Investment Rating - The investment rating for InnoCare Pharma (H share) is "Buy" with a 12-month target price of HK$12.72, indicating a downside potential of 7.6% from the current price of HK$13.76 [8][9]. Core Insights - InnoCare Pharma is on track for commercial progress, with management guiding for one major business development (BD) deal in the second half of 2025 [1][2]. - The company expects peak sales of over US$1 billion for orelabrutinib in China, driven by various indications including hematologic cancers, immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP), and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) [6][8]. - Upcoming data readouts over the next 12 months include phase 2b data for orelabrutinib on SLE and phase 3 data for ICP-488 on psoriasis [7]. Summary by Sections Business Development Focus - The management's priority for out-licensing will focus on immunology disease assets, particularly: 1. ICP-332, which has shown promising phase 2 data for atopic dermatitis and is also being studied for vitiligo and prurigo nodularis [2]. 2. ICP-488, with accelerated patient enrollment for phase 3 trials on psoriasis [2]. 3. Orelabrutinib, with global trials planned for primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) [2]. Commercialization Progress - The company reported that commercial execution in Q2 was on track, with a year-on-year growth expectation of over 35% for orelabrutinib [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for InnoCare Pharma indicate growth from Rmb1,009.4 million in 2024 to Rmb2,717.9 million by 2027, with EBITDA improving from a loss of Rmb547.3 million in 2024 to a profit of Rmb194.4 million in 2027 [9].

Core Insights - InnoCare reported solid 1Q25 results with revenue reaching RMB381 million, driven by a significant increase in orelabrutinib sales, which rose 89% YoY to RMB311 million [1] - The company expects orelabrutinib sales to be primarily supported by its uptake in marginal zone lymphoma (MZL), projected to account for approximately 50% of sales by year-end 2025 [1] - Management has raised the FY25 sales growth target for orelabrutinib from 30% to over 35% [1] Financial Performance - InnoCare's net income for 1Q25 was RMB14 million, bolstered by strong orelabrutinib sales and an upfront payment of US$8.75 million from out-licensing its CD3/CD20 asset [1] - The product gross margin improved to 88.4%, up from 86.2% in FY24, indicating enhanced manufacturing efficiency [1] - The SG&A ratio declined to 50%, down from 60% in FY24, reflecting better cost discipline [1] - As of 1Q25, InnoCare maintained a robust cash position of RMB7.8 billion, providing ample capital for R&D initiatives [1] Pipeline Development - InnoCare's autoimmune pipeline is viewed as a key growth driver, with orelabrutinib showing strong potential in multiple sclerosis (MS) [1] - Two Phase 3 trials for orelabrutinib in MS are advancing in the US, targeting primary progressive MS (PPMS) and secondary progressive MS (SPMS) [1] - In the oncology sector, InnoCare is progressing with mesutoclax (ICP-248) as a competitive Bcl-2 inhibitor, with a Phase 3 trial ongoing for first-line chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) [2] - Tafasitamab (CD19) is on track for approval in China for relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), enhancing the hematology portfolio [2] Strategic Outlook - InnoCare is targeting less crowded indications overseas, including first-line acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and BTK inhibitor-pretreated mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) [2] - The company is advancing its in-house antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) platform, with an IND for a B7-H3-targeting ADC submitted in April 2025 [2] - The significant out-licensing potential across multiple assets, particularly orelabrutinib and ICP-332, is highlighted as a strategic advantage [3]

Core Viewpoint - InnoCare Pharma reported strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with significant revenue growth and a shift to profitability, driven by the sales ramp-up of its key product, orelabrutinib [1][5]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached Rmb381 million, representing a 130% year-over-year increase, while net profit was Rmb18 million, a turnaround from net losses of Rmb142 million in Q1 2024 [1]. - Sales of orelabrutinib amounted to Rmb311 million, reflecting an 89% year-over-year growth [1]. - R&D expenses were Rmb208 million, up 17% year-over-year, and selling expenses reached Rmb114 million, increasing by 27% year-over-year, with the selling expense ratio decreasing by 24.1 percentage points to 30% [1]. - Gross profit margin improved by 5.2 percentage points to 90.5% due to enhanced production efficiency and contributions from business development revenue [1]. - As of March 2025, the company had a cash balance of approximately Rmb7.8 billion [1]. Product Development and Sales Outlook - The sales target for orelabrutinib has been raised from over 30% year-over-year to over 35% year-over-year for 2025, supported by the addition of three indications into the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) and recent NMPA approval for first-line CLL/SLL [1]. - Orelabrutinib is currently undergoing phase III trials for immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) in China, with a new drug application (NDA) expected in the first half of 2026, and phase IIb trials for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) with data readouts anticipated in Q4 2025 [1]. Other Product Developments - The Biologics License Application (BLA) for tafasitamab for relapsed/refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (r/r DLBCL) was accepted by the NMPA, with approval expected in 2025 [2]. - ICP-248 (BCL-2) is in phase III trials in combination with orelabrutinib for first-line CLL/SLL, and has received breakthrough therapy designation (BTD) from the CDE for r/r mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) [2]. - The company is actively developing pipelines for autoimmune diseases, including phase III trials for atopic dermatitis (AD) and psoriasis, and has pre-clinical assets targeting IL-17 [3]. ADC Product Development - The company filed an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for its first antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) product, ICP-B794 (B7-H3 ADC), which has shown promising therapeutic effects and safety in preclinical studies [4]. Investment Outlook - The EPS forecast has been adjusted from -Rmb0.21 to -Rmb0.19 for 2025, from -Rmb0.06 to -Rmb0.05 for 2026, and a forecast of Rmb0.16 for 2027 [5]. - The target price has been raised from HK$10.0 to HK$11.8, indicating a 25% upside potential, and the company maintains a BUY rating [5].