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Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Steel - **Region**: North America - **Current Market View**: Prices are expected to remain relatively muted over the next six months due to soft demand, despite an anticipated fall in imports [1][2] Key Points Demand Dynamics - **Soft Demand**: Steel demand has been subdued since April 2024, with expectations of a muted six months before any significant improvement [3][4] - **Bifurcated Market**: Industrial sectors like heavy equipment, energy, and infrastructure are performing relatively well, while consumer-oriented segments are sluggish [3][4] - **Strong Segments**: Oilfield and OCTG steel volumes are strong, and solar and wind markets are benefiting from residual IRA-driven spending, although long-term visibility is limited [3][4] - **Weak Segments**: Truck and trailer demand has collapsed post-COVID, with recovery not expected until 2029. Consumer goods like garden equipment remain pressured by high interest rates and reduced discretionary spending [3][4] Import and Tariff Impact - **Declining Imports**: Import flows are expected to decline sharply due to a 50% tariff, which eliminates nearly all profit margins for foreign suppliers [4][7] - **Economic Incentive**: An Asian producer selling at $500/t would incur $250/t in duties and $35/t in freight, leading to a landed cost of approximately $785/t, making domestic prices more attractive [4][7] - **Potential "Steel Island"**: A self-contained steel market could emerge if Mexico and Canada adopt similar tariffs without exceptions [4][7] Price Stability - **Current Price Levels**: Steel prices are expected to remain stable around $800/t, with transaction levels around $750/t [7][8] - **Limited Catalysts**: There are limited near-term catalysts to break current price levels, with healthy inventory levels and excess capacity limiting upside [7][8] - **Potential Upside**: Accelerated interest rate cuts or reduced trade escalation rhetoric with China could provide a bullish case [7][8] - **Downside Risks**: An unexpected relaxing of tariffs on Mexico and Canada could trigger downside risks, with base prices potentially around $600/t without the current tariffs [7][8] Company Insights - **Nucor**: Continues to hold its weekly listed HRC price stable at $875/t for eight consecutive weeks, focusing on vertical integration [8] - **Nippon's Strategy**: Ownership of U.S. Steel has led to a strategic shift towards integrated customer solutions rather than individual product sales [8] - **Cleveland-Cliffs**: Has been quicker to offer discounts to secure sales volumes and benefit from fixed-cost dilution [8] Additional Considerations - **Cautious Outlook**: The overall tone remains cautious with near-term stagnation expected until mid-2Q26 when inventories normalize and policy clarity improves [3][4] - **Bipartisan Support for Tariffs**: U.S. tariff policy on steel continues to receive bipartisan support, which is crucial for the industry's stability in the current demand environment [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in black metal prices are influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and industry chain interactions, with expectations of continued volatility in the short term [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Domestic growth stabilization is gaining traction, with a marginal recovery in the manufacturing PMI in June, leading to increased expectations for infrastructure investment and manufacturing equipment updates in the second half of the year [1] - In the U.S., May CPI data fell below expectations, raising interest rate cut expectations and causing a decline in the dollar index; however, significant policy divergence within the Federal Reserve and ongoing tariff concerns keep investors cautious [1] - Despite the Fed's liquidity release through potential rate cuts, corporate expansion intentions remain low, limiting actual demand growth [1] Supply Side Analysis - Raw material prices are stable, providing cost support; global iron ore supply is concentrated, with a tightening of high-grade ore at ports and high reliance on imports [1] - Coking coal prices are affected by domestic safety regulations, import country policies, and transportation issues, while coking enterprises are limiting production to maintain prices, reducing supply elasticity [1] Demand Side Analysis - Weakness in the real estate sector has significantly reduced demand for construction steel, although affordable housing projects provide some buffer [1] - Infrastructure project construction supports demand for rebar and other steel products, but is constrained by funding and seasonal factors [1] - Industrial manufacturing shows resilience in high-end steel demand, but global slowdown and trade tensions lead to order fluctuations, limiting substantial demand growth [1] Industry Chain Dynamics - The industry chain is tightly interconnected, with upstream raw material price fluctuations squeezing steel enterprise profits [1] - Midstream steel production is constrained by both cost and demand factors, leading to intensified homogeneous competition [1] - Downstream construction and manufacturing sectors are sensitive to steel prices, with cautious procurement leading to inventory accumulation risks; real estate debt risks are transmitted upstream, exacerbating industry chain instability [1] Conclusion - In summary, black metal prices are likely to remain volatile in the short term due to stable supply but high inventory levels, weak construction demand, limited industrial resilience, and the need for effective macroeconomic policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Steel stocks are gaining attention following President Trump's announcement of 50% tariffs on imported steel, with Nucor Corp identified as a top pick by JPMorgan, suggesting a potential 67% upside [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - Nucor is well-positioned to benefit from the recent tariffs due to its product diversification and lower exposure to underperforming value-add sheet products [2]. - Nucor's focus on plate and rebar, which are performing better, could lead to incremental upside as these prices hold strong [2]. - Nucor's utilization rate was 80% in the first quarter, which is lower than Steel Dynamics' 89% but significantly higher than U.S. Steel Corp's 65% in the Flat-Rolled division, indicating potential for improvement [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Despite a 10% increase in Nucor's stock since the tariff announcement, investors remain cautious due to potential tariff exemptions for USMCA partners Canada and Mexico [3]. - JPMorgan does not anticipate a summer rally for steel prices but sees a firm price floor due to easing scrap costs and rising mill utilization [4]. - The steel market is characterized by a dichotomy of near-term caution and long-term potential, with Nucor favored in the long run if tariffs remain in place and restocking occurs later this year [5][6].