25 June 2025 | 10:06PM HKT InnoCare Pharma (9969.HK): China Healthcare Corporate Day 2025 — Key Takeaways: Target one major BD deal in 2H25 Presenters: Bonnie Yuan - Investor Relations Director Honglin Yan +852-2978-6666 | honglin.yan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 Goldman Sachs InnoCare Pharma (9969.HK) Bottom line: management noted on-track commercial progress in 2Q and guided one major BD deal in 2H25. We expect potential licensing-out opportunities to come from two T ...

Maintain BUY. We see InnoCare's significant out-licensing potential across multiple assets, especially orelabrutinib and ICP-332. We maintain our DCF- derived TP unchanged at HK$11.95 (WACC: 10.73%, terminal growth rate: 2.0%). InnoCare delivered solid 1Q25 results, with revenue reaching RMB381mn. Sales of orelabrutinib rose 89% YoY and 1% QoQ to RMB311mn, primarily supported by sustained uptake in MZL. Notably, orelabrutinib remains the only BTK inhibitor approved and included in the NRDL for MZL in China- ...

Core Viewpoint - InnoCare Pharma reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with significant revenue growth and a shift to profitability, driven by the sales ramp-up of its key product, orelabrutinib [1][5]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached Rmb381 million, representing a 130% year-over-year increase, while net profit was Rmb18 million, a turnaround from net losses of Rmb142 million in Q1 2024 [1]. - Sales of orelabrutinib amounted to Rmb311 million, reflecting an 89% year-over-year growth [1]. - R&D expenses were Rmb208 million, up 17% year-over-year, and selling expenses reached Rmb114 million, increasing by 27% year-over-year, with the selling expense ratio decreasing by 24.1 percentage points to 30% [1]. - Gross profit margin improved by 5.2 percentage points to 90.5% due to enhanced production efficiency and contributions from business development revenue [1]. - As of March 2025, the company had a cash balance of approximately Rmb7.8 billion [1]. Product Development and Sales Outlook - The sales target for orelabrutinib has been raised from over 30% year-over-year to over 35% year-over-year for 2025, supported by the addition of three indications into the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) and recent NMPA approval for first-line CLL/SLL [1]. - Orelabrutinib is currently undergoing phase III trials for immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) in China, with a new drug application (NDA) expected in the first half of 2026, and phase IIb trials for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) with data readouts anticipated in Q4 2025 [1]. Other Product Developments - The Biologics License Application (BLA) for tafasitamab for relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (r/r DLBCL) was accepted by the NMPA, with approval expected in 2025 [2]. - ICP-248 (BCL-2) is in phase III trials in combination with orelabrutinib for first-line CLL/SLL, and has received breakthrough therapy designation (BTD) from the CDE for r/r mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) [2]. - The company is actively developing pipelines for autoimmune diseases, including phase III trials for atopic dermatitis (AD) and psoriasis, and has pre-clinical assets targeting IL-17 [3]. ADC Product Development - The company filed an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for its first antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) product, ICP-B794 (B7-H3 ADC), which has shown promising therapeutic effects and safety in preclinical studies [4]. Investment Outlook - The EPS forecast has been adjusted from -Rmb0.21 to -Rmb0.19 for 2025, from -Rmb0.06 to -Rmb0.05 for 2026, and a forecast of Rmb0.16 for 2027 [5]. - The target price has been raised from HK$10.0 to HK$11.8, indicating a 25% upside potential, and the company maintains a BUY rating [5].