Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) is one of the best restaurant stocks to buy now. Bernstein Reiterates ‘Outperform’ Rating on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Reduces PT from $50 to $40 Copyright: gdolgikh / 123RF Stock Photo On January 5, 2026, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) was revisited by Bernstein, with the firm reiterating its “Outperform” rating but reducing its price target from $50 to $40. This comes amid the firm’s cautious near-term view on U.S. restaurant traffic. The firm says ...

Group 1 - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) is set to release its fiscal Q4 2025 results on February 3, with the stock having declined over 14.5% since the last earnings release [1] - Wall Street analysts maintain a positive outlook on Chipotle, with a 12-month price target indicating a potential upside of more than 31.4% from the current stock level, driven by a favorable outlook for consumer stocks [2] - Bernstein analyst Alexia Howard noted that while consumer stocks have underperformed the broader market, the forward earnings valuation appears attractive, suggesting that investors may seek safety in the Consumer Staples sector amid tech sector volatility [2] Group 2 - Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated a Buy rating on Chipotle with a price target of $40, indicating confidence in the company's store potential despite recent stock performance challenges being deemed cyclical rather than structural [3] - The firm believes that Chipotle has untapped levers that can help grow customer traffic, reinforcing the company's growth potential [3] - Chipotle operates a chain of fast-casual restaurants specializing in customizable Mexican-inspired dishes, which are made with fresh ingredients [4]

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. has significantly underperformed the broader market, with stock prices dropping 47.6% year-to-date and 47.3% over the past 52 weeks, while the S&P 500 Index gained 12.3% in 2025 and 11% over the past year [2][4] - The company's Q3 results revealed a 7.5% year-over-year increase in topline revenue to $3 billion, which fell short of market expectations by 48 basis points, and an adjusted EPS of $0.29, which was a slight increase of 2 cents from the previous year [4][5] - Analysts maintain a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" for CMG stock, with a mean price target of $44.39, indicating a 40.3% premium to current price levels, and a street-high target of $70 suggesting a potential upside of 121.3% [6][7] Financial Performance - For the full fiscal year 2025, analysts project an adjusted EPS of $1.16, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.6% [5] - The company has a history of earnings surprises, having exceeded bottom-line estimates in each of the past four quarters [5] Analyst Ratings - Among 33 analysts covering CMG, there are 21 "Strong Buys," three "Moderate Buys," eight "Holds," and one "Strong Sell," indicating a slightly less optimistic outlook compared to the previous month [6][7] - JP Morgan analyst John Ivankoe has maintained a "Neutral" rating but lowered the price target from $44 to $40 [7]

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is set to announce its third-quarter results on October 29, with analysts expecting an EPS of $0.29, reflecting a 7.4% increase from the previous year [2] - For the full fiscal year 2025, earnings are projected to be $1.20 per share, up 7.1% from $1.12 in 2024, with a further expected surge of 18.3% to $1.42 per share in fiscal 2026 [3] - Despite a strong earnings surprise history, Chipotle's stock has underperformed, dropping 29.3% over the past 52 weeks compared to the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund's 20% increase and the S&P 500 Index's 17.4% gains [4] Financial Performance - In Q2, Chipotle's revenues increased by 3% year-over-year to $3.1 billion, but this was 1.2% below market expectations [5] - Comparable restaurant sales fell by 4% year-over-year, driven by a 4.9% decline in transactions, although this was partially offset by an increase in average check [6] - The restaurant-level operating margins contracted by 1.5% to 27.4%, and adjusted EPS decreased by 2.9% year-over-year to $0.33 [6] Analyst Sentiment - The consensus rating for Chipotle remains highly optimistic, with a "Strong Buy" rating from 22 out of 32 analysts, alongside three "Moderate Buys" and seven "Holds" [7] - The mean price target of $58.13 indicates a potential upside of 41.8% from current price levels [7]

