Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in black metal prices are influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and industry chain interactions, with expectations of continued volatility in the short term [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Domestic growth stabilization is gaining traction, with a marginal recovery in the manufacturing PMI in June, leading to increased expectations for infrastructure investment and manufacturing equipment updates in the second half of the year [1] - In the U.S., May CPI data fell below expectations, raising interest rate cut expectations and causing a decline in the dollar index; however, significant policy divergence within the Federal Reserve and ongoing tariff concerns keep investors cautious [1] - Despite the Fed's liquidity release through potential rate cuts, corporate expansion intentions remain low, limiting actual demand growth [1] Supply Side Analysis - Raw material prices are stable, providing cost support; global iron ore supply is concentrated, with a tightening of high-grade ore at ports and high reliance on imports [1] - Coking coal prices are affected by domestic safety regulations, import country policies, and transportation issues, while coking enterprises are limiting production to maintain prices, reducing supply elasticity [1] Demand Side Analysis - Weakness in the real estate sector has significantly reduced demand for construction steel, although affordable housing projects provide some buffer [1] - Infrastructure project construction supports demand for rebar and other steel products, but is constrained by funding and seasonal factors [1] - Industrial manufacturing shows resilience in high-end steel demand, but global slowdown and trade tensions lead to order fluctuations, limiting substantial demand growth [1] Industry Chain Dynamics - The industry chain is tightly interconnected, with upstream raw material price fluctuations squeezing steel enterprise profits [1] - Midstream steel production is constrained by both cost and demand factors, leading to intensified homogeneous competition [1] - Downstream construction and manufacturing sectors are sensitive to steel prices, with cautious procurement leading to inventory accumulation risks; real estate debt risks are transmitted upstream, exacerbating industry chain instability [1] Conclusion - In summary, black metal prices are likely to remain volatile in the short term due to stable supply but high inventory levels, weak construction demand, limited industrial resilience, and the need for effective macroeconomic policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Steel stocks are gaining attention following President Trump's announcement of 50% tariffs on imported steel, with Nucor Corp identified as a top pick by JPMorgan, suggesting a potential 67% upside [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - Nucor is well-positioned to benefit from the recent tariffs due to its product diversification and lower exposure to underperforming value-add sheet products [2]. - Nucor's focus on plate and rebar, which are performing better, could lead to incremental upside as these prices hold strong [2]. - Nucor's utilization rate was 80% in the first quarter, which is lower than Steel Dynamics' 89% but significantly higher than U.S. Steel Corp's 65% in the Flat-Rolled division, indicating potential for improvement [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Despite a 10% increase in Nucor's stock since the tariff announcement, investors remain cautious due to potential tariff exemptions for USMCA partners Canada and Mexico [3]. - JPMorgan does not anticipate a summer rally for steel prices but sees a firm price floor due to easing scrap costs and rising mill utilization [4]. - The steel market is characterized by a dichotomy of near-term caution and long-term potential, with Nucor favored in the long run if tariffs remain in place and restocking occurs later this year [5][6].