The banking industry is entering a moment of transition. After several years of economic uncertainty, shifting consumer behavior, and rapid technological change, the industry is now adjusting to a new reality. As the new year approaches, experts are closely watching how banks evolve and what those changes could mean for everyday customers. Here’s what they predict for banking in 2026 — and how these shifts could impact the way you spend, save, and borrow. Read more: Your money in 2026: What to expect in ...

Core Insights - The fintech sector is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 16.2% from 2025 to 2032, as consumers increasingly shift from traditional banks to digital financial services [2][3] Robinhood - Robinhood has disrupted traditional brokerage models with commission-free trades and a user-friendly app, doubling its funded customers from 12.5 million in 2020 to 25.2 million in 2024 [5] - By Q3 2025, Robinhood's funded customers reached 26.8 million, with Gold subscribers increasing by 77% year-over-year to 3.9 million [6] - Analysts forecast Robinhood's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at CAGRs of 27% and 37% respectively from 2024 to 2027, driven by its expansion into a comprehensive fintech platform [7][8] Affirm - Affirm specializes in "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) services, allowing consumers to make purchases in installments without credit cards, which appeals to lower-income consumers and merchants seeking lower fees [9][10] - From fiscal 2021 to fiscal 2025, Affirm's active consumers grew from 7.1 million to 23 million, and its gross merchandise volume increased from $8.3 billion to $36.7 billion [10] - Analysts predict Affirm's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at CAGRs of 25% and 131% respectively from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, indicating strong growth potential [12][13]

Core Insights - The buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) market is experiencing significant growth, with 20% of consumers using BNPL loans in 2022, up from 17.6% in 2021, and the average number of loans per borrower increasing from 8.5 to 9.5 [1] - A concerning trend is emerging as 63% of BNPL borrowers have taken out multiple loans simultaneously, and 33% have loans from multiple lenders, indicating a lack of visibility into borrowers' total debt [2] - The borrower profile is alarming, with nearly two-thirds of BNPL users having lower credit scores, and 78% of subprime or deep subprime applicants being approved [8] Industry Trends - BNPL services have expanded to 91.5 million users in the U.S., with 25% using them for essential purchases like groceries, highlighting financial struggles among consumers [6][7] - Major financial institutions are increasingly adopting BNPL services, with PayPal processing $33 billion in BNPL spending in 2024, growing at 20% annually [23] - The BNPL market is becoming embedded in the financial infrastructure, with companies like Klarna and Affirm integrating their services into payment platforms like Apple Pay and Google Pay [22] Regulatory Environment - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has faced regulatory challenges, with the Biden administration initially seeking to regulate BNPL like credit cards, but the Trump administration reversed this stance [9][10] - New York has imposed licensing requirements on BNPL companies, but the lack of a cohesive regulatory framework allows companies to navigate around state regulations [13] Economic Implications - The current economic environment is precarious, with rising unemployment at 4.3% and the end of student loan forbearance potentially exacerbating financial stress among consumers [14][15] - The systemic risk of BNPL is not just limited to its own debt but extends to other consumer credit products, as borrowers may prioritize BNPL payments over larger debts [16] Future Outlook - The BNPL sector is moving into business-to-business lending, with the trade credit market representing a significant opportunity, potentially leading to increased debt accumulation [25][26] - The packaging and selling of BNPL debt, reminiscent of the subprime mortgage crisis, raises concerns about the transparency and risk exposure in the financial system [27][28] - The industry is at risk of creating two potential bubbles, with BNPL's impact on vulnerable populations being particularly concerning [29][30]

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) usage has exploded in recent years. The ease of use and economic headwinds are likely contributors to the growth. Since the introduction of BNPL services, there has been relatively minimal impact on credit scores. However, that’s changing, as FICO will begin to factor in BNPL usage, according to The Wall Street Journal. Check Out: The One Loan That’s Almost Guaranteed To Deliver Financial Disaster Learn More: 3 Reasons Retired Boomers Shouldn't Give Their Kids a Living Inheritance ...

