1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port continued to decline. Both bonded and general trade warehouses showed inventory reduction, with the general trade inventory reduction rate expanding month - on - month. The inflow of overseas goods to the port remained low, the overall inflow rate decreased month - on - month, while some tire companies continued to replenish goods slightly, and the previous orders were gradually picked up, leading to an increase in the overall outflow rate month - on - month [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises stopped or reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Some all - steel tire enterprises resumed work and moderately increased production, but some enterprises still scheduled maintenance, restricting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted, with limited overall fluctuation range [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,200 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,860 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 12,665 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 1,025 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - numbered rubber was - 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber was 3,195 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 125,703 lots, up 790 lots; the position of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 54,903 lots, down 855 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 36,925 lots, up 1,705 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber was - 9,080 lots, up 439 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 180,240 tons, up 4,800 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber in the exchange were 46,166 tons, up 3,326 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Thai STR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian SMR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,530 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 1,110 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,175 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,853 yuan/ton, up 183 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract was 188 yuan/ton, up 138 yuan [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 61.96 Thai baht/kg, up 0.76 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 58.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.35 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 54 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) was 48.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 193 US dollars/ton, up 46 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 42 US dollars/ton, down 4.6 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 46.45 days, up 0.81 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying was 20.58%, up 0.08 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying was 17.47%, unchanged [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.79%, up 1.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.79%, up 1.11 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 10th to 16th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, which increased the impact on tapping operations. In the southern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly distributed in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium level, which also increased the impact on tapping operations [2]. - As of August 10th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 1.89%. The bonded area inventory was 75,300 tons, a decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 2.11%. The inflow rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 0.81 percentage points, and the outflow rate decreased by 0.93 percentage points; the inflow rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outflow rate increased by 0.25 percentage points [2]. - As of August 7th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points month - on - month and a decrease of 9.93 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 0.73 percentage points year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has a shortage of raw material supply and firm purchase prices, while Hainan has normal tapping operations and seasonal output. Due to the decline in futures and spot prices, the market bearish sentiment has emerged, and local processing plants are less willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, leading to a continued decline in the glue purchase price [2]. - Recently, the total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has been decreasing, with both bonded and general trade inventories showing a downward trend. The arrival and warehousing volume of overseas goods remains low, and the overall warehousing rate has decreased month - on - month. The decline in rubber prices has stimulated downstream tire enterprises to replenish goods at low prices, and the overall outbound volume has increased month - on - month [2]. - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires has declined due to some enterprises' maintenance. Although the resumption of work of maintenance enterprises this week will boost the capacity utilization rate, there are also some enterprises with maintenance plans at the beginning of the month, so the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,700 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,365 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 12,160 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 910 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - gauge rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - gauge rubber is 2,205 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 77,028 lots, a decrease of 7,311 lots; the position of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 33,716 lots, a decrease of 3,164 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,534 lots, a decrease of 2,275 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - gauge rubber is - 7,967 lots, a decrease of 1,088 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 176,640 tons, a decrease of 990 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - gauge rubber are 39,816 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,300 yuan/ton; the price of Thai Standard STR20 is 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 is 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 260 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of 20 - gauge rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,369 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 209 yuan/ton, down 127 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.9 Thai baht/kg, down 4.11 Thai baht; the market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 47.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.3 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 147 US dollars/ton, up 6.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 46.6 US dollars/ton, up 11.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.09 million tons, a decrease of 2.73 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 28.08 million tons, an increase of 5.85 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.64 days, down 0.91 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.03%, up 2.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.57%, up 1.17 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 28.92%, down 1.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 28.91%, down 1.89 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 3 - 9, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly in sporadic areas in southern Myanmar, and the precipitation in most other areas is low, reducing the impact on tapping; in the southern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly in eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is moderate, increasing the impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.35%. The bonded area inventory is 75,500 tons, a decline of 0.40%; the general trade inventory is 556,300 tons, a decline of 1.47%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 1.66 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 2.01 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points [2]. - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend. External shipments arriving at the port and entering storage have significantly decreased compared to the previous period, and the rise in rubber prices has boosted tire companies' willingness to replenish stocks, leading to overall outbound volumes exceeding inbound volumes [2]. - In terms of demand, the production schedules of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually increased to normal levels, driving a restorative increase in the overall capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, enterprise production schedules are stabilizing, and there is an expected slight increase in orders in the middle and late months, which is expected to have a small positive impact on overall production. Enterprises adjust production flexibly based on their own inventory and order situations. In the short - term, the overall operating rate is expected to have little fluctuation. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,600 - 15,250, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,895 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,750 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber contracts 9 - 1 was - 765 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spread between 20 - number rubber contracts 8 - 9 was - 35 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,145 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 2,384 lots, and that of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 716 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 5,770 lots, and those in 20 - number rubber decreased by 2,056 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 20 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber increased by 1,312 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 45 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 310 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,762 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheets was 66.3 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber films was 63.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup glue was 48.6 Thai baht/kg, up 0.05 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 174.6 US dollars/ton, up 44.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 32.6 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.1%, up 0.54 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 75.99%, up 3.07 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.85 days, up 0.18 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.18 days, up 0.42 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.39%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.81%, down 0.49 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.3%, down 0.24 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.29%, down 0.27 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of July 20, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 634,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.28%. Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.39%, and general trade inventory decreased by 0.13% [2]. - As of July 17, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The total spot inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade inventories increasing. Overseas supplies arriving at the port for storage increased month - on - month, but the moderate restocking and wait - and - see attitude of downstream tire enterprises restricted the port shipment rate. The domestic tire enterprises' capacity utilization rates varied last week. The production scheduling of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. Some full - steel tire enterprises had maintenance, dragging down the full - steel tire capacity utilization rate slightly. This week, the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and there is room for the capacity utilization rate to recover, which will boost the overall tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,200 - 14,600 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,700 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,490 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,010 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 148,650 lots, down 1,089 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 66,567 lots, up 1,192 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 24,912 lots, up 4,087 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,986 lots, up 1,272 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 187,060 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 36,389 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,350 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 150 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 215 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,470 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was - 20 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 65.29 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 61.6 Thai baht/kg, up 0.21 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 54.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) was 48.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.15 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 130.4 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 16.6 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.39%, down 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.03%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 24.05%, up 0.1 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 24.06%, up 0.11 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 13th to July 19th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Cambodia and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which reduced the impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. As of July 13th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, an increase of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, an increase of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 0.18 percentage points. As of July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up. Overseas shipments arriving at the port increased, but downstream tire companies' cautious replenishment limited the port's shipping rate. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies varied last week. The production of semi - steel tire companies that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire companies dragged down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires. This week, the production of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to recover, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,600 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,600 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,395 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 870 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,015 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 149,739 lots, up 1,146 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 65,375 lots, up 42,790 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 28,999 lots, down 2,443 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 10,258 lots, down 4,310 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 187,060 tons, down 1,590 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 36,792 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was 155 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,439 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 59 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.29 Thai baht/kg, down 0.08 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 61.39 Thai baht/kg, down 0.61 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 54.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 48.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 130.4 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 16.6 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.55%, down 0.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.95%, down 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.95%, up 1.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.95%, up 1.61 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the first week of July 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southern Cambodia and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, with low precipitation in most other areas, reducing the impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southeastern Indonesia, with low precipitation in most other areas, increasing the impact on tapping. As of July 13, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, up 4,000 tons from the previous period, an increase of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, an increase of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.18 percentage points. As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, up 1.66 percentage points month - on - month and down 14.25 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, down 0.42 percentage points month - on - month and up 1.55 percentage points year - on - year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In Yunnan, recent weather disturbances still exist, raw material acquisition resistance remains high, and acquisition prices are firm. In Hainan, there is a lot of rainy weather, which hinders rubber tapping operations, and the increase in raw material supply on the island is slow, lower than the same period in previous years. Supported by rigid delivery demand, local processing plants maintain a state of increasing prices for raw material acquisition. Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has continued to accumulate significantly, with a slight reduction in bonded warehouses and a significant accumulation in general trade warehouses. Downstream enterprises are mainly digesting inventory. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week showed mixed trends. Individual semi-steel tire enterprises arranged production suspension due to external factors, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire enterprises. The operation of all-steel tire enterprise equipment mostly continued to be stable. Individual enterprises that had undergone maintenance earlier resumed production, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have short-term maintenance plans at the end of the month and early next month, which will have a certain impact on the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, there is still an expectation that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will decline. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,150 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,095 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 rubber contract was 12,310 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was -875 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the 8 - 9 spread of 20 rubber was 60 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 rubber was 1,785 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 159,610 lots, up 4,462 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 rubber contract was 41,060 lots, down 1,940 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was -16,021 lots, up 5,488 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 rubber was -5,878 lots, up 61 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 191,820 tons, down 70 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 rubber in the exchange were 27,217 tons, up 303 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,950 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,850 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was -145 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was -85 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of 20 rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,241 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the basis of the main 20 rubber contract was -69 yuan/ton, down 127 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 66.29 Thai baht/kg, down 0.54 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 63 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of rubber latex of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 48.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.9 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 137.4 US dollars/ton, down 8.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 12.4 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.64%, up 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.05%, down 0.24 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.93 days, up 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 48.15 days, up 0.73 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18%, up 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.32%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.96%, up 0.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.96%, up 0.36 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the next week (June 29 - July 5, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber production areas in Southeast Asia will decrease slightly compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly concentrated in sporadic areas such as southern Cambodia and northern Vietnam, and in most other areas, precipitation is at a low level, and the impact on rubber tapping operations will be slightly reduced. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and in most other areas, rainfall is at a low level, and the impact on rubber tapping operations will not change much. As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, an increase of 2.40%. The bonded area inventory was 80,700 tons, a decrease of 0.62%; the general trade inventory was 551,400 tons, an increase of 2.85%. The warehousing rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 1.39 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.18 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.58 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 0.28 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total spot inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate significantly, with a slight reduction in bonded warehouses and a continuous significant accumulation in general trade warehouses. Downstream enterprises mainly focus on inventory digestion. - The capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated last week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises were affected by external factors and arranged production halts, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises. The operation of all - steel tire enterprises was mostly stable, and the overall capacity utilization rate increased slightly due to the resumption of production of some previously overhauled enterprises. However, there are short - term overhaul plans at the end of the month and early next month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,180 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,300 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,985 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 855 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,190 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the 8 - 9 spread was 30 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,795 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 5,408 hands to 155,148 hands, and the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 4,808 hands to 43,000 hands. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber were - 21,509, down 4,150; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber were - 5,939, down 343. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange decreased by 70 tons to 191,890 tons, and the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange decreased by 704 tons to 26,914 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,720 US dollars/ton, and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,720 US dollars/ton, down 50 US dollars/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was 215 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 115 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,248 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 58 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 66.83 Thai baht/kg, up 1.04 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 63 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 57 Thai baht/kg, down 0.25 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 47.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 137.4 US dollars/ton, down 8.2 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 12.4 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.64%, up 0.16 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.05%, down 0.24 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 41.93 days, up 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 48.15 days, up 0.73 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.89%, down 4.23 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.24%, down 0.03 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.61%, down 0.96 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.6%, down 0.98 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the first week of July 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased slightly compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southern Cambodia and northern Vietnam, with low precipitation in most other areas, slightly reducing the impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red area was mainly in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, with little change in the impact on rubber tapping. - As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, an increase of 14,800 tons or 2.40% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.62% to 80,700 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 2.85% to 551,400 tons. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 1.39 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.18 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.28 percentage points. - As of June 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.40%, down 1.14 percentage points from the previous period and 9.61 percentage points from the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, up 0.84 percentage points from the previous period and down 0.32 percentage points from the same period last year [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for the ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,300 - 14,250, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,600 - 12,300. The overall supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, with rain in Yunnan and tropical depressions in Hainan affecting raw material supply. The inventory in Qingdao shows a mixed trend, with an overall increase in total inventory. The demand side sees the tire enterprise production gradually returning to normal, and the short - term capacity utilization is expected to be basically stable [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,040 yuan/ton, down 845 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 270 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,145 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 7 - 8 spread is 335 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1,895 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. The trading volume and net positions of the two contracts also show different changes [2] Spot Market - The prices of various types of natural rubber and synthetic rubber in the spot market have different trends. For example, the price of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex is 10,000 yuan/ton (data incomplete), and the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,685 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of different forms of Thai raw rubber show different changes, with RSS3 theoretical production profit at 145.6 US dollars/ton, up 12.8 US dollars, and STR20 theoretical production profit at 11.4 US dollars/ton, down 50.