition in the athleisure market [4] - Lululemon's product pipeline has not resonated well with customers, leading to decreased enthusiasm and spending, which, along with rising costs, has forced the company to lower its revenue and earnings outlook [4] Financial Results - On September 4, Lululemon reported Q2 results, with an EPS of $3.10, exceeding Wall Street expectations of $2.84, and revenue of $2.5 billion, meeting forecasts [5] - For the current fiscal year ending in December, analysts expect Lululemon's EPS to decline by 11.8% to $12.91 on a diluted basis [6] Analyst Consensus - Among the 30 analysts covering Lululemon stock, the consensus rating is a "Hold," consisting of three "Strong Buy" ratings, 24 "Holds," two "Moderate Sells," and one "Strong Sell" [6] - The current analyst configuration is less bullish than a month ago, with four analysts suggesting a "Strong Buy" and three advising a "Strong Sell" [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's second quarter revenue growth was 14%, exceeding the high single-digit outlook, with total adjusted gross margin expanding 70 basis points to 67.7% [21][22] - Adjusted operating margin increased 210 basis points to 13.5%, with adjusted operating income rising 34% [22][23] - The company ended the period with $1.6 billion in cash and short-term investments and $1.2 billion in total debt [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core product sales grew mid-teens, driven by strong performance in cotton cable knit and seasonal Oxford shirts [12] - Women's apparel and high-potential categories like handbags saw strong double-digit growth, outpacing total company growth [12][14] - Digital ecosystem sales grew double digits, reflecting balanced growth across regions [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Asia and Europe led performance with sales increasing 16% and 15% respectively, while North America sales grew 13% [21] - China sales increased more than 30%, driven by strong consumer response to brand-building activities [16][25] - North America retail comps were up 13%, with digital comps growing 15% [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company introduced the Next Great Chapter Drive Plan, aiming to capture a larger share of the $400 billion premium and luxury market [4][5] - The strategy focuses on elevating the lifestyle brand, driving core products, and expanding in key cities [5][15] - The company plans to continue investing in brand activations and technology to enhance consumer engagement [17][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains cautious about the second half of the year due to potential consumer headwinds and general volatility [7] - Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the company is confident in capturing market share opportunities [7][29] - The full-year revenue growth outlook was raised to approximately 5%-7%, reflecting better-than-expected performance in the first half [28][29] Other Important Information - The company added 1.5 million new consumers to its DTC businesses, driven by digital and full-price store customers [10] - The company plans to exit 90-100 wholesale doors in fiscal 2026, with approximately half related to Hudson's Bay [24] - The company launched an AI styling tool, Ask Ralph, developed with Microsoft, to enhance consumer shopping experience [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Updated outlook for consumer health and brand awareness - Management noted strong momentum in business and no significant changes in consumer behavior, with a focus on attracting full-price customers [40][42] Question: Pricing strategy and tariff mitigation - Management discussed the sustained AUR growth driven by brand investment and pricing actions, with expectations for continued gross margin expansion despite tariff pressures [48][50] Question: Engagement strategies for North America value-oriented consumers - The company emphasized flexibility in pricing and a compelling value proposition to appeal to value-sensitive customers during the holiday season [56][58] Question: North America wholesale trajectory - Management indicated healthy growth in North America wholesale, with expectations for some pressure in the second half due to planned reductions in off-price sales [76][78] Question: Performance in outlet versus full-price channels - Consistent growth was observed across full-price and outlet stores, with a focus on expanding full-price locations while consolidating outlet presence [80]

Core Insights - Figs (FIGS) is valued at $1.33 billion and operates as a direct-to-consumer healthcare apparel and lifestyle brand, offering a range of products including scrubs, lab coats, activewear, and masks [1] - The stock has shown strong technical momentum, reaching a two-year high of $8.24 on October 22, and has gained 30% over the past year [4][3] Company Overview - Figs designs and sells healthcare apparel and non-scrub offerings, including sports bras, performance leggings, and loungewear, primarily through its website and mobile app [1] - The company has a 100% "Buy" technical rating from Barchart, indicating strong market confidence [4][5] Stock Performance - Since the Trend Seeker "Buy" signal was issued on October 15, the stock has appreciated by 5.28% [2] - Figs has achieved 9 new highs and a 17.25% gain in the last month, with a current trading price of $8.11 and a 50-day moving average of $7.09 [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 71.24, suggesting the stock is in a strong upward trend [5]

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