1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the total spot inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate slightly. The bonded inventory accumulation was obvious due to the concentrated arrival and warehousing of previously mixed-to-standard rubber sources from overseas. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed their inventories and were cautious in purchasing, leading to a decline in the overall outbound rate of Qingdao warehouses. [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly last week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 2 - 5 days, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. However, the short - term capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover. [2] - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,550 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2506 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 13,000 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,995 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,855 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. [2] - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 820 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber was 40 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,140 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. [2] - The open interest of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 148,320 lots, down 2,794 lots; the open interest of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 42,898 lots, down 4,390 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 19,695 lots, down 9,184 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 5,267 lots, down 3,228 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 200,500 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 78,826 tons, up 1,008 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,000 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,790 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,790 US dollars/ton, up 150 US dollars. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 95 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 325 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,972 yuan/ton, up 427 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 117 yuan/ton, up 392 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 73.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.14 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 62.67 Thai baht/kg, up 1 Thai baht. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 59.75 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 53.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, down 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 122 US dollars/ton, down 91 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 21.61 tons, up 6.69 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 28.16 tons, up 1.93 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 44.77%, down 11.47 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.35%, down 14.08 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 42.52 days, down 0.56 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.09 days, down 0.82 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.69 million pieces, up 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.66 million pieces, up 11.56 million pieces. [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.38%, down 5.69 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 27.78%, down 1.65 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.94%, down 1.63 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.93%, down 0.09 percentage points. [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (May 11 - 17, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator were mainly distributed in southern Myanmar, western Thailand and southern Thailand. The rainfall in most other areas was moderately low, which had an increasing impact on tapping work. There was no red area south of the equator, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with an expected increasing impact on tapping work. [2] - As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 618,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,500 tons, an increase of 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 90,000 tons, an increase of 5.89%; the general trade inventory was 528,700 tons, a decrease of 0.09%. [2] - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 19% compared with March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat. [2]