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technical - classified natural rubber and mixed rubber has decreased [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires have increased, but the inventory days, production volume of both types of tires have decreased [2] Option Market - The historical volatility and implied volatility of the underlying asset show different trends. The historical 20 - day volatility is 22.19%, down 5.06%, and the historical 40 - day volatility is 23.26%, up 0.61%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options is 24.27%, up 1.03% [2] Industry News - In the first week of June 2025, rainfall in the Southeast Asian main producing areas of natural rubber changed, affecting the rubber tapping work. As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased, with a decrease in bonded area inventory and an increase in general trade inventory [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory accumulation of spot goods at Qingdao Port recently exceeded expectations, with bonded warehouses maintaining destocking and general trade warehouses experiencing significant inventory accumulation. The arrival of mixed rubber at ports increased significantly, while the procurement of some downstream enterprises remained at a normal low level, leading to an unexpected increase in inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated last week, and the production scheduling of enterprises gradually returned to the normal level. Some enterprises moderately increased production to meet order requirements, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short - term, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises is expected to be basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises is expected to run steadily, and the resumption of work of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to a certain extent [2]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,150 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 840 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,010 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 7 - 8 spread was 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,940 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 156,387 lots, up 1,032 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 53,705 lots, up 36,447 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 15,261 lots, up 7,026 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,215 lots, up 251 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 192,680 tons, down 160 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 31,852 tons, down 404 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,700 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,700 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,780 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 150 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 120 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,152 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 142 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 68.75 Thai baht/kg, up 0.95 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 63.77 Thai baht/kg, down 0.92 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 57.75 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 48.05 Thai baht/kg, down 0.25 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 145.6 US dollars/ton, up 12.8 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 11.4 US dollars/ton, down 50.4 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.48%, up 4.24 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.29%, up 0.31 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 41.89 days, up 0.15 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.42 days, up 1.14 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.97%, up 0.46 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.83%, up 0.18 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.47%, up 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.47%, up 0.36 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (from June 22 to June 28, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. In the southern part of the equator, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a low level, which reduced the impact on rubber tapping [2]. - As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 617,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons, an increase of 1.70%. The bonded area inventory was 81,200 tons, a decrease of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 536,100 tons, an increase of 2.51%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.43 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.52 percentage points [2]. - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In Yunnan, the diversion of latex from glue is still prominent, and with weather interference, the raw material purchase price is firm. In Hainan, the weather has improved, tapping work has gradually resumed, and the output of local raw materials has increased. With the support of rigid delivery demand, local processing plants maintain a price - increasing state for raw material purchases. Last week, the total inventory at Qingdao Port increased slightly, with a decrease in bonded warehouses and an increase in general trade inventory. Downstream factories have low purchasing enthusiasm, and terminal procurement is basically on - demand, with a decline in shipment volume compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of previously overhauled enterprises has gradually returned to normal levels. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the short term. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,250 in the short term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,200 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 13,870 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,140 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 845 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 7 - 8 spread of 20 - number rubber is 65 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1730 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 156,533 lots, down 3,076 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 25,746 lots, down 2,026 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 18,224 lots, down 3,642 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 2,013 lots, down 171 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 193,180 tons, up 250 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 33,465 tons, down 201 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 13,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,715 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,715 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,770 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,720 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,240 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 100 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 67.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.57 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 64.39 Thai baht/kg, up 0.73 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 56.75 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 47.45 Thai baht/kg, up 0.4 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 132.8 US dollars/ton, up 43.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 61.8 US dollars/ton, up 60.8 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 18.68 million tons, down 2.93 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 24.87 million tons, down 3.29 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.24%, down 2.23 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 77.98%, up 4.12 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 41.74 days, down 0.13 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.28 days, up 0.44 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 26.51%, down 0.27 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.66%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.13%, up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.11%, up 0.08 percentage points [2] Industry News - From June 15th to June 21st, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. North of the equator, the red areas are mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar, southern Cambodia, etc., and the precipitation in most other areas is low, which weakens the impact on tapping work. South of the equator, the red areas are mainly distributed in sporadic areas in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas is medium - low, which increases the impact on tapping work. As of June 15th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 606,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,400 tons, an increase of 0.23%. The bonded area inventory is 83,900 tons, a decrease of 1.87%; the general trade inventory is 522,900 tons, an increase of 0.58%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.14 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate increased by 1.44 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.82 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.29 percentage points. As of June 12th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.00 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 58.70%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.95 percentage points. The production scheduling of previously overhauled enterprises has gradually returned to normal levels, and the operating rate of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday is to be noted [2]