Core Viewpoint - Intel's market cap is at risk of being surpassed by Dell and Workday due to Intel's declining performance and growth prospects [6][10][14] Intel - Intel's stock price has significantly dropped from its peak of $74.88 in 2000 to about $21 today, resulting in a market cap of $94.5 billion [2] - The company has experienced a net income decline for six consecutive years, paused buybacks for four years, and suspended its dividend at the end of 2024 [2][4] - Intel has fallen behind competitors like TSMC and AMD in chip manufacturing and has struggled to enter the mobile and AI markets [4] - Analysts project Intel's revenue will grow at a CAGR of only 2% from 2024 to 2027, with profitability expected to return by 2027, but the stock remains expensive at 23 times its projected earnings [5] Dell Technologies - Dell is a major player in the PC and server markets, generating 51% of its revenue from client solutions and 46% from infrastructure solutions [7] - The infrastructure segment is expected to benefit from the growth of the AI market, with Dell anticipating at least $15 billion in revenue from AI servers by fiscal 2026 [8] - Dell's market cap is currently $79.7 billion, with projected revenue and EPS growth rates of 6% and 15% respectively from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028 [9] - If Dell meets analysts' expectations, its stock could rise nearly 30% to $147 per share, potentially increasing its market cap to about $102 billion by 2027 [10] Workday - Workday has expanded from finance and HR services to include human capital management tools, achieving a CAGR of 27% in revenue from fiscal 2015 to fiscal 2025 [11] - The company serves over 11,000 customers, including 60% of the Fortune 500, and is well-positioned to navigate economic fluctuations [12] - Analysts expect Workday's revenue and EPS to grow at a CAGR of 13% and 41% respectively from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028 [13] - If Workday meets expectations, its stock price could increase by 85% to $506 per share, raising its market cap from $73 billion to $135 billion by 2027 [14]

Core Insights - Intel's first-quarter earnings report showed flat revenue year over year at $12.7 billion, exceeding analysts' estimates by $390 million, but adjusted EPS fell 28% to $0.13, despite beating consensus forecasts by $0.13 [1][2] - For the second quarter, Intel expects revenue to decline between 3% to 13% year over year, with an adjusted EPS of zero, missing the consensus forecast of $0.07 [2][4] - Intel's market share in the x86 CPU market has significantly declined from 82.5% in Q3 2016 to 58.2% in Q2 2025, while AMD's share increased from 17.5% to 40.3% during the same period [4][5] Company Performance - Intel's annual revenue decreased from $55.87 billion in 2014 to $54.23 billion in 2024, while its stock price fell 34% over the past decade, contrasting with the S&P 500's 160% increase [7] - AMD's stock surged 3,950% during the same period, driven by strategic leadership and engineering improvements [7] Strategic Direction - New CEO Lip-Bu Tan plans to enhance engineering capabilities, develop CPUs with integrated AI features, and expand the foundry business, dismissing rumors of selling its foundries or becoming a fabless chipmaker [8][9] - Intel aims to streamline operations and divest noncore assets, including the programmable chipmaker Altera, while ramping up its 18A process node for the Panther Lake CPU launch in late 2025 [9][10] Challenges Ahead - Intel's near-term outlook remains bleak, with expectations that new chips will not significantly boost revenue or profits [10] - The company plans to lay off around 20% of its staff to cut costs and is outsourcing some production to TSMC, raising concerns about its ability to recover [10][11] - Intel faces additional challenges from tariffs, export curbs, and competition from TSMC, complicating its recovery efforts against AMD [12] Competitive Landscape - Intel's losses in mobile, discrete GPU, and core CPU markets highlight deep-rooted issues, contrasting with AMD's consistent leadership under a single CEO [13] - Despite potential optimism from contrarian investors regarding Tan's leadership, there are currently no signs of recovery for Intel against AMD in the x86 CPU market [14]