Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In the Yunnan producing area, there are still weather disturbances, with strong resistance in raw material procurement and firm procurement prices. In the Hainan producing area, there is excessive precipitation, hindering the progress of rubber tapping operations, and the increase in raw material supply on the island is slow, lower than the same period in previous years. Supported by rigid delivery demand, local processing plants maintain a price - increasing state for raw material procurement [2] - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate significantly. The bonded warehouse has a slight reduction in inventory, while the general trade warehouse continues to accumulate inventory significantly. Downstream enterprises mainly continue to digest inventory. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week showed mixed trends. Some semi - steel tire enterprises arranged production suspension due to external factors, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises. The operation of all - steel tire enterprises was mostly stable, and the overall capacity utilization rate increased slightly due to the resumption of production of some previously overhauled enterprises. Some enterprises have short - term overhaul plans, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is still expected to decline [2] - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,500 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short term [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 14,125 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 35 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,275 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is 15 yuan/ton, and the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 860 yuan/ton. The difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 65 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 156,685 lots, a decrease of 2,925 lots; the trading volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 38,945 lots, a decrease of 1,630 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 286 lots, and the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber are - 139 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 189,150 tons, a decrease of 2,670 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 27,418 tons, an increase of 201 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,000 yuan/ton, the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,550 yuan/ton, the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,730 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,730 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,950 yuan/ton, and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,900 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu Petrochemical butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is - 8.2 US dollars/ton, and the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 137.4 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 14.82 million tons, a decrease of 3.86 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 22.23 million tons, a decrease of 2.64 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.64%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.05%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 41.93 days, an increase of 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 48.15 days, an increase of 0.73 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,182,000 pieces, a decrease of 126,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,415,000 pieces, a decrease of 124,000 pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 17.36%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 22.84%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.82%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.82%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 29 to July 5, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased slightly compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in sporadic areas such as southern Cambodia and northern Vietnam, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with a slightly reduced impact on rubber tapping. The red areas south of the equator were mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little change in the impact on rubber tapping [2] - As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, an increase of 2.40%. The bonded area inventory was 80,700 tons, a decrease of 0.62%; the general trade inventory was 551,400 tons, an increase of 2.85%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.39 percentage points, and the delivery rate decreased by 0.18 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.58 percentage points, and the delivery rate increased by 0.28 percentage points [2] - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a slight increase of 4% from May this year, and an increase of about 29% compared with 71,400 vehicles in the same period last year. Cumulatively, from January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the total spot inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate slightly. The bonded inventory accumulation was obvious due to the concentrated arrival and warehousing of previously mixed-to-standard rubber sources from overseas. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed their inventories and were cautious in purchasing, leading to a decline in the overall outbound rate of Qingdao warehouses. [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly last week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 2 - 5 days, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. However, the short - term capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover. [2] - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,550 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2506 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 13,000 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,995 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,855 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. [2] - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 820 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber was 40 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,140 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. [2] - The open interest of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 148,320 lots, down 2,794 lots; the open interest of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 42,898 lots, down 4,390 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 19,695 lots, down 9,184 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 5,267 lots, down 3,228 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 200,500 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 78,826 tons, up 1,008 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,000 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,790 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,790 US dollars/ton, up 150 US dollars. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,620 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 95 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 325 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,972 yuan/ton, up 427 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 117 yuan/ton, up 392 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 73.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.14 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 62.67 Thai baht/kg, up 1 Thai baht. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 59.75 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 53.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, down 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 122 US dollars/ton, down 91 US dollars. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 21.61 tons, up 6.69 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 28.16 tons, up 1.93 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 44.77%, down 11.47 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 58.35%, down 14.08 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 42.52 days, down 0.56 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.09 days, down 0.82 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.69 million pieces, up 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.66 million pieces, up 11.56 million pieces. [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.38%, down 5.69 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 27.78%, down 1.65 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.94%, down 1.63 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.93%, down 0.09 percentage points. [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (May 11 - 17, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator were mainly distributed in southern Myanmar, western Thailand and southern Thailand. The rainfall in most other areas was moderately low, which had an increasing impact on tapping work. There was no red area south of the equator, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with an expected increasing impact on tapping work. [2] - As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 618,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,500 tons, an increase of 0.73%. The bonded area inventory was 90,000 tons, an increase of 5.89%; the general trade inventory was 528,700 tons, a decrease of 0.09%. [2] - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 19% compared with March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4% compared with 82,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to April this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao is de-stocking, but the de-stocking amplitude has narrowed compared to the previous period. The arrival of ships at Qingdao Port has increased significantly, while downstream factories have basically completed their inventory preparations, and some warehouses have experienced a trend of inventory accumulation due to lower-than-expected提货. