| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16740 | -95 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13535 | -55 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 125 | -5 20号胶4-5价差(日,元/吨) | -95 | -5 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3205 | -130 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 152591 | -7755 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 63605 | 36896 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -43097 | -1729 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -11304 | -1964 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 115070 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 50601 | 0 | | | | | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 16850 2035 | 50 上海市场越南3L(日 ...

40.55%，环比-19.90个百分点，同比-13.74个百分点。 05合约短线预计在16500-17300区间波动,nr2604合约短线预计在13500-14000区间波动。 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 天然橡胶产业日报 2026-02-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17240 | 210 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13980 | 185 | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 130 | -70 20号胶4-5价差(日,元/吨) | -45 | 5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3260 | 25 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 175091 | 13023 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 45890 | -1632 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -35223 | 2014 | | | 20 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17030 | 715 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13795 | 615 | | | 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 200 | 80 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | -70 | -10 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3235 | 100 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 162068 | 21833 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 47522 | -263 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -37237 | -3430 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -7717 | 282 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 112570 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 50601 | -202 | | | | 现货市场 | | 16800 | | 16600 | | | | 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨 ...

，装置排产逐步进入收尾状态，将拖拽整体产能利用率下行，短期轮胎企业产能利用率或将有所下滑。ru2 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 605合约短线预计在15700-16700区间波动,nr2604合约短线预计在12750-13300区间波动，短期大宗商品价 免责声明 格受宏观情绪影响较大，建议观望为主。 天然橡胶产业日报 2026-02-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶5-9差(日,元/吨) | 15980 130 | -380 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -5 20号胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | 12925 -45 | -310 | | 期货市场 | | | | | 0 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3055 | -70 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 155994 | -16624 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 276 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the non - tapping period, while the Thai producing areas are still in the peak production period. The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate. The inventory in bonded and general trade warehouses has both increased, with the total accumulation rate showing little change compared to the previous period. African rubber is the main type of overseas shipments arriving at the port. The downstream enterprises' sentiment of stocking up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased month - on - month. The general trade inventory accumulation rate has narrowed. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly month - on - month. The short - term operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high, and the overall device scheduling is expected to remain stable. There is still a phenomenon of production control in all - steel tire enterprises to control inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,250 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,745 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,615 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 55 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,130 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 181,112 lots, up 2,136 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 62,058 lots, down 1,666 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 47,357 lots, down 1,794 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,803 lots, up 357 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 109,870 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 55,742 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,880 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,875 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 345 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 870 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,161 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 546 yuan/ton, down 144 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 59.59 Thai baht/kg, down 0.66 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 56.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.52 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 57 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.1 days, up 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.92 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.12%, down 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.04%, up 0.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.68%, down 0.4 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.67%, down 0.41 percentage points [2] Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, an increase of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short - term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short - term. The overall inventory in Qingdao port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, though the overall accumulation rate has narrowed. Overseas shipments are expected to decrease, but due to the unexpected increase in rubber prices, downstream buyers are mainly observing and replenishing, with weak purchasing sentiment and continued inventory accumulation. In terms of demand, last week, domestic tire enterprises adjusted production flexibly, with the semi - steel tire enterprise operating rate rising slightly month - on - month and the all - steel tire enterprise operating rate falling month - on - month, entering the seasonal off - season. The overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, finished product inventory is rising, and under production and sales pressure, some enterprises have production suspension or limitation phenomena [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,670 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 45 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of No. 20 rubber is 12,690 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the 2 - 3 spread of No. 20 rubber is - 35 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The spread between Shanghai rubber and No. 20 rubber is 2,980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 175,574 lots, down 3,817 lots; the position of the main contract of No. 20 rubber is 35,012 lots, down 3,230 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 46,555 lots, up 1,182 lots; the net position of the top 20 in No. 20 rubber is - 13,179 lots, up 891 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 97,290 tons, up 700 tons; the warehouse receipts of No. 20 rubber in the exchange are 57,556 tons, down 505 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,875 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,870 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 370 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 965 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The price of No. 20 rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,152 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of No. 20 rubber is 462 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.01 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 55.49 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht/kg. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 17.4 US dollars/ton, down 19.8 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.95%, down 1.18 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.05%, up 0.61 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end are 43.78 days, up 1.87 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end are 46.86 days, up 0.38 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 14.11%, down 0.48 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.83%, up 0.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.13%, up 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.13%, up 0.19 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 1 million vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 685,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 524,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,600 tons, an increase of 1.87%. The bonded area inventory was 81,400 tons, an increase of 2.25%; the general trade inventory was 443,400 tons, an increase of 1.80%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.08 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.38 percentage points. As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points, a year - on - year increase of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with the overall accumulation rate narrowing month - on - month. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level, and rubber prices fluctuate downward. Tire companies make purchases according to demand, and the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved. The warehouse outbound volume has increased slightly month - on - month, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. - The resumption of production by previously - overhauled enterprises has driven up the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises this week. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment pace of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, which limits the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. As the finished product inventory continues to rise, some enterprises may carry out overhauls or reduce production in the later stage. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,185 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 20 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,270 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,915 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 124,546 lots, down 1,503 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 58,112 lots, down 1,198 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 28,509 lots, down 2,179 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,670 lots, up 1,129 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 53,430 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 60,380 tons, up 101 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 15,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,450 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 365 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 715 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,810 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 540 yuan/ton, down 224 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 58.14 Thai baht/kg, down 0.37 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 125 US dollars/ton, down 23.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 43.2 US dollars/ton, up 70.2 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.5%, up 0.17 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.92%, up 1.73 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.51 days, down 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.95 days, down 0.28 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.38%, down 0.69 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 15.87%, up 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.63%, down 0.61 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.64%, down 0.6 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. - As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase of 2.08%; the general - trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase of 1.38%. - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate significantly, with inventory piling up in both bonded and general trade warehouses. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage remain at a high level, but downstream factories arrange production flexibly and stock up cautiously, leading to a large - scale inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. - Domestic tire companies' capacity utilization has increased week - on - week, but the shipment pace of each tire company is slow. Short - term production control behavior still exists, and the increase in overall capacity utilization is expected to be limited. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11800 - 12200 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15040 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 11970 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. - The trading volume and open interest of related contracts changed, with the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai rubber increasing by 65920 hands to 123975 hands, and that of the 20 - number rubber decreasing by 2375 hands to 36885 hands. - The Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber spreads and their changes were also reported, along with the net positions of the top 20 in both contracts and the exchange warehouse receipts [2]. Spot Market - The prices of various types of natural rubber in the Shanghai market and synthetic rubber in the spot market changed. For example, the price of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 14850 yuan/ton, while the price of Shanghai market Vietnam 3L decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 15200 yuan/ton. - The base spreads of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber and their changes were also presented [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference prices of different forms of Thai raw rubber (such as smoke sheets, films, glue water, and cup glue) and their changes were given. - The theoretical production profits of RSS3 and STR20 and their changes were reported. - The monthly import volumes of technical - classified natural rubber and mixed rubber and their changes were provided [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires, inventory days, and production volumes and their changes were reported. For example, the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.33%, up 1.08 percentage points; the monthly production volume of all - steel tires was 12420000 pieces, down 720000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying asset, and the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options and their changes were reported [2]. Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November, the cumulative sales exceeded 1000000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. - As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (including bonded and general trade) was 481600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.71%. - As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has increased significantly. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for warehousing remain at a high level, but downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mood with low stocking willingness. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will gradually recover next week, but the increase will be limited due to some enterprises' maintenance plans. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,900 - 15,600 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,800 - 12,600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,280 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,205 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The positions of both contracts decreased, with the main Shanghai rubber contract's position down 9,867 hands and the main 20 - number rubber contract's position down 2,617 hands [2] Spot Market - The price of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex is 14,650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Shanghai market Vietnam 3L is 15,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,825 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.91 Thai baht/kg, down 0.46 Thai baht; the price of rubber sheet is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 62.25%, down 2.25 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.05%, down 3.63 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.18%, down 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.04%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.29%, down 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.3%, down 0.25 percentage points [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.60%. As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory accumulation of natural rubber in Qingdao area has narrowed month - on - month, with a slight destocking in bonded warehouses and continuous inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses. After the concentrated arrival of previously postponed overseas orders, the bonded warehouse inventory is expected to increase further, while the general trade warehouse inventory inflow will significantly decrease. The downstream demand remains at a normal level of rigid demand, but the inventory inflow is still greater than the outflow, so the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area may continue to accumulate in the short term. - The production scheduling of tire maintenance enterprises in China last week returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. This week, most enterprises will maintain stable production to meet order requirements, but it is reported that some enterprises have maintenance plans in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,300 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,300 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,220 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 12,180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton. - The open interest of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 136,995 lots, a decrease of 3,402 lots; the open interest of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 68,949 lots, a decrease of 224 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 30,818 lots, an increase of 2,953 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber are - 10,386 lots, an increase of 563 lots. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 116,210 tons, a decrease of 2,010 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber are 50,703 tons, a decrease of 505 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,968 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.91 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 55.66 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.11 Thai baht/kg. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 56.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.4 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 130.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 43.8 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 23.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.46%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.2 days, an increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.05 days, an increase of 0.23 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.23%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.38%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.28%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.27%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared to September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared to 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded warehouse inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [2].