Asia Pacific Equity Research 27 November 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Property & Banks Vanke's bond extension - what are the implications? Jocelyn Gao (852) 2800-8529 jocelyn.gao@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Internet** industry, particularly developments in **AI** and **chatbot applications**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **AI Model Developments**: - US AI models have regained top positions in rankings, with Google releasing **Gemini 3 Pro** and **Nano Banana Pro**, showcasing superior capabilities compared to existing models despite concerns about diminishing returns in AI scaling laws [1][8][29]. - Chinese AI models are expected to catch up within 3-6 months after US releases, indicating a competitive landscape [1][8]. 2. **Consumer AI Applications**: - **Alibaba** launched the **Qwen App**, achieving **10 million downloads** in the first week, aiming to be a productivity assistant that supports shopping and local services [1][9]. - **Ant Group's LingGuang App** reached **2 million downloads** in 6 days, focusing on AI coding capabilities [1][11]. - **Tencent** integrated AI assistant **Yuanbao** into **WeChat Pay**, enhancing operational efficiency for SMEs [1][11]. 3. **AI Infrastructure Demand**: - There is a growing demand for AI inference, with Chinese data centers expected to see a demand upcycle starting in **2026**. **Alibaba** noted that new AI demand is outpacing infrastructure capacity, leading to an optimistic capex outlook [1][12]. - **Bytedance's Volcano Engine** serves a significant portion of top brands and institutions, indicating strong market penetration [1][12]. 4. **Capex Trends**: - **Alibaba's** capex increased by **80% year-over-year** to **Rmb 32 billion**, while **Tencent's** capex declined due to chip availability issues [1][8]. - Alibaba's positive capex outlook is attributed to its AI infrastructure capabilities, contrasting with Tencent's more cautious approach [1][8]. 5. **AI Model Releases**: - **Xiaomi** introduced the **MiMo-Embodied model**, integrating autonomous driving and embodied AI capabilities [1][12]. - **Tencent** released **HunyuanVideo 1.5**, a video generation model with competitive performance metrics [1][12]. 6. **Market Dynamics**: - The Chinese AI market is characterized by a mix of open-source models and competitive pricing, with **80% of AI startups** utilizing open-source models from China [1][12]. - The gap in multi-modal capabilities between Chinese and global players is narrowing, with Chinese models differentiating through cost and speed [1][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Valuation Comparisons**: Tencent and Alibaba are trading at lower valuations compared to global peers, suggesting potential upside for investors [1][8]. - **Engagement Trends**: Domestic AI applications have seen a **15% month-over-month increase** in engagement, driven by platforms like **Doubao** and **DeepSeek** [1][17]. - **E-commerce and Local Services**: E-commerce engagement grew by **11% year-over-year**, with platforms like **JD** and **Taobao** showing strong performance [1][16]. - **Regulatory Environment**: Cross-border e-commerce faces increasing regulatory pressure, particularly affecting platforms like **Temu** [1][16]. This summary encapsulates the key developments and insights from the conference call, highlighting the competitive landscape and growth potential within the China Internet and AI sectors.