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week. The overall sales performance of semi-steel tire enterprises was weak, with increased production and sales pressure, and some enterprises reduced their production. An individual all-steel tire enterprise carried out scheduled maintenance, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. Some small-scale enterprises basically maintained a balance between production and sales, while enterprises with large production volumes continued to see an increase in inventory due to slower sales. It is recommended to trade the ru2509 contract in the range of 14,000 - 14,950 and the nr2506 contract in the range of 12,000 - 12,600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 175 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 3,440 lots to 132,605 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 1,074 lots to 55,934 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 25,225 lots, a decrease of 557 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 4,782 lots, an increase of 467 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange decreased by 10 tons to 200,810 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange decreased by 2,016 tons to 68,948 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 450 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,319 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 67.79 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.7 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 62.67 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 58 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 52.05 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 31 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 29 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 216,100 tons, an increase of 66,900 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 281,600 tons, an increase of 19,300 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.46%, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.11%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 42.73 days, an increase of 0.37 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.6 days, an increase of 0.2 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.69 million pieces, an increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.66 million pieces, an increase of 11.56 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 35.07%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.72%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.73%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.73%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of April 24, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.36%, a decrease of 1.84 percentage points month - on - month and 8.38 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a decrease of 1.65 percentage points month - on - month and 3.84 percentage points year - on - year. As of April 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 608,700 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.62%. The bonded area inventory was 81,500 tons, an increase of 1.11%; the general trade inventory was 527,200 tons, a decrease of 0.88%. The warehousing rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.05 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 1.78 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.17 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1 percentage point. The natural rubber production areas around the world are gradually starting to tap rubber. In the early stage of tapping in Yunnan, the supply of raw materials is slow, and the raw materials are not concentrated yet. The competition for raw materials in the region is fierce, and the purchase price continues to be adjusted upwards. In Hainan, it is also in the early stage of tapping, and affected by powdery mildew and drought in some areas such as Danzhou and Baisha, the supply of fresh latex is slow [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia is expected to decrease slightly, which will reduce the impact on rubber tapping. The inventory in Qingdao continued to decline last week, with reduced arrivals at the port and lower inventory levels in both bonded and general trade. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week, with the utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises weakening and that of all - steel tire enterprises increasing slightly. The report suggests trading the ru2509 contract in the range of 14,500 - 15,200 yuan/ton and the nr2506 contract in the range of 12,200 - 12,900 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,795 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,655 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 55 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread of 20 - number rubber was 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 1,127 lots to 143,798 lots, while that of the main 20 - number rubber contract increased by 164 lots to 63,611 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber increased by 5,583 to - 20,885, and that of 20 - number rubber decreased by 930 to - 1,480. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber increased by 40 tons to 201,190 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber increased by 1,008 tons to 77,919 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 16,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai STR20 was 1,740 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian SMR20 was 1,740 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,350 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene styrene 1502 and cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 140 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,543 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 93 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 65.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.11 Thai baht; the price of rubber sheets was 58.01 Thai baht/kg, up 1.79 Thai baht; the price of glue was 55.75 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the price of cup rubber was 49.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, down 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 2 US dollars/ton, down 109 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 149,200 tons, up 9,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 262,300 tons, down 89,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.43%, down 0.72 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.44%, down 0.08 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 42.36 days, up 0.4 days; that of semi - steel tires was 45.4 days, up 1.08 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.69 million, up 3.09 million; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.66 million, up 11.56 million [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 34.85%, up 0.92 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 26.46%, up 0.45 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.54%, down 0.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.53%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of April 20 - 26, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased slightly compared with the previous period. The impact on rubber tapping is expected to weaken. As of April 17, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.20%, down 0.19 percentage points month - on - month and 6.67 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 67.44%, up 0.23 percentage points month - on - month and down 3.62 percentage points year - on - year. As of April 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 612,500 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.08%. The bonded area inventory was 80,600 tons, a decline of 1.22%; the general trade inventory was 531,900 tons, a decline of 1.06%. The natural rubber producing areas around the world are gradually starting to tap. In Yunnan, the raw material output is limited and the purchase price is firm; in Hainan, large - scale tapping is expected to start this week [2]