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Summary of Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot (16 December 2024) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global oil industry, providing insights into supply forecasts, production capacities, and market dynamics. Key Points Global Supply Growth Forecasts - Global supply growth forecasts have been raised by 60 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) for 2024 and 110 kb/d for 2025, reaching 590 kb/d and 1.35 million barrels per day (Mb/d) respectively [3] - OPEC+ supply forecasts for 2025 have been cut by 40 kb/d, anticipating improved compliance and reflecting recent trends in Iranian output, offset by higher supply from non-OPEC+ sources (+180 kb/d) [3] - Non-OPEC+ is expected to be the primary driver of global supply growth, with forecasts of 1.42 Mb/d in 2024 and 1.33 Mb/d in 2025 [3] OPEC Production Insights - OPEC-12 holds 5.82 Mb/d of spare capacity, with Saudi Arabia accounting for 3.26 Mb/d (56% of total spare capacity) [10] - The UAE is expected to contribute to OPEC's production capacity growth, raising its capacity to over 5 Mb/d by 2026 [13] - Limited increases in OPEC production are expected through 2030, with Saudi Arabia's production capacity projected to remain around 12 Mb/d [13] Iranian and Venezuelan Production - Iranian output forecast has been slightly lowered by 50 kb/d to an average of 3.35 Mb/d in 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding production levels [15] - Venezuelan supply is forecasted to remain stable at 0.90 Mb/d in 2024 and 0.94 Mb/d in 2025 [15] - Libyan production is expected to be stable at 1.09 Mb/d in 2024 and 1.19 Mb/d in 2025, with recent comments indicating production may have increased to 1.4 Mb/d [15] Russian Production and Exports - Russian crude exports decreased by 1% month-over-month in November to 4.82 Mb/d, with a 3% increase in exports to India offset by a 7% decrease to China [18] US Production and Drilling Activity - US drilling activity showed slight month-over-month improvement, with new wells drilled and completed up by 8 and 2 respectively [23] - The US rig count has stabilized at around 480, which is 20% below the levels seen at the beginning of 2023 [46] Demand Projections - Demand for various oil products is projected to increase gradually, with LPG and ethane expected to rise from 14.4 Mb/d in 2023 to 15.4 Mb/d in 2025 [29] - Gasoline demand is projected to peak at 27.4 Mb/d in 2025 before declining to 25.0 Mb/d by 2030 [29] OECD Inventories - OECD commercial oil inventories are projected to fluctuate, with a notable increase in stocks observed in recent months [35][48] Additional Insights - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in production strategies among OPEC+ members and the impact of geopolitical factors on oil supply and demand dynamics. - The stability in US drilling activity suggests a cautious approach in response to market conditions, reflecting broader trends in the oil industry. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Global Oil: Monthly Agency Data Snapshot, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the oil industry.

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Property** market, specifically analyzing trends in unit sales across different tiers of cities in the Asia Pacific region [3][85]. Key Points Unit Sales Performance - **Weekly Secondary Unit Sales**: - Increased by **70% YoY** but decreased by **14.9% WoW** for the week ending December 15, 2024 [1][96]. - **Tier 1 cities** saw a **126% YoY** increase but a **1.9% WoW** decrease [1]. - **Tier 2 cities** experienced a **43% YoY** increase but a **23% WoW** decrease [1]. - **Shenzhen** had the strongest performance among Tier 1 cities with a **185% YoY** increase [1]. - **Weekly Primary Unit Sales**: - Increased by **28% YoY** and **9.8% WoW** [89]. Sell-Through Rates - The total sell-through rate was **61%**, unchanged from the previous week [96][97]. - In **Tier 1 cities**, the sell-through rate was **56%**, up from **50%** in the prior week [97]. - In **Tier 2 cities**, the sell-through rate dropped to **65%** from **75%** [97]. - **Chengdu** recorded the highest sell-through rate at **89%** [97]. Price Index - The **Centaline six-city secondary asking price tracking index** was **26.1%**, up from **25.3%** the previous week, with Chengdu having the highest index at **44.2%** [90]. Market Trends - The report indicates a mixed performance across different tiers of cities, with Tier 1 cities showing stronger resilience compared to Tier 2 cities [1][89]. - The overall market sentiment appears cautious, with fluctuations in both sales and pricing trends [89][90]. Additional Insights - The data reflects ongoing challenges in the property market, particularly in Tier 2 cities, which may indicate potential risks for investors [1][89]. - The strong performance in Shenzhen could present a unique investment opportunity within the Tier 1 city segment [1]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and trends from the conference call regarding the China Property market, highlighting both opportunities and risks for potential investors.

