1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall inventory accumulation of spot goods at Qingdao Port recently exceeded expectations, with bonded warehouses maintaining destocking and general trade warehouses experiencing significant inventory accumulation. The arrival of mixed rubber at ports increased significantly, while the procurement of some downstream enterprises remained at a normal low level, leading to an unexpected increase in inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses [2]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated last week, and the production scheduling of enterprises gradually returned to the normal level. Some enterprises moderately increased production to meet order requirements, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short - term, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises is expected to be basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises is expected to run steadily, and the resumption of work of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to a certain extent [2]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,150 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 840 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,010 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 7 - 8 spread was 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,940 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 156,387 lots, up 1,032 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 53,705 lots, up 36,447 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 15,261 lots, up 7,026 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,215 lots, up 251 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 192,680 tons, down 160 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 31,852 tons, down 404 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 13,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,700 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,700 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,780 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 150 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 120 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,152 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 142 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 68.75 Thai baht/kg, up 0.95 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 63.77 Thai baht/kg, down 0.92 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 57.75 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 48.05 Thai baht/kg, down 0.25 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 145.6 US dollars/ton, up 12.8 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 11.4 US dollars/ton, down 50.4 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.48%, up 4.24 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.29%, up 0.31 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 41.89 days, up 0.15 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.42 days, up 1.14 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.97%, up 0.46 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.83%, up 0.18 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.47%, up 0.34 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.47%, up 0.36 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of the future (from June 22 to June 28, 2025), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Myanmar and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a medium - low level, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. In the southern part of the equator, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was at a low level, which reduced the impact on rubber tapping [2]. - As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 617,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons, an increase of 1.70%. The bonded area inventory was 81,200 tons, a decrease of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 536,100 tons, an increase of 2.51%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.43 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.52 percentage points [2]. - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points [2].