Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto and Chalco have entered into a joint venture to acquire Votorantim's controlling stake in Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA), enhancing their low-carbon aluminium footprint in Brazil through a cash transaction valued at approximately $902.6 million [1]. Transaction Details - The joint venture will be owned 33% by Rio Tinto and 67% by Chalco, acquiring Votorantim's 68.596% shareholding in CBA at R$10.50 per share, representing a 21.2% premium over the weighted average trading price of R$8.67 for the 20 trading days prior to the agreement [1]. - Following the transaction, the joint venture will launch a mandatory tender offer for the remaining shares in CBA not held by Votorantim, as required by Brazilian law [1]. Strategic Implications - The acquisition aligns with Rio Tinto's strategy to expand its low-carbon, renewable-powered aluminium operations in rapidly growing markets, leveraging both companies' expertise across the aluminium value chain [1]. - CBA operates as a vertically integrated low-carbon aluminium business in Brazil, supported by a 1.6 GW portfolio of renewable power generation assets, including hydropower and wind power [1]. Operational Highlights - CBA has three bauxite mines with a production capacity of approximately 2 million tonnes per annum, and an aluminium complex in São Paulo with a capacity of 0.8 million tonnes for alumina and 0.4 million tonnes for aluminium smelting [1]. - The partnership aims to enhance operational excellence and innovation, creating value for shareholders, employees, customers, and local communities [1].

Company Overview - Jain Resource Recycling is engaged in recycling and manufacturing non-ferrous metals such as lead, copper, and aluminium [7] - The company operates three recycling facilities near Chennai and has a gold refining unit in the UAE through a subsidiary [7] - Its customer base includes large domestic and global names such as Vedanta, Luminous Power, Mitsubishi Corporation, and Nissan Trading [7] - Jain Resource Recycling has built a footprint beyond India with exports to markets like Singapore, China, Japan, and South Korea within three years of operations [7] IPO Details - The Initial Public Offering (IPO) was launched on September 24, 2025, with a total size of Rs 1,250 crore, consisting of a fresh issue of Rs 500 crore and an offer for sale worth Rs 750 crore [2] - The IPO was listed on October 1, 2025, at a 14% premium, priced at Rs 265 over the IPO price [2] - The IPO received a strong response, being subscribed 16.8 times overall, with institutional buyers subscribing nearly 27 times their reserved portion, non-institutional investors at 5.6 times, and retail investors at 3.8 times [3] Share Performance - The stock reached a high of Rs 461 on the NSE, rallying 98% over the issue price within a month and a half, although it has since corrected 12% from its high, still trading 77% above the issue price of Rs 232 per share [1][6] - Following the expiry of the three-month IPO anchor lock-in, an additional 12 million shares became eligible for trading, accounting for about 4% of the company's total outstanding equity [1][6] Investor Insights - Ashish Kacholia holds a stake of 1.14%, representing 39,16,875 equity shares, valued at Rs 160.4 crore according to Trendlyne data [6][7] - The company raised Rs 562.5 crore from anchor investors ahead of the IPO, which contributed to investor confidence [3]

Legal Dispute - A Russian court has ruled in favor of Rusal in a lawsuit against Rio Tinto, amounting to 104.75 billion roubles ($1.32 billion) [1] - The lawsuit pertains to a joint alumina refinery in Queensland, Australia, which Rio Tinto took sole control of following sanctions imposed on Russia [1][3] Background of the Lawsuit - Rusal filed the lawsuit after losing a case in Australia in 2024 regarding its 20% stake in the Queensland Alumina Ltd (QAL) plant [3] - The Australian government imposed sweeping sanctions in response to Russia's military actions in Ukraine, including a ban on aluminium raw material exports to Russia [3] Control of the Refinery - Following the sanctions, Rio Tinto took full control of QAL, owning 80% of the refinery, which limited Rusal's access to its output [4] - Rio Tinto has no assets in Russia, but the lawsuit includes its subsidiaries that own 66% of the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold deposit in Mongolia [4] Rusal's Supply Strategy - Due to the alumina export ban and operational suspensions in Ukraine, Rusal sought additional supplies from China and other countries to support its Siberian aluminium smelters [5] - Rusal plans to acquire up to a 50% stake in an alumina plant in India by 2025 and is also planning to build a new 4.8-million-ton alumina plant in Russia's Leningrad region by 2028 [5] Recent Acquisitions - In 2023, Rusal acquired a 30% stake in a Chinese alumina refinery to ensure feedstock for its operations in Russia, Ireland, Jamaica, and Guinea [6]