China Economic Comment China Weekly: Softer Exports and New Credit, CEWC Takeaways CEWC takeaways: bigger deficit, more rate cuts, greater support China concluded the much-awaited annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) on December 12th, outlining the government's main economic objectives and policy plans for 2025, which are largely in line with our CEWC preview and Politburo meeting. As usual, key growth and policy targets were not announced at CEWC but will Economics Figure 1: Net weekly issuance o ...

Key Points Industry or Company Involved * **Hyperscalers**: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), Oracle (ORCL) * **Software Companies**: Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), Intuit (INTU), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Google (GOOGL) * **AI Startups**: Adept, MosaicML, Together.AI, Cohere, xAI, Inflection, Anthropic, AI21 Labs, Stability AI, Mistral AI Core Views and Evidence * **AI is a significant growth driver for hyperscalers and software companies**: AI is expected to drive significant revenue growth for hyperscalers and software companies over the next few years. This is driven by increasing demand for AI applications across various industries and the ability of these companies to leverage their existing infrastructure and data to develop and deploy AI solutions. * **AI adoption is accelerating**: AI adoption is accelerating across various industries, with increasing interest in AI applications for productivity, customer service, and other use cases. This is supported by evidence of growing AI budgets and increasing adoption of AI tools and platforms. * **Cloud providers are key beneficiaries of AI growth**: Cloud providers are well-positioned to benefit from AI growth due to their existing infrastructure and data, as well as their ability to offer AI services and platforms to customers. * **AI infrastructure is a key barrier to AI adoption**: AI infrastructure, including computing power, data storage, and data management tools, is a key barrier to AI adoption for many organizations. This is particularly challenging for smaller companies with limited resources. * **AI is still in the early stages**: While AI is growing rapidly, it is still in the early stages of development and adoption. This means that there is significant potential for future growth and innovation. Other Important Points * **AI is driving increased cloud consumption**: AI is driving increased demand for cloud services, as organizations need cloud infrastructure to support AI workloads. This is benefiting cloud providers and infrastructure companies. * **AI is creating new monetization opportunities**: AI is creating new monetization opportunities for software companies, including through the development of new AI-powered products and services, as well as through the integration of AI into existing products and services. * **AI is transforming the software industry**: AI is transforming the software industry by enabling new types of applications and services, and by changing the way software is developed and delivered. * **AI is creating new challenges**: AI is also creating new challenges, including ethical and societal challenges, as well as technical challenges related to AI safety and security. 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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call pertains to the foreign exchange (FX) market, specifically focusing on USD positioning and related currency strategies as analyzed by Morgan Stanley Research. Core Insights and Arguments - **USD Positioning**: Speculative USD (DXY) futures positioning increased to 27.5% of open interest in the week ending December 10, up from 24.1% the previous week [11] - **Market Sentiment**: In the week ending December 12, USD experienced the largest improvement in the Daily Sentiment Index, while sentiment on JPY, CAD, and CHF deteriorated the most among G10 currencies [11] - **Options and Futures Market Activity**: Investors added long USD positions and reduced short NOK positions against EUR, while increasing short positions in JPY and GBP. In the futures market, short positions in CHF and CAD were reduced, while short positions in USD and AUD were added [42][45] - **Tactical Investor Behavior**: Options data indicate that tactical investors are predominantly long on USD (DXY) and most short on AUD and GBP, with futures positioning showing long EUR and short CAD and NZD [45] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Data Sources and Methodology**: The analysis is based on options and futures data from DTCC, Bloomberg, and Macrobond, with specific methodologies outlined for assessing FX positioning [20][44] - **Market Trends**: The report highlights a shift in investor behavior, indicating a strategic pivot towards USD amidst changing market conditions, which could signal potential investment opportunities or risks in the FX market [42][45] - **Analyst Insights**: The report includes insights from multiple strategists at Morgan Stanley, emphasizing the collaborative nature of the analysis and the importance of diverse perspectives in understanding market dynamics [42] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, focusing on USD positioning and market sentiment within the FX landscape.