Summary of the Conference Call for Luzhou Laojiao Industry Overview - The liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with external environment and policy impacts being the main sources of pressure. The industry has not yet reached a bottom or turning point, and pressure is expected to persist in the near future due to a weak consumption environment [2][3][7]. Company Performance and Expectations - Luzhou Laojiao's performance expectations for Q4 and the entire year are under pressure, with reported data aligning with terminal sales conditions. However, sales pressure is affecting inventory digestion. The company maintains a stable pricing strategy and does not compensate for losses from low-price sales [2][4]. - The company has not disclosed its operational plan for 2026, indicating that it will plan according to market conditions and economic laws while ensuring a healthy sales ecosystem [2][6]. Product Performance - There is a noticeable differentiation in performance between high and low alcohol products, with low alcohol products showing relative resilience. The low alcohol product 1,573 has performed steadily, and the trend towards lower alcohol content is gradual and long-term [2][9][10]. - The brand "Laozihao Tequ" is focused on brand revival, maintaining a stable price around 200 yuan, and is less affected by industry adjustments. The company plans to strengthen channel construction and consumer cultivation in the 100-300 yuan price range [2][11][12]. Sales and Distribution Strategy - Luzhou Laojiao is expanding its terminal presence, particularly in Sichuan and North China, to enhance market share. The company emphasizes online channels and instant retail while traditional tobacco and liquor stores remain the main distribution channels [4][15][18]. - The company is cautious about introducing lower alcohol products below 30 degrees, focusing on quality and stability before launching new products [10][20]. Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The company anticipates that the consumption environment will remain weak, with the impact of policies likely to diminish over time. However, a sudden surge in consumer demand during the Spring Festival is not expected [7][25]. - The current pricing strategy is stable, with the company not compensating for losses from low-price sales, which helps maintain price stability [8][23]. Digitalization and Inventory Management - Luzhou Laojiao has a relatively mature digitalization strategy, with high opening rates for its products. The implementation of a five-in-one system effectively addresses issues of cross-regional sales [4][24]. - The company is managing inventory levels carefully, as a slowdown in sales could lead to instability in inventory levels [5]. Future Outlook - The company expects to continue facing significant pressure in the liquor industry over the next few quarters, with cautious optimism for 2026 depending on improvements in the consumption environment and reduced policy impacts [25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the challenges and strategies of Luzhou Laojiao within the broader context of the baijiu industry.

Summary of Conference Call on Asia Emerging Robotics and Hesai Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Hesai, a global leader in LiDAR technology, particularly known for its "laser eyes" applications in robotics and automotive sectors [1] - **Industry**: Robotics and Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), focusing on the integration of LiDAR technology for enhanced safety and performance [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Necessity of LiDAR**: - LiDAR has proven superior in handling safety-critical scenarios compared to camera-only ADAS solutions, which have not reduced severe injury rates in vehicles [2][7] - The injury rates in vehicles equipped with camera-only systems remain significantly higher than those with LiDAR [2][7] 2. **Market Adoption**: - More automotive OEMs are adopting LiDAR for higher levels of autonomous driving, indicating a shift in industry standards [2][18] - The performance of LiDAR-enabled ADAS solutions is improving rapidly, showcasing the technology's potential [2][20] 3. **Affordability and Mass Adoption**: - The cost of long-range ADAS LiDAR has decreased to around USD 200, making it more accessible than many passive safety systems [3][26] - Current penetration of long-range ADAS LiDAR in China is about 10%, with expectations for significant growth due to attractive pricing [3][31] - Over 70% of passenger vehicles sold in China are priced below USD 28,000, indicating a large market for affordable LiDAR solutions [3][35] 4. **Evolution of Robotics**: - Robotics typically relies on various perception technologies, but LiDAR's time-of-flight principle offers advantages in detection range and low-light performance [4][46] - New products integrating LiDAR and camera functions are emerging, such as RoboSense's AC2 and Huawei's Limera, which