1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View - The ru2609 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,300 - 16,800 in the short - term, and the nr2606 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,415 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 70; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,665 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 40 [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 71,598 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 9,869; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 32,309 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,180 [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 28,015, with a week - on - week increase of 288; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,586, with a week - on - week increase of 2,184 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 125,410 tons, with no change; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 43,545 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 350; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,015 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 [2] - The price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,015 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 19,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 300; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 19,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is 235 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 280; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 645 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 95 [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,943 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 144; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 278 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 204 [2] - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 79.55 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.6; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 71.05 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 1.05 [2] - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 80 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13.6; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 16 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 16 [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 139,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 242,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 103,100 tons [2] - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.77%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.3%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 38.97 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.12; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 43.72 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.93%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.08%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.49%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.41; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.48%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.42 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and about an 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The double - decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2] - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a 0.85% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a 1.62% decrease; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, a 1.38% increase [2] - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly increased. The bonded warehouse has shown de - stocking, and the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate inventory. The total port inbound volume has slightly increased. The de - stocked rubber types in the bonded warehouse are mainly old Indonesian standard rubber and African rubber. Recently, rubber prices have fluctuated unstably, and downstream tire factories have made cautious replenishments for the rigid demand of mixed rubber, resulting in a slight increase in the total inventory [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises mainly fluctuated within a narrow range. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises strived to meet quarterly tasks, which supported the overall capacity utilization rate, but some enterprises had short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, which slightly dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2609 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,200 - 16,800 in the short - term, and the nr2606 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short - term [2] - The overall inventory of Qingdao Port has slightly increased, with the bonded warehouse showing de - stocking and the general trade warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory. The rubber price fluctuates, and downstream tire factories make cautious replenishments for mixed rubber [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates slightly. Some enterprises' pursuit of quarterly tasks supports the overall capacity utilization rate, but short - term maintenance arrangements of individual enterprises may slightly drag it down [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,345 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan [2] - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan [2] - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 71,598 lots, a decrease of 9,869 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 38,489 lots, a decrease of 4,554 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 28,303 lots, a decrease of 516 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 8,770 lots, an increase of 522 lots [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125,410 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 43,545 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 740 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,932 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 87 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 78.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.99 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 71.05 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 1.05 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 79.5 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 16 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 139,600 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 242,400 tons, a decrease of 103,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly starting rate of all - steel tires is 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the weekly starting rate of semi - steel tires is 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 19.3%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 21.89%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 27.9%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 27.9%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month [2] - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a 0.85% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a 1.62% decrease; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, a 1.38% increase [2] - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a 0.05 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 1.18 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 3.88 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [2] 3.7 Weather Conditions - In the first week of the future (March 29 - April 4, 2026), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared with the previous period. There is no red area north of the equator, and the precipitation in most other areas is low, with a weak impact on tapping. South of the equator, the red area is mainly concentrated in western Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, with an enhanced impact on tapping [2] 3.8 Regional Production Situation - In the Yunnan Banna area in China, the weather is sunny, the glue prices are quoted differently, and there are signs