Core Viewpoint - Affirm Holdings, Inc. has announced a significant expansion of its partnership with Worldpay, which is expected to enhance its buy now, pay later (BNPL) services and improve its market presence [1][2]. Partnership Expansion - The collaboration integrates Affirm's BNPL services into Worldpay's embedded payments suite for software platforms, allowing SaaS providers to offer Affirm at checkout [2][3]. - Worldpay for Platforms supports over 1,000 SaaS providers and processed more than $400 billion in transactions in the past year [3]. Consumer Benefits - The integration enables merchants to provide consumers with transparent, flexible payment options for purchases ranging from $35 to $30,000, targeting those seeking predictable, interest-free or low-interest payment schedules [3][4]. Executive Insights - Affirm's Chief Revenue Officer, Wayne Pommen, emphasized that the partnership simplifies the shopping process and expands Affirm's reach across various platforms and merchants [4]. - Worldpay's President, Matt Downs, highlighted Affirm's effectiveness in delivering results for businesses and enhancing consumer experiences, making it an ideal BNPL partner [5]. Market Performance - Affirm's stock (AFRM) has seen a significant increase of over 81% in the past year, with shares trading higher by 6.69% to $76.74 recently [6].

Group 1: Holiday Spending Trends - U.S. retail sales are projected to grow by 3.6% year over year according to Mastercard Economic Institute [1] - Deloitte data indicates a growth range of 2.9% to 3.4% year over year, despite a survey showing more consumers plan to reduce holiday spending compared to 2024 [1] Group 2: Consumer Financial Health Indicators - A significant warning sign for consumers is carrying a credit card balance, with the average APR on credit cards at 22.83% as of August [3] - Credit card issuers have increased average APRs beyond changes in the prime rate, and a cut in credit limits can negatively impact credit scores [3] Group 3: Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) Usage - BNPL services are gaining popularity, with a recent survey showing that 41% of BNPL borrowers made at least one late payment in the past year, an increase from 34% [5] - A concerning statistic is that 58% of BNPL users indicated these loans are the only way they can afford certain purchases, rising to 72% for those earning less than $50,000 [6]

Core Insights - Klarna is a leading financial technology company specializing in flexible digital payment solutions and "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) services, serving over 100 million consumers and hundreds of thousands of merchants globally [1][4] - The company went public on the NYSE in September, raising $1.37 billion at a valuation exceeding $17 billion, although KLAR stock is currently down 9% post-IPO [3] - Klarna reported Q2 2025 revenue of $823 million, a 20% year-over-year increase, but narrowly missed analyst expectations of $840 million [4] Financial Performance - Earnings per share for Q2 stood at $0.14, with a net loss of $53 million, which is an improvement compared to Q2 2024 but below the anticipated breakeven [4] - The company achieved its fifth consecutive quarter of operational profitability, posting an adjusted operating profit of $29 million [4] - Free cash flow for Q2 reached $787 million, attributed to capital recycling from major asset sales and a resilient funding model [5] Market Position and Growth - Klarna now serves 111 million active consumers and 790,000 merchant partners globally, with gross merchandise volume rising 19% year-over-year [5] - The growth was driven by strong performance in the U.S. market and robust collaborations with major merchants like Stripe, Walmart, and eBay [5] - Looking ahead, Klarna forecasts Q3 revenue between $870 million and $920 million, with expectations for continued operational profits and growth in U.S. lending and merchant network expansion [6]

Core Viewpoint - Jim Cramer recommends selling Chime (CHYM) stock and buying Affirm Holdings (AFRM) stock, highlighting the contrasting performance and outlook of both companies in the fintech sector [1][4]. Company Analysis Chime - Chime is a neobank that went public in June via an IPO, initially experiencing hype and early gains before a 15% decline from its $27 IPO price [4]. - The company is not consistently profitable, which is a concern as investors increasingly demand profitability and margin expansion in the fintech space [4]. Affirm Holdings - Affirm reported an "exceptionally strong" quarter, achieving new highs in growth and profitability despite the fourth quarter not being its seasonal peak [5]. - The company experienced a 43% year-over-year increase in gross merchandise volume (GMV) to $10.4 billion and a 33% increase in total revenue to $876 million [6]. - Active consumers reached 23 million, up 24% year-over-year, and Affirm reported a net profit of $69 million in Q4, a significant turnaround from a net loss of $45 million in the prior-year quarter [6]. - For the full fiscal 2025, total revenue rose 38.7% to $3.2 billion, with a net income of $52.2 million [6]. - Affirm's repayment performance remains strong, with 95% of transactions involving repeat borrowers, indicating customer loyalty [7]. - The company is expanding into the UK market, which may enhance its growth trajectory [7].

