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长城证券:太空光伏迎来“放量+降本”新机遇 行业迎来市场扩容与格局重塑机会
智通财经网· 2026-01-14 03:24
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the domestic commercial aerospace industry is entering a phase of collective effort, with a focus on advancing product performance and cost efficiency through the perovskite tandem route, which could provide significant advantages for future competitive positioning [1] - The strategic value of low Earth orbit resources is increasingly highlighted due to SpaceX's dominant position, prompting a shift in China's aerospace ecosystem towards collaboration between state-owned and commercial enterprises, moving from isolated efforts to full-chain cooperation [1] - Major projects like the National Grid Constellation and Qianfan Constellation are expected to accelerate, with plans to deploy over 200,000 satellites within a specified timeline, including launching the first satellite within 7 years and completing 10% deployment within 9 years [1] Group 2 - The demand for cost reduction in power systems is driven by the commercial ecosystem, where power systems account for approximately 22% of the total satellite platform cost, and solar cell arrays represent 60%-80% of that cost [2] - The high cost of gallium arsenide photovoltaic cells, ranging from $50 to $150 per watt, and the final processing costs for flexible solar wings can exceed one million RMB per square meter, making them significantly more expensive than silicon-based cells [2] - The transition to p-type heterojunction technology is advantageous due to its lower defect impact under high-energy particle radiation, with advanced p-type ultra-thin HJT cells achieving thicknesses of 50-70μm, which reduces launch payloads and maintains competitive cost levels [3] Group 3 - Perovskite solar cells are seen as a promising ultimate solution for space applications, as their limitations in water vapor and oxygen are naturally resolved in space, making them suitable for spacecraft with shorter lifespans of 5-7 years [4] - The cost of materials and equipment for perovskite has significantly decreased due to advancements in ground-level production, and their energy-to-weight ratio of 20-50W/g is superior to gallium arsenide and crystalline silicon [4] - Although further validation of perovskite technology is needed, its customizable design and ongoing optimization of materials and processes could enhance its development as a core solar power solution for both low Earth orbit and deep space applications [4]