of raw material grabbing. The Hainan area has started the new - year tapping season. In some southern and western areas, tapping has started sporadically, but the continuous high - temperature weather has restricted the tapping operation and glue output. Attention should be paid to the weather and rubber tree growth conditions at the beginning of tapping [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The RU2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,150 - 16,880 in the short - term, and the NR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,100 in the short - term [2] - The overall inventory in Qingdao Port has slightly increased, with the bonded warehouse showing de - stocking and the general trade warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory. The rubber price fluctuates unsteadily, and downstream tire factories replenish their stocks of mixed rubber cautiously [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates narrowly. Some enterprises strive to meet quarterly tasks, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate, but individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, slightly dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,540 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,845 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 110 yuan/ton; the 5 - 6 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with an increase of 15 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 81,467 lots, a decrease of 10,483 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 43,043 lots, a decrease of 4,390 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 27,787 lots, an increase of 3,667 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,292 lots, a decrease of 674 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 125,410 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 43,545 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 16,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,020 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,015 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,630 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 18,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 830 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 16 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 139,600 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 242,400 tons, a decrease of 103,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.3%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.89%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 29.43%, a decrease of 1.97 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 29.43%, a decrease of 1.98 percentage points [2] Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2] - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a 0.85% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a 1.62% decrease; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, a 1.38% increase [2] - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a 0.05 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 1.18 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 3.88 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has returned to the inventory accumulation rhythm, and it is expected that the general trade inventory in Qingdao may continue to accumulate slightly in the short term [2]. - The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly last week. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The operating rates are expected to remain high at the end of the quarter, but individual enterprises may adjust production schedules flexibly [2]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 16,850, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,460 yuan/ton, and that of the 20 - number rubber is 13,635 yuan/ton [2]. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 0 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton [2]. - The difference between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is - 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber decreased by 5,068 hands to 102,159 hands, and that of the 20 - number rubber decreased by 4,368 hands to 51,030 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 704 to - 30,970, and that of the 20 - number rubber is - 213 [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125,410 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber are 43,949 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,700 yuan/ton, and that of Vietnamese 3L is 16,300 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,005 US dollars/ton, and that of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,000 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,520 yuan/ton, and that of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,470 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18,700 yuan/ton, and that of butadiene BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 13.6 US dollars/ton, and that of STR20 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber decreased by 2.95 tons, and that of mixed rubber decreased by 10.31 tons to 13.96 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.72%, and that of semi - steel tires is 78.25% [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong decreased by 2.82 days to 41.09 days, and those of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.75 days to 44.59 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires decreased by 458,000 pieces to 813,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.507 million pieces to 3.461 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset decreased by 0.01%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.06% to 19.39% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options decreased by 0.77% to 31.4%, and that of at - the - money put options decreased by 0.77% to 31.41% [2]. Industry News - In February 2026, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 75,000 vehicles, a decrease of nearly 30% from January 2025 and about 8% from the same period last year. The cumulative sales volume from January to February exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [2]. - As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.18% [2]. - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is steadily advancing the tapping process, and new domestic rubber is gradually entering the market. Overseas natural rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has increased, with both bonded and general trade warehouses seeing an increase. The total inbound volume at the port has increased significantly month - on - month. Although downstream tire factories replenish stocks moderately at low prices, the increase in inbound volume exceeds the outbound volume, and the port's total inventory has returned to the accumulation rhythm. It is expected that the general trade warehouse in Qingdao may continue to accumulate inventory slightly in the short term [2]. - Last week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased slightly month - on - month. Semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly focused on fulfilling foreign trade orders. Coupled with the tight supply of domestic sales, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has increased slightly. Driven by price increase news, enterprises' shipments are concentrated, and the shortage phenomenon is obvious, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. As the end of the quarter approaches, some enterprises are expected to maintain a high operating rate to complete quarterly tasks, but there may be flexible production scheduling adjustments by individual enterprises. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,900 - 13,600 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,225 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,310 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 255 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between the Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 contracts is - 10 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the spread between the 20 - number rubber 5 - 6 contracts is - 55 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,915 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 175 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 111,774 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,117 hands; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 57,562 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,141 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 34,195, with a month - on - month increase of 3,937; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,794, with a month - on - month decrease of 253 [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 125,410 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 30 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 45,159 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 604 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,955 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,950 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 18,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,200 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 145 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 145 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 915 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,366 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 311 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 240 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 73.9 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 70 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 75.5 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 1 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 32 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 19 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 94,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.54 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 41.09 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 44.59 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.75 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.37%, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.74 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 23.06%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 32.17%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 32.18%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.81 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to preliminary data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% month - on - month decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% year - on - year decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The year - on - year and month - on - month decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month [2]. - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons, an increase of 1.18%. The bonded area inventory was 122,100 tons, an increase of 0.66%; the general trade inventory was 563,500 tons, an increase of 1.29%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.41 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.50 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.62 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.41 percentage points [2]. - According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of China's semi - steel tires was 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of the sample enterprises of all - steel tires was 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port decreased slightly recently, with the bonded warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory and the general trade warehouse reducing inventory. It is expected that the general trade warehouse will continue to see a slight reduction in inventory in the short term. - The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week, with the production schedules of tire companies basically returning to normal, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. The export of tire companies in some regions still faces resistance due to the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, and there is a possibility of a slight decline in the short term. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,250 - 17,000, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 16,400 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 13,105 yuan/ton, down 365 yuan. - **Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 100 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 95 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,295 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. - **Positions**: The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 5,883 lots to 127,172 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 427 lots to 61,137 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Rubber Prices**: The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market decreased by 500 yuan; the price of Thailand's RMB mixed rubber was 15,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysia's RMB mixed rubber was 15,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - **Synthetic Rubber Prices**: The price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene - styrene 1502 was 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 15,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Raw Material Prices**: The market reference price of Thai rubber smoke sheets was 74.3 baht/kg, up 0.2 baht; the price of Thai rubber sheets was 70 baht/kg, up 0.45 baht; the price of Thai rubber glue was 73 baht/kg, up 0.7 baht; the price of Thai cup rubber was 52.95 baht/kg, up 0.85 baht. - **Import Volumes**: The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 19.93 million tons, an increase of 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 39.63 million tons, an increase of 9.41 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 70.22%, up 4.32 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 77.71%, up 3.68 percentage points. - **Inventory Days**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 43.91 days, down 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week was 43.84 days, up 0.74 days. - **Output**: The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, up 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 24.76%, up 1.68 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.88%, up 0.73 percentage points. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.87%, down 0.2 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 31.86%, down 0.2 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - **Heavy - Truck Sales**: In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an 8% decrease from the same period last year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. - **Inventory in Qingdao Port**: As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in the bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The bonded area inventory increased by 1.43% to 121,300 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.81% to 556,300 tons. - **Tire Enterprise Capacity Utilization**: As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port decreased slightly, with the bonded warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory and the general trade warehouse reducing inventory. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease slightly in the short term [2]. - The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week, and the production schedules of tire enterprises have basically returned to normal levels, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. The export of tire enterprises in some regions is still facing resistance due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, and there is a possibility of a slight decline in the short term. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,700 - 17,500, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,350 - 14,000 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 16,870 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 105 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 85 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,495 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 175 yuan/ton; the 5 - 6 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, with an increase of 55 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,375 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 70 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 134,869 lots, with a decrease of 5,436 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 64,390 lots, with a decrease of 3,283 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 46,283 lots, with an increase of 3,095 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,938 lots, with an increase of 256 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 120,800 tons, with a decrease of 40 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 49,291 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,750 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 16,900 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 300 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 2,015 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 35 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 2,010 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 35 US dollars/ton [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 230 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 230 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 15,800 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 15,800 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 120 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 255 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,215 yuan/ton, with an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,801 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 232 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 306 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 407 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber flakes was 72.57 Thai baht/kg, with a decrease of 0.55 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber sheets was 67.85 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.15 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 71 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.4 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup glue was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with an increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 13 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 4 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, with an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, with an increase of 94,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 70.22%, with an increase of 4.32 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 77.71%, with an increase of 3.68 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 43.91 days, with a decrease of 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 43.84 days, with an increase of 0.74 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, with a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, with an increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 23.3%, with an increase of 0.55 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.17%, with an increase of 0.52 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 30.28%, with a decrease of 2.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 30.27%, with a decrease of 2.07 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 75,000 units, a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a decrease of about 8% compared with the same period last year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The inventory in the bonded area was 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the inventory in general trade was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 0.81% [2]. - As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber producing areas have entered the seasonal supply off - season, with firm raw material prices. Recently, the bonded warehouses at Qingdao Port have continued to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses have reduced inventory, and the total inventory has slightly increased. Overseas has entered the seasonal low - production season, the arrival of US - dollar - denominated standard rubber has shown a decreasing trend. The synthetic rubber has strengthened due to the continuous tension in the Middle East situation. After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises have resumed production, leading to an increase in natural rubber buying, and the inventory accumulation rate at Qingdao Port warehouses has significantly narrowed compared to the previous period. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has rebounded significantly week - on - week, and most enterprises have returned to normal levels, boosting the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the short - term situation is unstable, and there are still obstacles to order shipments in the Middle East, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The RU2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,850 - 17,500 in the short - term, and the NR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short - term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 17,180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 65 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,720 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 110 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the 4 - 5 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 195 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,460 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 143,610 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,973 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 67,414 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,665 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 41,472 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,284 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,072 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,049 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 120,540 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 49,795 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 17,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 2,050 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 2,045 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,870 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,820 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2,500 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 15,200 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,100 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 185 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,245 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 14,038 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 68 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 318 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 33 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber flakes was 71.89 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber sheets was 67.85 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 69.8 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup glue was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 17 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber was 199,300 tons, with an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 396,300 tons, with an increase of 94,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.9%, with a week - on - week increase of 36.73 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.03%, with a week - on - week increase of 39.47 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 45.79 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 43.1 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.99 