Group 1: Company Overview - Klarna shares surged 30% upon debut on the New York Stock Exchange, opening at $52 after pricing at $40, raising $1.38 billion and achieving a valuation of $15 billion [1][5] - Founded in 2005, Klarna has become a leading player in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) sector, with Walmart recently agreeing to make Klarna its sole BNPL provider [5] - Klarna launched in the U.S. in 2019, making it the company's largest customer market [2] Group 2: IPO Context and Market Trends - Klarna's IPO marks the beginning of a new season of significant IPOs on Wall Street, with other firms like Figure Technology and Gemini also planning market debuts [3] - The $15 billion valuation reflects a conservative approach to initial pricing, aimed at generating investor demand [5] - The IPO is viewed as a critical test for Klarna's vision of transitioning into a digital bank, amidst a backdrop of political uncertainty and market volatility [6] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Future Implications - A strong aftermarket performance could encourage other fintech companies to pursue public offerings, although there is a risk of a flood of less favorable deals following successful ones [7] - Some long-term investors, including Sequoia Capital, are expected to cash in on their investments, while CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski retained his shares, likening the IPO to a wedding [7][8]

Core Insights - Klarna has shown significant revenue growth with a CAGR of almost 14% over the past three years, reporting revenues of $2.8 billion in 2024, up from $1.9 billion in 2022 and $2.3 billion in 2023, while turning losses into profits with an EPS of $0.01 in 2024 from a loss of $3.09 per share in 2022 [1][2] Company Overview - Founded in 2005 and rebranded in 2010, Klarna is a Swedish fintech company specializing in "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) services and digital financial tools, offering flexible installment payment options for both online and in-store shoppers [3] - Klarna has ambitions to challenge traditional banks, with CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski criticizing banks for their long-standing profits under misguided regulations [2] Financial Metrics - Klarna's Gross Merchandise Volume reached $105.01 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14%, with active customer count increasing to 93 million in 2024 from 79 million in 2022, and average revenue per active customer rising to $30 from $24 in 2022 [5] - The company reported operating cash flow of $587 million in 2024, an increase from $336 million in 2022, although lower than $808 million in 2023, with a cash and equivalents balance of $3.2 billion against short-term debt of $1.21 billion [6] Market Position and Strategy - Klarna holds a dominant 71.9% website share in the global BNPL market, with operations in over 26 countries and a partner network of nearly 675,000 global merchants, positioning itself as a formidable player in the growing BNPL space projected to reach $911.8 billion by 2030 [8] - The company has established itself as a default checkout option for many online retailers, enhancing customer acquisition for merchants with minimal setup costs [9][10] Banking Ambitions - Klarna has expanded into retail banking in select markets, offering interest-bearing savings accounts and fixed-term deposit products, supported by a Swedish banking license obtained in 2017 [11][12] - Interest income climbed 17% in 2023 and a further 33% in 2024 to reach $675 million, benefiting from rising interest rates and low-cost deposit funding [12] Challenges and Regulatory Environment - Klarna's valuation has significantly declined from a peak of $45.6 billion in 2022 to a target of approximately $14 billion for its upcoming IPO, facing regulatory headwinds as authorities tighten oversight of BNPL operators [13] - The company has faced regulatory scrutiny in various markets, including a SEK 500 million fine in Sweden for compliance shortcomings [13] Conclusion - Klarna is a significant player in the BNPL market with strong growth metrics, but it faces challenges related to sustainable profitability, valuation decline, and regulatory risks, suggesting a need to focus on consistent profitable growth before further banking ventures [14]