represent a new generation of "laser eyes" for robotics [4][55][57] 5. **Investment Outlook for Hesai**: - Hesai's stock has de-rated since mid-September and is currently trading at approximately 25x forward P/E, presenting attractive entry points for investors [4][60] - The company is rated as "Outperform" with price targets set at USD 33.00 for HSAI.US and HKD 253.00 for 2525.HK [64] Additional Important Points - The report emphasizes the ongoing debate regarding the necessity of LiDAR in robotics, given the lower safety risks compared to automotive applications [4] - The integration of LiDAR technology is expected to become a standard in both automotive and robotics sectors, shifting the choice from passive cameras to active "laser eyes" [4] - The report highlights the potential for Hesai amid the growth in intelligent vehicles and emerging robotics, reinforcing the company's strategic position in the market [4]

Summary of Shede Liquor Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shede Liquor Industry - **Industry**: Baijiu (Chinese liquor) Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance and Market Recovery - During the double festival period, four major products achieved year-on-year growth, indicating a gradual recovery in Baijiu consumption scenarios [2][3] - The demand for banquet scenarios is recovering the fastest, with the mass consumption segment maintaining double-digit growth, particularly for the T68 product [2][5] - Post-festival, the company continues to track weekly opening bottle numbers, which are still in a recovery phase [3] Inventory Management - The company has optimized distributor inventory to 3-4 months, ensuring a healthy and sustainable growth trajectory [2][6] - The goal is to further reduce inventory to 3 months or less by year-end, which is considered a reasonable level [7][8] Pricing and Sales Strategy - Strict price control and incentive adjustments are in place to ensure alignment between actual sales and financial reports [6][16] - The company has shifted its incentive system to target achievement based on historical sales data, resulting in over 75% of sales personnel receiving bonuses [6] Product Performance - T68 is positioned as a mid-to-high-end product and has shown steady growth in the mass consumption segment, contributing to the company's revenue [12][13] - The new 29-degree product "Zizai" is aimed at young consumers and will not enter traditional channels, focusing instead on self-operated stores and new sales strategies [14][26] E-commerce and Online Sales - E-commerce channels have seen rapid growth, with their share increasing to over 10% in 2025, and the company plans to increase online investments while maintaining stable offline development [15][18] - The main focus online is on cultural products, which do not compete with traditional distributors [18] Regional Performance - The "Pinwei Shede" brand has performed exceptionally well in Shandong, particularly in cities like Liaocheng, Tianjin, and Tangshan [10][11] - The company has seen significant growth in the Shandong market post-ban on alcohol [5][21] Future Outlook - The company expects to perform slightly better than the industry average if the overall market remains healthy [9] - Plans for 2026 include continued focus on brand elevation and channel penetration to secure a larger customer base [9][13] International Expansion - The company is actively pursuing international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and the U.S., adapting products to local cultures and preferences [22][23] - Overseas sales have increased by over 50% in the first half of the year, although significant results will take time [23] New Product Development - The introduction of the 29-degree "Zizai" product aims to cater to new drinkers and women, while also appealing to older consumers who prefer lower alcohol content [24][26] - The company plans to launch affordable products around 100 yuan to meet diverse consumer needs [25][26] Conclusion - Shede Liquor Industry is strategically positioned for growth through effective inventory management, targeted marketing, and expansion into new consumer segments and international markets. The focus on product innovation and e-commerce development will further enhance its competitive edge in the Baijiu industry.