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) is identified as a potential comeback candidate after experiencing a 30% decline in the last quarter, with Jim Cramer highlighting its resilience in the restaurant sector [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Chipotle has been significantly impacted like many restaurant chains, but it has a history of bouncing back when management addresses issues effectively [1] - The current financial performance of Chipotle is described as unimpressive, yet it is viewed as a strong candidate for recovery [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The restaurant industry is facing fundamental challenges, particularly related to the rising costs of beef, which is a major expense for Chipotle [2] - Despite expectations that cattle prices would decrease, they have remained high, affecting the cost structure of Chipotle's offerings [2] Group 3: Investment Considerations - While Chipotle shows potential as an investment, there are other AI stocks that may offer better upside potential and lower downside risk [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, total revenue was $119.2 million, up from $116.2 million in Q1 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 2.6% [21] - Company-operated restaurant revenue increased by 1.2% to $98.4 million from $97.2 million in the same period last year, driven by a 0.6% increase in comparable restaurant sales [21][22] - GAAP net income for Q1 2025 was $5.5 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, compared to $5.9 million, or $0.19 per diluted share in the prior year [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Franchise revenue increased by 16.2% to $13.2 million, driven by IT pass-through revenue related to the franchisee rollout of a new point of sale system [23] - The increase in franchise revenue was partially offset by a 1.3% decrease in comparable restaurant sales [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - System-wide comparable store sales decreased by 1.2% in Q2 to date through April 23, 2025, with a 0.1% decrease in company-operated restaurants and a 1.8% decrease in franchise restaurants [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a brand turnaround, emphasizing long-term sustainable growth without shortcuts [5] - Upcoming initiatives include a brand relaunch and menu innovations, such as the launch of Fresca wraps and salads, and quesadillas [6][9] - The company aims to open at least 10 new restaurants in 2025, marking the largest system-wide unit growth since 2022 [16][17] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged that the first quarter results were underwhelming but expressed confidence in the steps being taken to improve performance [6] - The company expects sequential quarterly acceleration in comparable sales trends in Q3 and Q4, driven by the brand relaunch and new product launches [24] - Management noted that the consumer pullback is real, but they are focused on what they can control, including reinforcing quality and value [35] Other Important Information - Food and paper costs as a percentage of company restaurant sales decreased by 120 basis points year-over-year to 25.2% due to higher menu pricing [24][25] - Labor and related expenses increased by 120 basis points year-over-year to 32.7%, with wage inflation of approximately 12% in Q1 2025 [25][26] - The company expects to remodel between 60 to 70 system-wide restaurants in 2025, with eight already completed [19][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for Q2 same store sales - Management indicated that headwinds are expected to continue in Q2, but they are focused on their brand relaunch and menu innovations to drive sales [34][35] Question: Impact of new product launches on comp trends - Management noted that the Mango Habanero product drove initial trial, and they are optimistic about the upcoming launches of Fresca wraps and quesadillas [38][40] Question: Regional differences in consumer behavior - Management observed that the consumer pullback is widespread, affecting various income bands, including the Hispanic consumer [51][52] Question: Menu pricing expectations for the year - Management expects menu pricing to be around 3% for the year, with approximately 2% in Q3 and Q4 [53] Question: Operational gaps identified through consumer feedback - Management is implementing a back-to-basics program to address operational gaps, focusing on accuracy and hospitality [70][72] Question: Kiosk rollout status and benefits - Kiosks are in most company restaurants, with plans to complete the rollout in the remaining locations, and management sees opportunities to enhance guest engagement through kiosks [73][74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, total revenue was $119.2 million, up from $116.2 million in Q1 2024, representing a 1.7% increase [19] - Company-operated restaurant revenue increased by 1.2% to $98.4 million, driven by a 0.6% increase in comparable restaurant sales and additional sales from two new restaurant openings [19] - The effective price increase was approximately 4.4% compared to 2024 [20] - GAAP net income for Q1 2025 was $5.5 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, compared to $5.9 million, or $0.19 per diluted share in the prior year [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Franchise revenue increased by 16.2% to $13.2 million, driven by IT pass-through revenue related to a new point of sale system and new franchise openings [20] - Comparable restaurant sales decreased by 1.3% for franchise-operated restaurants [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - System-wide comparable store sales decreased by 1.2% in Q2 to date, with a 0.1% decrease in company-operated restaurants and a 1.8% decrease in franchise restaurants [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a brand turnaround, emphasizing long-term sustainable growth without shortcuts [5] - Upcoming initiatives include a brand relaunch and menu innovations, such as the launch of Fresca wraps and salads, and quesadillas [6][8] - The company aims to open at least 10 new restaurants in 2025, marking the largest system-wide unit growth since 2022 [14][15] - Remodeling efforts are ongoing, with plans to remodel 60 to 70 restaurants in partnership with franchisees [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a challenging consumer environment but remains confident in the brand's long-term potential [6] - The company expects sequential quarterly acceleration in comparable sales trends in Q3 and Q4, driven by the brand relaunch and new product launches [22] - Wage inflation is anticipated to be between 4% to 5% for the year, with Q1 experiencing a 12% increase [23][24] Other Important Information - The company has transitioned to a new distribution partner, which is expected to enhance margins and support future growth [14] - The restaurant contribution margin for Q1 was 16%, down from 17.6% in the previous year, primarily due to labor inflation and occupancy costs [24][25] - General and administrative expenses decreased to 9.5% of total revenue, aided by prior year restructuring costs [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for Q2 same store sales - Management noted that consumer pullback is real and expects headwinds to continue into Q2, but is focused on brand relaunch and value innovation [32][33] Question: Impact of new product launches on comp trends - The Mango Habanero product drove initial trial, and upcoming launches of Fresca wraps and quesadillas are expected to attract different consumer segments [36][38] Question: Timing of kitchen equipment rollout and labor cost impact - Equipment rollout is ongoing, with expectations of improved labor efficiency as new systems are implemented [41] Question: Regional differences in consumer behavior - Management observed similar consumer pullback across markets, with particular pressure on the Hispanic consumer segment [50][51] Question: Menu pricing expectations for the year - The company expects menu price increases to be around 3% for the year, with variations across quarters [52] Question: Development pipeline momentum - Management expressed optimism about the development pipeline, with confidence in opening at least 10 new units this year and potential for more in the following year [59][60]

Core Viewpoint - Chipotle Mexican Grill is viewed as a high-potential investment opportunity, particularly following an upgrade from an analyst at Morgan Stanley, who believes the stock is primed for growth in the near future [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst Upgrade - Brian Harbour of Morgan Stanley upgraded Chipotle's shares from equal weight (hold) to overweight (buy) at the beginning of March [2]. - The price target for Chipotle's stock was raised from $65 to $70, indicating a potential share price increase of nearly 30% [2][3]. Group 2: Company Fundamentals - Harbour perceives Chipotle as a structurally sound company, despite recent sales weaknesses impacting its stock price [3]. - The analyst believes that the sales weakness is temporary and expects improvement after the second quarter of the year [4]. - Management is anticipated to enhance fundamentals through appealing products, effective marketing, and improved throughput [4]. Group 3: Automation and Efficiency - The company's adoption of automation is seen as a key driver for sales growth and profit margin improvement through cost savings [4]. - Chipotle's enduring popularity is evidenced by high customer traffic, even in less prominent locations, indicating strong demand for its offerings [5]. - As of the end of 2024, Chipotle operates 3,725 restaurants, showcasing its extensive market presence and investment potential [5].