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Aluminium Sector Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Aluminium Sector** and its supply-demand dynamics, highlighting the constrained supply and rising prices due to tight fundamentals [2][4][9]. Key Points Supply Constraints - China's aluminium industry capacity is capped at **45.2 million tonnes per annum (mtpa)**, currently operating at over **98% utilization** [3][9]. - Planned capacity additions for 2026 include **200,000 tonnes per annum (ktpa)** from Tianshan and **350 ktpa** from Zhalv, with no new capacity expected for 2027 [3][9]. - Ex-China, new capacity is anticipated mainly from Indonesia, contributing **400 kt** and **200 kt** YoY in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][9]. Demand Growth - UBS forecasts global primary aluminium demand growth of **4%** for both 2026 and 2027, while supply growth is expected to be only **1-2%**, potentially leading to market deficits [4][9]. Price Forecasts - Aluminium price forecasts for China have been raised by **5%** for 2026 and **7%** for 2027, now projected at **Rmb22,000/t** and **Rmb23,000/t**, respectively [2][16]. - The global aluminium price is also expected to rise, with UBS increasing its LME aluminium price forecasts by approximately **15%** [2][16]. Earnings Revisions - Net profit estimates for major companies in the sector have been revised upwards: - **Hongqiao**: +11% for 2026E, +16% for 2027E - **Chalco**: +14% for 2026E, +22% for 2027E - **Tianshan**: +12% for 2026E, +26% for 2027E [5][17][18][19]. Price Target Adjustments - Price targets (PT) for key companies have been adjusted significantly: - **Hongqiao**: Raised from **HK$28.0** to **HK$38.60** (implying a **10x** 2026E PE) [5][17]. - **Chalco-H**: Increased from **HK$8.60** to **HK$13.10** [5][18]. - **Chalco-A**: Upgraded from **HK$8.30** to **HK$12.40** [5][18]. - **Tianshan**: Increased from **Rmb12.60** to **Rmb17.00** [5][19]. Investment Ratings - The report reiterates **Buy** ratings on **Hongqiao**, **Tianshan**, and **Chalco-H**, while upgrading **Chalco-A** to **Buy** from Neutral [5][18][19]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of corporate governance improvements and stable earnings delivery for Chalco, which supports the upgraded ratings [18]. - The aluminium market is expected to remain tight, with potential drawdowns in visible inventory supporting price increases [4][9]. Conclusion - The outlook for China's aluminium sector remains positive, driven by constrained supply, rising demand, and improved earnings forecasts for key players, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Trade & Tariffs - Donald Trump 对美国铝、铜和钢铁进口征收的关税创造了巨大的套利机会 [1] - 金属交易商正忙于利用这些套利机会 [1]

Group 1 - Rio Tinto is a significant player in the global mining industry, with a diverse portfolio that includes iron, copper, aluminium, and lithium, contributing to a strong balance sheet [1] - The company's focus on these key minerals positions it well for long-term growth and stability in the market [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific financial data or performance metrics for Rio Tinto, focusing instead on the company's strategic positioning within the mining sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) H/A shares, with target prices adjusted to HKD6.10 for H-shares and RMB9.80 for A-shares, implying upside potentials of approximately 42% and 48% respectively [5][40]. Core Insights - Chalco reported a net profit after tax (NPAT) of approximately RMB3.5 billion in 1Q25, reflecting a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 59% year-on-year increase, attributed to better-than-expected sales volume and average selling prices (ASP) for aluminum and alumina [1][9]. - The company expects capital expenditures of RMB14.8 billion in 2025, focusing on wind power projects and new alumina production sites, while aiming to increase green power usage from 47% in 2024 to 55% in 2025 [2][9]. - Despite solid fundamentals for aluminum, earnings are expected to decline by approximately 12% in 2025 due to lower alumina prices, with the alumina price already below breakeven levels [3][9]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, Chalco's sales volumes for