更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH One Big Thing: The Long Goodbye The US Economy is humming: Atlanta Fed GDP Now at +3.3% for Q4 3-Oct 10-O ...

Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Basic Materials High CV thermal coal prices in AU (gNEWC) have fallen from ~$150/t in Oct to ~$130/t due to stable supply (Fig51) and softening demand (Fig53) with a warmer-thanexpected start to the winter resulting in elevated stock levels; we expect prices to remain range bound at $120-140/t in 2025, with upside driven by colder weather from La Nina or supply disruption from wet weather or surging gas prices, and downside from strong nuclear & gas output from JKT. API2 pric ...

Expect de-stocking cycle in 2025-27E; sales resilient in Dec but cooler in 1Q25E — Nov sales were more resilient than expected after policies & we expect Dec sales likely posting mild "tail bounce" in T1 & good T2 cities, but potentially cooling down in 1Q25E. We see property destocking cycle & price stabilization could continue in 2025-27E, thus est. continued REI decline in '25E. With new starts and land sales both at new lows since 2005, we see likely further downside to new home market size (resi GFA so ...

| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | Global Technology: Semiconductors Top 10 Takeaways from our Asia Tech Tour | | | We visited ~25 companies throughout the IT supply chain last week across the ma ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Europe Equity Research 16 December 2024 J P M O R G A N EMEA Gold Miners Metals Weekly: Who is going to buy gold in 2025? Stay OW Hochschild, AngloGold, & Fresnillo JPM Commodities Research (led by Greg Shearer) published their Metals Weekly, focusing on the outlook for gold in 2025 (link). Although gold has rallied ~30% this year, our colleagues maintain bullish outlook for gold prices given a still disruptive macro scenario stemming from increased tariffs, surging trade tensio ...

Product must take into account existing public information on such security or any registered prospectus. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that the Firm believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete and condensed. Note, however, that the Firm has taken all reasonable steps to determine the accuracy and completeness of the disclosures made in the Important Disclosures section of the Product. The Firm's research department has received ...

16 December 2024 | 11:34AM HKT China: 70-city average primary property prices roughly stable in November annualized, -5.8% yoy. 1. After seasonal adjustments, weighted average house prices in the primary market fell by 0.1% mom annualized in November (vs. -3.6% in October; Exhibit 1), on the back of ongoing easing policies. The number of cities that experienced sequentially higher property prices increased notably in both primary and secondary markets in November (Exhibit 3). Year-on-year change in the weig ...

Figure 27: Phoenix Diesel – ANS $/bbl 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5-yr range 2022 2023 2024 50 70 90 10 30 110 130 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Figure 28: Salt Lake City Diesel – WTI Cushing $/bbl - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5-yr range 2022 2023 2024 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 15 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Figure 29: US Denver – WTI Cushing 3:2:1 Crack Spr ...

Key Takeaways Industry/Company - **Industry**: China Economics, Asia Pacific - **Company**: Not specified, focus on broader economic and policy analysis Core Points and Arguments - **Beijing Forward Guidance**: Beijing provided forward guidance for the fiscal package to be announced in March NPC, marking the first time in over a decade. This was a positive step, although the package is expected to remain modest with a slightly improved mix. - **Consumption Support**: Significant increase in special long-term CGBs for consumer goods trade-in program. The program is expected to double in size next year, covering more non-durable goods. - **Housing Market**: Use of LGSB to support housing inventory digestion and giving local government more autonomy in setting criteria for housing buyback. The size of the housing buyback program could be similar to this year's (~Rmb300bn), but easing the criteria may help accelerate implementation. - **Local Government Fiscal Constraints**: Efforts to promote central-local fiscal reforms and settling payables to corporates. Beijing is expected to adopt more central government leveraging to support the economy and use local debt swaps to mitigate the risk of a deflationary downward spiral. - **Consumption Tax Reform**: A pilot program on consumption tax reform (e.g., high-end watches, jewelry) is possible, but broad-based implementation is unlikely given the deflationary economy. Other Important Content - **Market Reaction**: The market reacted disappointedly to the vague CEWC statement last week, leading to the need for forward guidance. - **Fiscal Package**: The fiscal package is expected to be modest with a slightly improved mix, focusing on consumption support, housing market, and local government fiscal constraints. - **Economic Outlook**: The forward guidance indicates a cautious approach to economic policy, with a focus on addressing specific challenges in the economy.

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