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.82%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 21.63%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.03%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 31.03%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations of the Spring Festival month. As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 500 tons, with a growth rate of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, with a growth rate of 1.27%; the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, with a decline rate of 0.18%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouses increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points. The bonded warehouses in Qingdao Port continued to accumulate inventory, the general trade warehouses reduced inventory, and the total inventory slightly increased. As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a week - on - week increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a week - on - week increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.33 percentage points. Most enterprises have returned to normal levels, boosting the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises [2]. Suggested Attention - The operating rate of Longzhong's tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber产区进入季节性供应淡季，原料价格坚挺，海外进入季节性低产季，美金标胶到港呈现缩减趋势，中东局势持续紧张，合成橡胶走强，叠加节后胎企复工复产，天然橡胶买盘增加，青岛港口仓库出库量增加，累库幅度较上期明显缩窄 [2] - 上周国内轮胎企业开工率环比明显回升，目前多数企业已恢复至常规水平，提振样本企业产能利用率大幅走高，但中东地缘冲突升级，中东地区订单出货阻力加大，或将限制轮胎企业产能利用率提升幅度 [2] - ru2605合约短线预计在16600 - 17500区间波动，nr2605合约短线预计在13400 - 14000区间波动 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - 沪胶主力合约收盘价为16895元/吨，环比涨60元/吨；20号胶主力合约收盘价为13610元/吨，环比涨40元/吨 [2] - 沪胶5 - 9差为120元/吨，环比涨35元/吨；20号胶4 - 5价差为 - 145元/吨，环比降20元/吨 [2] - 沪胶与20号胶价差为3285元/吨，环比涨20元/吨 [2] - 沪胶主力合约持仓量为144455手，环比降5268手；20号胶主力合约持仓量为65473手，环比降424手 [2] - 沪胶前20名净持仓为 - 47989手，环比降4441手；20号胶前20名净持仓为 - 8645手，环比降343手 [2] - 沪胶交易所仓单为120540吨，环比增3000吨；20号胶交易所仓单为50601吨，环比增202吨 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - 上海市场国营全乳胶价格为16950元/吨，环比涨350元/吨；上海市场越南3L价格为17050元/吨，环比涨250元/吨 [2] - 泰标STR20价格为2025美元/吨，环比涨20美元/吨；马标SMR20价格为2020美元/吨，环比涨20美元/吨 [2] - 泰国人民币混合胶价格为15720元/吨，环比涨200元/吨；马来西亚人民币混合胶价格为15670元/吨，环比涨200元/吨 [2] - 齐鲁石化丁苯1502价格为13600元/吨，环比持平；齐鲁石化顺丁BR9000价格为14300元/吨，环比涨900元/吨 [2] - 沪胶基差为55元/吨，环比涨290元/吨；沪胶主力合约非标准品基差为 - 1115元/吨，环比降80元/吨 [2] - 青岛市场20号胶价格为13909元/吨，环比涨142元/吨；20号胶主力合约基差为299元/吨，环比涨102元/吨 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 泰国生胶烟片市场参考价为70.61泰铢/公斤，环比降0.28泰铢/公斤；胶片市场参考价为67.61泰铢/公斤，环比降0.09泰铢/公斤 [2] - 泰国生胶胶水市场参考价为69泰铢/公斤，环比持平；杯胶市场参考价为52.95泰铢/公斤，环比涨0.85泰铢/公斤 [2] - RSS3理论生产利润为138.6美元/吨，环比涨13.6美元/吨；STR20理论生产利润为 - 17美元/吨，环比降11美元/吨 [2] - 技术分类天然橡胶月度进口量为19.93万吨，环比增3.05万吨；混合胶月度进口量为39.63万吨，环比增9.41万吨 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - 全钢胎开工率为65.9%，环比增36.73个百分点；半钢胎开工率为74.03%，环比增39.47个百分点 [2] - 全钢轮胎山东库存天数期末值为45.79天，环比降1.25天；半钢轮胎山东库存天数期末值为43.1天，环比降0.99天 [2] - 全钢胎当月产量为1271万条，环比降15万条；半钢胎当月产量为5968万条，环比增129万条 [2] 3.5 Option Market - 标的历史20日波动率为25.79%，环比降0.29个百分点；标的历史40日波动率为21.95%，环比增0.34个百分点 [2] - 平值看涨期权隐含波动率为27.76%，环比增0.38个百分点；平值看跌期权隐含波动率为27.77%，环比增0.4个百分点 [2] 3.6 Industry News - 2026年2月我国重卡市场销售7.5万辆左右，环比2025年1月下降近3成，比上年同期下滑约8%；1 - 2月累计销量超过18万辆，同比增长约17%，2月下降主要是春节月季节性波动 [2] - 截至2026年3月8日，青岛地区天胶保税和一般贸易合计库存量68.04万吨，环比增加0.05万吨，增幅0.07%，保税区库存11.96万吨，增幅1.27%，一般贸易库存56.09万吨，降幅0.18%，总库存小幅累库 [2] - 截至3月5日，中国半钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率为74.53%，环比增43.76个百分点，同比降5.28个百分点；全钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率为65.38%，环比增39.34个百分点，同比增3.33个百分点 [2] 3.7 Weather Impact - 未来第一周（2026年3月8日 - 2026年3月14日）天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期增加，赤道以北红色区域暂无，其余大部分区域降水处于偏低状态，对割胶工作影响略有增强；赤道以南红色区域主要集中在马来西亚及印尼南部地区，其他大部分区域降雨量处于中等状态，对割胶工作影响增强 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber production area has entered the seasonal supply off - season, with firm raw material prices. After the Spring Festival, the arrival and warehousing volume of overseas goods decreased significantly, but the unexpected increase in rubber prices has raised the risk - aversion sentiment of downstream enterprises. They only replenished a small amount of goods for rigid demand, and the total outbound volume remained at a low level. The inventory in Qingdao's bonded and general trade warehouses has increased, but the increase rate has narrowed compared to the previous period. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has rebounded significantly, and the short - term production capacity utilization rate is still in the stage of gradual recovery, which will drive the continuous recovery of production capacity utilization. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,500 - 17,000, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,740 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,535 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 125 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 4 - 5 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 95 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,205 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 152,591 lots, down 7,755 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 63,605 lots, up 36,896 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 43,097 lots, down 1,729 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11,304 lots, down 1,964 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 115,070 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 50,601 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 17,000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,730 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,680 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 13,200 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene rubber BR9000 is 13,300 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is 15 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 1,105 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 14,297 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 797 yuan/ton, up 441 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 72.29 Thai baht/kg, up 0.28 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 67.51 Thai baht/kg, up 3.46 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 68.8 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 6 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 19.93 million tons, up 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 million tons, up 9.41 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 29.17%, up 14.97 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 34.56%, up 20.32 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 47.04 days, down 0.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.09 days, down 0.34 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, up 1.29 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 25.88%, up 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.48%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.57%, up 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.55%, up 0.23 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a nearly 30% month - on - month decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% year - on - year decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons, an increase of 1.82%. The inventory in the bonded area was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 6.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.39 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouses decreased by 8.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.02 percentage points [2] 3.7 Production Area Weather - From March 1 to March 7, 2026, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. There was no red area north of the equator, and the precipitation in most other areas was at a low level, which had less impact on rubber tapping. The red areas south of the equator were mainly concentrated in Malaysia and sporadic areas in southern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a low level, which also had less impact on rubber tapping [2]