self-produced aluminum decreased by 5% quarter-on-quarter, while alumina sales increased by 6% quarter-on-quarter. However, revenue and gross profits fell by 12% and 29% quarter-on-quarter respectively due to a significant drop in alumina prices [1][31]. - The company recorded a decrease in selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses by 6% year-on-year and 66% quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective cost control [1][31]. - Investment income rose by RMB0.37 billion in 1Q25, driven by higher alumina prices year-on-year and gains from hedging [36]. Production and Operational Strategy - Chalco's aluminum production operating rate reached 95% in China, supported by demand from electric vehicles, batteries, and solar products [3][9]. - The company plans to relocate alumina production from inland to coastal provinces to reduce transportation costs and expects to close down 1-2 million tons of alumina production in 2025 [2][34]. - Chalco aims to optimize its alumina capacity of 25 million tons by utilizing lower-cost imported bauxite, which may lead to some impairment losses [34]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates steady aluminum prices in 2025, supported by robust demand from the "New Three" sectors, while alumina prices are expected to have limited downside due to their current low levels [3][9]. - The coal price and electricity costs remained weak in 1Q25, which may benefit Chalco's operational costs [3][9].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Asia Materials, specifically copper and aluminium sectors - **Market Sentiment**: Easing of recession fears and a recent rally in shares of copper and aluminium companies, with declines of 11% and 10% respectively over the past five trading days, compared to -2% for the cement sector and -8% for HSCEI [1][5] Core Insights - **Recession Concerns**: Global recession fears appear overblown, especially after the US President's decision to pause reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, suggesting a potential rebound in commodity prices and share prices for copper and aluminium [1][5] - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: Positive supply-demand dynamics expected to support a rebound in commodity prices, with month-on-month improvements in operating rates for copper and aluminium in March due to seasonal demand recovery [1][5] - **Government Stimulus**: New government stimulus in energy transition, consumption, or the property sector could further support demand growth for industrial metals [1][5] Company-Specific Insights - **MMG Limited**: Upgraded from Hold to Buy due to high earnings sensitivity to copper price movements. Expected year-on-year earnings growth in 2025 driven by the ramp-up of Chalcobamba [2][5] - **Zijin Mining**: Maintained Buy ratings for both H/A shares, with a target price of HKD21.00 for H-shares and RMB21.90 for A-shares, reflecting stable output growth and M&A efforts [2][29] - **CMOC**: Maintained Buy ratings with target prices unchanged at HKD7.60 for H-shares and RMB8.60 for A-shares, supported by strong fundamentals [2][29] - **Jiangxi Copper**: Maintained Reduce rating due to ongoing headwinds from lower TC/RC prices, with target prices of HKD10.10 for H-shares and RMB17.30 for A-shares [2][30] - **China Hongqiao**: Maintained Buy rating with a target price of HKD17.10, supported by strong fundamentals and an attractive dividend yield of approximately 10% [2][30] Additional Important Points - **Copper Supply Constraints**: Mine supply remains constrained, indicated by negative spot TC/RC prices. China's tariffs on the US are expected to reduce scrap copper imports, impacting refined copper production [1][5] - **Aluminium Operating Capacity**: Operating capacity for aluminium is nearing the 45 million tonnes cap, indicating potential shortages if demand increases due to new stimulus [1][5] - **Market Data**: Key market data and forecasts for copper and aluminium prices, sales, and production metrics were provided, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6][31][33] Risks and Valuation - **Valuation Risks**: Risks include geopolitical conflicts, production delays, and fluctuations in metal prices. For Zijin Mining, downside risks include delays in new capacities and higher production costs due to inflation [29][30] - **Earnings Forecasts**: MMG is expected to deliver significant earnings growth, while Jiangxi Copper faces a decline in earnings due to lower contract TC/RC prices [31][32][30] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the copper and aluminium sectors within the Asia Materials industry.