Summary of Xianhe Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xianhe Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Pulp and Paper Key Points Diversification and Raw Material Layout - Xianhe has diversified its raw material sources, including non-eucalyptus fibers such as reed pulp and sugarcane pulp, enhancing its risk resistance and laying a foundation for new product development [2][4] - The Hubei base has reached full production capacity for biological paper using reed pulp, while the Guangxi phase one has been fully operational, with phase two planning for fluff pulp production [2][4] Capacity Expansion Plans - Domestic capacity expansion is progressing steadily, with Guangxi phase two expected to be operational by the end of 2026 and a unique project in Sichuan anticipated to partially launch by the end of 2027 [2][6] - The overseas base in Cambodia is expected to start production by the end of 2026, with considerations for expansion into the Middle East to avoid trade barriers and expand international markets [2][6] Profitability and Market Outlook - Xianhe expects industry price increases in 2026 to improve profitability, with ongoing overseas base construction and cost control measures [2][7] - The company anticipates a recovery in the specialty paper industry, with its leading position expected to yield more pronounced trends compared to peers [3] Investment in Southeast Asia - The investment in Cambodia aims to explore the Southeast Asian market, serving clients in Vietnam and Cambodia, with future plans to assess Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia [9][12] - The investment in Cambodia is approximately 500 million RMB, considered a preliminary attempt to establish a production base close to key markets [9] Product Production and Market Demand - The Cambodian base will produce over 10 types of products, including consumer materials and industrial materials, with flexibility to adjust production based on customer needs [10] Competitive Advantages - Chinese companies have strong production capabilities in tobacco-related materials, having overcome technical challenges and aligning with international standards, enhancing competitiveness in global markets [11] Pulp Price Trends - Pulp prices are on a cyclical upward trend, having increased by $50 in September, with domestic prices rising by 200 RMB, driven by rising wood chip costs [13][14] - The average production cost in China is approximately $490 per ton, but rising wood chip prices are pushing costs higher, potentially impacting profit margins [15] Strategic Responses to Market Conditions - Xianhe maintains a stable ratio of self-use to external sales, with approximately 20% of production sold externally to ensure customer relationships and market share [17][18] - The company is prepared to adjust import-export structures and optimize internal resource allocation in response to raw material supply fluctuations [19] Capital Expenditure Plans - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected at 3 billion RMB, primarily for projects in Sichuan, Hubei, Guangxi phase two, and Cambodia [23] Overall Financial Performance - In 2025, Xianhe's overall costs have decreased, leading to better profit performance, with brand and service quality becoming increasingly important in a challenging market [21][22]

2025 分析师大会 - 第七届新浪财经金麒麟分析师盛典 20251128 摘要 新浪财经通过专业报道和技术创新，提升市场效率和信息平权，为投资 者提供决策支持，并推动中国商业世界的健康发展，尤其是在 AI 技术应 用方面，重塑财经信息分发逻辑，实现专业内容与用户需求的精准匹配。 金麒麟评选注重年轻分析师的培养，结合互联网思维，为行业注入新活 力。券商研究部门需通过研究提升影响力，促进交易业务发展，并优化 考核机制，实现国家战略、公司利益及个人发展的多方共赢。 国际形势正经历深刻变化，包括特朗普归来的冲击、中美战略博弈态势 的演变、俄乌冲突的走向以及中东地缘政治的复杂性，这些变化共同影 响着全球格局，并对中国提出了新的挑战和机遇。 中国在全球经济中的地位日益提升，将继续推进开放，加强与全球南方 国家的合作。同时，社会融资结构正在经历从间接融资向直接融资的转 变，为资本市场发展带来新机遇。 利率下行趋势对实体经济有利，但对依赖息差收入的金融机构构成挑战。 货币政策需适应脱媒现象，探索新的政策工具，中介机构需转型提供综 合服务，以应对息差收窄的压力。 Q&A 新浪财经在推动中国经济发展方面有哪些具体举措？ 新浪财 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Bear Electric (小熊电器) Company Overview - **Company**: Bear Electric (小熊电器) - **Industry**: Small home appliances Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **Fourth Quarter Performance**: Despite benefiting from the release of national subsidies, the demand improvement was insufficient compared to last year, leading to pressure on annual revenue targets. The performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival did not meet expectations, necessitating adjustments in November and December sales [2][4][5] - **Revenue Pressure**: The Double Eleven event has impacted the annual revenue target, particularly as the fourth quarter is crucial for sales and revenue realization. The third quarter's operational status deviated from expectations due to external factors like tax, government subsidies, and reduced financial income [5] Market Dynamics - **Overseas Market Challenges**: The small home appliance export market has declined due to policy fluctuations, with cross-border e-commerce, OEM, and self-owned brands each accounting for about one-third of the business, showing a slight overall decline [2][6] - **Domestic Sales Channels**: The revenue structure shows that Taobao and JD.com each account for 30%, while Douyin accounts for 8-9% with a growth rate of 30-40%. The overseas market has declined, and the company has capitalized on Douyin's support to significantly improve profitability [10][11] Product Strategy - **Focus on High-Margin Products**: The company is shifting its strategic focus towards maintaining profits by optimizing the sales expense ratio and increasing the proportion of high-margin, high-priced products such as coffee machines and baby products, while phasing out low-margin SKUs [3][20] - **Kitchen Business**: The kitchen