Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,250 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,200 in the short - term. Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to tap. In Yunnan, raw material latex supply is slow due to weather, and raw material purchase prices are firm. In Hainan, typhoon weather is coming, raw material output has decreased, and processing plants are still competing to buy latex. Last week, bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased inventory, while general trade warehouses continued to reduce inventory. Overseas supplies arriving at ports decreased, leading to a continuous decline in the total inventory of Qingdao spot. Tire companies' purchasing sentiment improved, driving the total outbound volume in Qingdao to be greater than the inbound volume. However, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies decreased last week, and the overall order performance of tire companies is average, with a slow pace of finished product inventory reduction. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,585 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 11,930 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 860 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 7 - 8 spread of 20 - number rubber was 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 172,383 lots, an increase of 6,267 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 30,828 lots, a decrease of 2,336 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 24,121 lots, a decrease of 6,259 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 4,696 lots, a decrease of 1,889 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 193,270 tons, a decrease of 70 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 34,372 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,715 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,715 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 265 yuan/ton, up 405 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 60 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,244 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 314 yuan/ton, up 316 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 69.05 Thai baht/kg, up 1.17 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 63.66 Thai baht/kg, up 1.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue water) was 56.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 46.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.45 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 89.2 US dollars/ton, down 118.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 1 US dollar/ton, up 4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, a decrease of 32,900 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.47%, down 1.33 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.86%, down 4.39 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 41.87 days, a decrease of 0.09 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 45.84 days, a decrease of 0.38 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, a decrease of 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, a decrease of 4.27 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 25.17%, down 0.32 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.72%, up 0.56 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.22%, down 0.37 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.24%, down 0.35 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From June 8th - 14th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, western Thailand, and south - western Cambodia, which had a greater impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, heavy rainfall areas were mainly in sporadic areas in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, also having a greater impact on tapping. As of June 8th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 605,500 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.67%. The bonded area inventory was 85,600 tons, a decline of 1.5%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 0.54%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of 5% from April 2025, and an increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year. [2]