1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory accumulation of spot goods at Qingdao Port recently exceeded expectations, with bonded warehouses maintaining destocking and general trade warehouses experiencing significant inventory accumulation. The arrival of mixed rubber at ports increased significantly, while the procurement of some downstream enterprises remained at a normal low level, leading to an unexpected increase in inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated last week, and the production scheduling of enterprises gradually returned to the normal level. Some enterprises moderately increased production to meet order requirements, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short - term, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises is expected to be basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises is expected to run steadily, and the resumption of work of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to a certain extent [2]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,150 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 840 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,010 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 7 - 8 spread was 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,940 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 156,387 lots, up 1,032 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 53,705 lots, up 36,447 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 15,261 lots, up 7,026 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,215 lots, up 251 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 192,680 tons, down 160 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 31,852 tons, down 404 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,700 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,700 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,780 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 150 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 120 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,152 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 142 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 68.75 Thai baht/kg, up 0.95 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 63.77 Thai baht/kg, down 0.92 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 57.75 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 48.05 Thai baht/kg, down 0.25 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 145.6 US dollars/ton, up 12.8 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 11.4 US dollars/ton, down 50.4 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.48%, up 4.24 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.29%, up 0.31 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 41.89 days, up 0.15 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.42 days, up 1.14 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.97%, up 0.46 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.83%, up 0.18 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.47%, up 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.47%, up 0.36 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (from June 22 to June 28, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. In the southern part of the equator, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a low level, which reduced the impact on rubber tapping [2]. - As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 617,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons, an increase of 1.70%. The bonded area inventory was 81,200 tons, a decrease of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 536,100 tons, an increase of 2.51%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.43 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.52 percentage points [2]. - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In Yunnan, the diversion of latex from glue is still prominent, and with weather interference, the raw material purchase price is firm. In Hainan, the weather has improved, tapping work has gradually resumed, and the output of local raw materials has increased. With the support of rigid delivery demand, local processing plants maintain a price - increasing state for raw material purchases. Last week, the total inventory at Qingdao Port increased slightly, with a decrease in bonded warehouses and an increase in general trade inventory. Downstream factories have low purchasing enthusiasm, and terminal procurement is basically on - demand, with a decline in shipment volume compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of previously overhauled enterprises has gradually returned to normal levels. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the short term. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,250 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,200 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 13,870 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 845 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 7 - 8 spread of 20 - number rubber is 65 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1730 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 156,533 lots, down 3,076 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 25,746 lots, down 2,026 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 18,224 lots, down 3,642 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 2,013 lots, down 171 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 193,180 tons, up 250 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 33,465 tons, down 201 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 13,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,715 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,715 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,770 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,720 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,240 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 100 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 67.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.57 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 64.39 Thai baht/kg, up 0.73 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 56.75 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 47.45 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 132.8 US dollars/ton, up 43.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 61.8 US dollars/ton, up 60.8 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 18.68 million tons, down 2.93 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 24.87 million tons, down 3.29 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.24%, down 2.23 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 77.98%, up 4.12 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 41.74 days, down 0.13 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.28 days, up 0.44 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 26.51%, down 0.27 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.66%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.13%, up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.11%, up 0.08 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 15th to June 21st, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. North of the equator, the red areas are mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, southern Cambodia, etc., and the precipitation in most other areas is low, which weakens the impact on tapping work. South of the equator, the red areas are mainly distributed in sporadic areas in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas is medium - low, which increases the impact on tapping work. As of June 15th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 606,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,400 tons, an increase of 0.23%. The bonded area inventory is 83,900 tons, a decrease of 1.87%; the general trade inventory is 522,900 tons, an increase of 0.58%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.14 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1.44 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.82 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points. As of June 12th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.00 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 58.70%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.95 percentage points. The production scheduling of previously overhauled enterprises has gradually returned to normal levels, and the operating rate of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday is to be noted [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,250 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,200 in the short - term. Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to tap. In Yunnan, raw material latex supply is slow due to weather, and raw material purchase prices are firm. In Hainan, typhoon weather is coming, raw material output has decreased, and processing plants are still competing to buy latex. Last week, bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased inventory, while general trade warehouses continued to reduce inventory. Overseas supplies arriving at ports decreased, leading to a continuous decline in the total inventory of Qingdao spot. Tire companies' purchasing sentiment improved, driving the total outbound volume in Qingdao to be greater than the inbound volume. However, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies decreased last week, and the overall order performance of tire companies is average, with a slow pace of finished product inventory reduction. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,585 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 11,930 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 860 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 7 - 8 spread of 20 - number rubber was 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 172,383 lots, an increase of 6,267 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 30,828 lots, a decrease of 2,336 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 24,121 lots, a decrease of 6,259 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 4,696 lots, a decrease of 1,889 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 193,270 tons, a decrease of 70 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 34,372 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,715 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,715 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 265 yuan/ton, up 405 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 60 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,244 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 314 yuan/ton, up 316 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 69.05 Thai baht/kg, up 1.17 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 63.66 Thai baht/kg, up 1.