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 M Idea - JAZZ (+45% to our $175 price target): Ziihera for HER2+ BTC. The 2L BTC commercial launch is underway following Ziihera accelerated approval on November 20, 2024. Further out, we expect additional Ziihera topline growth could come from gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma (GEA) and the pivotal HERIZON-GEA-01 topline in 2Q25. | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------- ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 16 Dec 2024 09:39:51 ET │ 42 pages Our July 2024 sector downgrade proved overly bearish as we did not expect the pull-forward demand to last into DecQ-24, that has been partly holding SCFI above the 2,000 level. We reassessed risks / rewards and see positive payoffs at 0.8-0.9x 2025E PBV of APAC liners under coverage in relation to revised up 2025E core ROE of 8-12% from cBE earlier. This is driven by expected demand strength in MarQ-25E that is close to be able to cover TransPa ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **datacenter market** and **global server shipments** in the **hardware technology** sector, particularly focusing on the **Asia Pacific** region [13][14]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Global Server Shipments**: In 3Q24, global server shipments totaled **3.7 million units**, reflecting a **1% quarter-over-quarter (q/q)** increase and a **19% year-over-year (y/y)** increase [13]. - **AI Server Demand**: AI server shipments continued to ramp up, with Super Micro reporting an **8% q/q** increase in shipments, attributed to improved GPU supply [13]. The average selling price (ASP) for AI servers fell by **1% q/q** to **US$19.5k** due to lower H100 pricing [13]. - **General Compute Server Demand**: General compute server demand is expected to remain stable, with ODMs anticipating **mid-single-digit (MSD) y/y growth** for cloud customers in CY25 [14]. - **High-End Server Performance**: High-end server shipments grew **180% y/y** and **25% q/q**, while mid-range servers increased **113% y/y** and **41% q/q** [38]. Entry-level servers saw a **12% y/y** increase but a **3% q/q** decline [38]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: ODMs regained market share in the general and AI server markets from OEMs, with ODM direct market share increasing to **36.4%** in 3Q24, up **40 basis points (bps)** q/q [35]. Regional Performance - **Regional Growth**: The USA outperformed other regions with a **25% y/y** growth in shipments, followed by Asia Pacific excluding Japan (APxJ) at **18% y/y**, and the rest of the world (ROW) at **13% y/y** [17]. Stock Implications - **Preferred Stocks**: The report favors downstream ODMs such as **Hon Hai (2317.TW)**, **FII (601138.SS)**, **Wiwynn (6669.TW)**, and **Quanta (2382.TW)** for potential investment opportunities [15]. Additional Insights - **ASP Trends**: The ASP for ODM direct servers increased by **38% q/q** to approximately **US$21.6k**, likely due to a higher contribution from AI servers [39]. - **Future Expectations**: The GB200 server racks are expected to ramp up significantly from **mid-February 2025**, with projections of **500 racks in 4Q24**, **~2,000 racks in 1Q25**, and **5,000-10,000 racks in 2Q25** [36]. Conclusion - The datacenter market is experiencing robust growth driven by AI and general compute server demand, with significant opportunities for investment in key ODMs as they regain market share and adapt to evolving technology needs.

The Central Financial and Economic Affair Office said new wordings on policies are significant, and concrete measures will be disclosed at the March NPC. M Foundation Final demand is the key Cross-sectional evidence suggests investment slowdown is not enough for reflation 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Dec-14Jun-15Dec-15Jun-16Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Dec-24 China ...