segment accounts for 60% of the business, with a goal to maintain profitability without aggressive expansion. Resources will be allocated to emerging categories like baby and pet products, which have shown rapid growth [12][15] M&A Strategy - **Acquisition Focus**: The company prefers to acquire brands with market influence, particularly in overseas markets like North America and Europe, to empower its overseas division. Domestic acquisitions will focus on market share and synergy post-integration [13][14][26] Competitive Landscape - **Market Competition**: The competitive landscape has intensified due to reduced national subsidies, leading to a phenomenon of self-subsidization among brands. However, the overall competition has not significantly worsened compared to last year [17][18] - **Price Strategy**: The company is focusing on high-margin products in its pricing strategy, leading to a year-on-year increase in prices, with expectations of a less aggressive price war compared to the previous year [19] Future Outlook - **Growth in Baby Products**: The baby product category is expected to grow significantly, driven by upgrades in product materials and designs, aiming to capture a larger market share in the future [15][16] - **Southeast Asia Expansion**: The company is establishing a local team in Indonesia, viewing it as a key market with significant potential, and aims to match its performance in Vietnam through local brand agency models [21] Operational Improvements - **Production Efficiency**: The company has implemented measures to enhance cost control and production yield, resulting in significant improvements expected in 2024 compared to the previous year [9] Conclusion - **Strategic Direction**: The company is committed to external acquisitions as a major strategic direction, aiming to break through revenue ceilings and enhance its market position while maintaining a focus on profitability and operational efficiency [26]

Summary of Shanxi Coal International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shanxi Coal International - **Industry**: Coal Production Key Points Production and Sales Forecast - Shanxi Coal International expects coal production to remain between 35-36 million tons in 2025, aligning with production capacity [2][3] - Sales target for 2025 is set at 26-27 million tons, with metallurgical coal sold based on market conditions and thermal coal primarily for supply assurance [2][3] Regulatory Environment - The impact of Shanxi Province's safety and environmental policies on production is expected to diminish starting January 2025, with regulatory intensity anticipated to remain similar to 2024 [2][5] Cost Control - Cost control has been effective, with costs dropping to 230 RMB/ton in Q3 2025, and an expected average cost below 300 RMB/ton for the year, down from 308 RMB/ton in 2024 [2][7] - The company attributes cost reductions to stable sales, passive cost reductions due to declining performance, and strict expense management [7] Price Expectations - Thermal coal prices are projected to fluctuate between 700-800 RMB/ton from December to Q1 2026, with limited demand growth and supply-side reforms influencing this stability [2][8] - For 2026, thermal coal prices are expected to range from 700-900 RMB/ton, with a central tendency around 750-800 RMB/ton [4][12] Inventory Management - Coal inventory was high at over 3 million tons in Q1 2025 but has decreased significantly by Q3, with expectations of returning to a reasonable level of around 300,000 tons by December [10] Import Policies - The company anticipates that if domestic demand weakens, there may be tighter controls on coal imports, which have been increasing but are expected to stabilize [11] Resource Development - Shanxi Coal International is actively monitoring resource release opportunities in Shanxi Province, with plans to pursue new mining rights as they become available [13] Market Dynamics - The company notes that the demand for thermal coal is stable, and the supply-side adjustments over the past two years have limited growth in new production capacity, reducing the likelihood of significant price fluctuations [12] Conclusion - Overall, Shanxi Coal International is positioned to maintain stable production and sales in the coming years, with effective cost management and a favorable regulatory environment contributing to its outlook. The company is also strategically focused on resource acquisition to support future growth.

皖能电力 20251128 摘要 皖能电力发电量增速已超去年同期，受益于安徽省电力现货市场价格上 涨，尤其 9、10 月显著上升，但 11 月受天气影响略降，整体仍处高位。 长协合同占比约 40%，现货不足 10%，煤价波动影响有限。 公司在建新能源项目集中，新疆 50 万千瓦风电和 80 万千瓦光伏大基地 项目近期全容量并网，与东方电气合作 100 万千瓦风电项目。2025 年 10 月安徽用电量增速近 17%，主因去年同期基数低及新能源供应受天 气影响减少。 安徽省火电脱硫脱硝长期合同比例高，现货交易量小，价格波动相对较 小。2025 年 10 月发电竞争激烈，现货市场价格创历史新高，约 0.366-0.367 元/千瓦时，高于上半年。 2026 年火电脱硫脱硝长期合同及利润展望待政府政策指引。预计容量 费用标准提高后，发电企业将获保障。明年投产煤电脱硫脱硝装机容量 近 10GW，占当前比例约 10%，若用电量稳定，利用小时数或降约 10%。 皖能电力积极推进新能源项目，储备 200 多万千瓦风电项目，包括新疆 175 万千瓦项目，预计 2026 年陆续投产。省内 50 万千瓦风电项目， 30 万千瓦在建 ...