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue water) was 56.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 46.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.45 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 89.2 US dollars/ton, down 118.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 1 US dollar/ton, up 4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, a decrease of 32,900 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.47%, down 1.33 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 25.17%, down 0.32 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.72%, up 0.56 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.22%, down 0.37 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.24%, down 0.35 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From June 8th - 14th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, western Thailand, and south - western Cambodia, which had a greater impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, heavy rainfall areas were mainly in sporadic areas in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, also having a greater impact on tapping. As of June 8th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 605,500 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.67%. The bonded area inventory was 85,600 tons, a decline of 1.5%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 0.54%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 5% from April 2025, and an increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year. [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Natural Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025-05-28 [1] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03139610 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The RU2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,400 in the short term, and the NR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,700 in the short term [2][3] - Last week, the bonded warehouses at Qingdao Port reduced inventory, while the general trade warehouses increased inventory, resulting in a slight overall inventory increase. Overseas arrivals continued to decrease, leading to a continuous decline in bonded warehouse inbound volume. After the decline in rubber prices, most tire enterprises made sporadic purchases based on rigid demand, but the overall volume was relatively limited [2] - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises continued to increase last week. Most enterprises' production schedules gradually stabilized, but some enterprises slightly reduced production to control inventory growth, limiting the overall increase in capacity utilization rate. A few enterprises plan to conduct maintenance at the end of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 690 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract was 12,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan [2] - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 775 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - rubber was 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber was 1,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 191,713 lots, an increase of 22,484 lots; the position of the main 20 - rubber contract was 57,246 lots, a decrease of 7,031 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 24,899 lots, an increase of 2,266 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber was - 4,103 lots, a decrease of 1,175 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 199,080 tons, a decrease of 130 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber were 20,261 tons, a decrease of 10,483 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,470 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 245 yuan/ton, an increase of 390 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,794 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract was 549 yuan/ton, an increase of 714 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 68.9 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.61 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) was 64.82 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.18 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) was 62.75 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 52.1 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.7 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 112 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 59 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, a decrease of 32,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.96%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.22%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 42.86 days, an increase of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 47 days, an increase of 1.22 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 24.43%, an increase of 6.91 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 30.11%, an increase of 2.09 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.27%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.28%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the first week of the future (May 25 - May 31, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in Myanmar and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in Laos and Vietnam was above the medium level, which had a greater impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, most areas had below - medium rainfall, which had a weaker impact on rubber tapping [2] - As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,600 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared with the previous period, with a growth rate of 0.06%. The bonded area inventory was 90,500 tons, a decrease of 1.74%; the general trade inventory was 524,100 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 3.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points [2] - As of May 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.09%, a month - on - month increase of 2.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.11 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the total spot inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate slightly. The bonded inventory accumulation was obvious due to the concentrated arrival and warehousing of previously mixed-to-standard rubber sources from overseas. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed their inventories and were cautious in purchasing, leading to a decline in the overall outbound rate of Qingdao warehouses. [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly last week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 2 - 5 days, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. However, the short - term capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover. [2] - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,550 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2506 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 13,000 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,995 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,855 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. [2] - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 820 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber was 40 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,140 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. [2] - The open interest of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 148,320 lots, down 2,794 lots; the open interest of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 42,898 lots, down 4,390 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 19,695 lots, down 9,184 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 5,267 lots, down 3,228 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 200,500 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 78,826 tons, up 1,008 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,000 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,790 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,790 US dollars/ton, up 150 US dollars. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 95 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 325 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,972 yuan/ton, up 427 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 117 yuan/ton, up 392 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 73.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.14 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 62.67 Thai baht/kg, up 1 Thai baht. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 59.75 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 53.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, down 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 122 US dollars/ton, down 91 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 21.61 tons, up 6.69 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 28.16 tons, up 1.93 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 44.77%, down 11.47 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.35%, down 14.08 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 42.52 days, down 0.56 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.09 days, down 0.82 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.69 million pieces, up 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.66 million pieces, up 11.56 million pieces. [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.38%, down 5.69 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 27.78%, down 1.65 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.94%, down 1.63 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.93%, down 0.09 percentage points. [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (May 11 - 17, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator were mainly distributed in southern Myanmar, western Thailand and southern Thailand. The rainfall in most other areas was moderately low, which had an increasing impact on tapping work. There was no red area south of the equator, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with an expected increasing impact on tapping work. [2] - As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 618,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,500 tons, an increase of 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 90,000 tons, an increase of 5.89%; the general trade inventory was 528,700 tons, a decrease of 0.09%. [2] - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 19% compared with March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat. [2]