Summary of Key Points from the Research Report on Global Beverages Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global soft drinks bottling industry, particularly the competitive dynamics between major players such as PepsiCo (PEP) and Coca-Cola (KO) in Europe and Asia [1][20]. Core Insights 1. **Bottling Network Consolidation**: PEP is evolving its bottling strategy to consolidate its fragmented network into fewer multi-market 'anchor' bottlers, similar to KO's model. This shift is expected to drive further consolidation in the industry [2][30]. 2. **Carlsberg's Position**: Carlsberg's acquisition of Britvic positions it as PEP's largest European bottler, with expectations of further consolidation benefiting Carlsberg and Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) [2][3]. 3. **Royal Unibrew's Challenges**: Royal Unibrew is seen as structurally disadvantaged in the evolving competitive landscape, leading to a downgrade in its rating to Equal Weight (EW) [9][77]. 4. **Market Share Dynamics**: PEP has gained market share in Denmark and Finland at the expense of KO, with PEP's share in Denmark increasing from 6.6% in 2015 to 19.6% in 2023, while KO's share declined from 47.4% to 33.8% [47][48]. 5. **Potential Volume Increases for CCEP**: If Carlsberg loses its KO contracts in Denmark and Finland, CCEP could see a volume increase of approximately 3% in Europe [3][52]. Financial Metrics and Forecasts 1. **Royal Unibrew's Financial Outlook**: The consensus forecast for Royal Unibrew's operating profit growth (OPG) is +9.5% for FY25, but this is viewed as optimistic given the competitive landscape [9][83]. 2. **Debt Levels**: Following the Britvic deal, Carlsberg's debt levels are expected to be higher than its peers, raising concerns about financial stability, especially with significant cash flow reliance on China [8][9]. 3. **Valuation Adjustments**: The report adjusts Royal Unibrew's target growth rate (TGR) from 1.5% to 1.0%, resulting in a price target reduction of approximately 6% to DKK 653 [9][86]. Strategic Considerations 1. **Future Bottling Contracts**: The report suggests that future PEP contracts may be harder for Royal Unibrew to secure due to its weaker positioning compared to Carlsberg [77][82]. 2. **Geographic Expansion Opportunities**: Carlsberg is expanding its relationship with PEP into Asia, including new bottling licenses in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, indicating growth potential beyond Europe [72][73]. 3. **Competitive Landscape**: The changing dynamics favor Carlsberg over Royal Unibrew, as Carlsberg has a stronger presence in key beer markets and better distribution capabilities [7][61]. Risks and Challenges 1. **Market Volatility**: The report highlights risks associated with a potential consumer slowdown, which could impact demand and pricing power across markets [95][144]. 2. **M&A Opportunities**: Royal Unibrew's ability to pursue accretive M&A is crucial for its growth, and any failure to do so could limit its competitive edge [89][144]. Conclusion - The report indicates a significant shift in the soft drinks bottling landscape, with Carlsberg positioned to benefit from PEP's consolidation strategy while Royal Unibrew faces increasing challenges. The financial outlook for both companies is closely tied to their ability to navigate these competitive dynamics and secure future contracts.

Memory – Winds of Change? No fundamental changes post the Jan. 6 rally – we expect more conservative 1Q25 guidance, confirming the cycle inflecting lower. Channel checks do not support upgrades. At a high level, more scraping the bottom of the AI narrative barrel (CES), but we maintain a cautious view in our base case. Justifying the recent rally... When share prices are up, then sentiment is up. And vice-versa. Last December was unpleasant for the DRAM sector, with stocks down 2% as a group (Hynix +8%, Sam ...

January 6, 2025 04:27 PM GMT Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific TFT-LCD Panel Price Outlook for Jan-25: TV +1.3% and NB/ Monitor Flat We view risk/reward for panel stocks as skewed more to the upside amid the TV panel price upward trend. OW Innolux and BOE; EW AUO. TV panel prices expected to be+1.3% in January 2025: Mainstream 32", 43", 55", 65" and 75" TV panel prices are expected to be +3%, +2%, +0%, +1%, +1%, respectively, in Jan 2025, implying a 1.3% MoM increase on average for the month. ...

6 January 2025 U.S. Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment U.S. Semiconductors & Semicap Equipment - Ten "cheat sheets" for our sector & stocks in 2025 Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 212 756 4403 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Alrick Shaw +1 212 969 1458 alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes +1 212 969 1518 arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Here's hoping for a happy and healthy 2025! As we begin the new year, as usual we thought it would be useful to provide succinct thesis overviews for our covered ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Semiconductors Core Insights - **AI Instances Growth**: AI instances grew by +0.9% month-over-month (M/M) in November, a decrease from +3.3% in October [1][2] - **NVIDIA (NVDA) Dominance**: NVDA captured 97.7% of new accelerator instances in November, increasing its total market share by +30 basis points (bps) to 85.0% [1][2] - **AMD's Performance**: AMD gained +70 bps in CPU market share, driven by the EPYC Genoa processor, while Intel (INTC) saw a decline of -70 bps [1][3] Market Share Dynamics - **CPU Instances**: Total processor-only instances increased by +1.5% M/M, with AMD holding 62.9% of CPU instances in November, up from 8.7% in October [3][31] - **Intel's Decline**: INTC's share of new CPU instances fell to 31.6% in November from 41.4% in October, with total INTC share declining -70 bps to 65.7% [3][31] - **Microsoft (MSFT) VM Instances**: MSFT maintained a leading position in cloud service providers (CSPs) with a 35.3% share of VM instances, up from 34.6% in October [4][31] Performance of Key Players - **AMD's EPYC Genoa**: The EPYC Genoa processor accounted for almost all incremental instances in November, increasing its share to 7.1% from 6.1% [3][31] - **AWS's Graviton Instances**: AWS's Graviton instances grew by +1.6% M/M, maintaining a flat share [31] - **CSP Market Shifts**: ORCL, BABA, and AMZN saw increases in their instance shares, while GOOG and Tencent experienced declines [47] Additional Insights - **Accelerator Mix**: The mix of dedicated accelerators has remained flat M/M, with GPUs making up 89.0% of total accelerator instances, the highest recorded [26][31] - **Market Trends**: The overall growth in instances deployed by CSPs was +1.4% M/M, driven by processor-only instances growing +1.5% M/M [17][31] Conclusion The semiconductor industry is witnessing significant shifts in market share, particularly with NVDA's strong performance in accelerators and AMD's gains in CPU instances. The competitive landscape is evolving, with key players like MSFT, AWS, and ORCL also making notable strides in their respective markets.

Summary of US Aerospace & Defense 2025 Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US Aerospace & Defense (A&D) industry, highlighting key debates and investment opportunities for 2025, particularly in Original Equipment (OE) and Aftermarket (AM) segments [2][7]. Core Insights 1. **Investment Strategy**: A barbell approach is recommended, favoring both OE and AM to capture improving production rates while hedging supply chain risks [2][7]. 2. **Boeing (BA) Production**: Boeing's MAX production is projected to reach 38 units per month by October 2025, with expectations for the stock to outperform as normalized earnings and free cash flow (FCF) potential are recognized [2][6]. 3. **Business Jet Market**: 2025 is anticipated to be the peak year for business jet deliveries, with deliveries expected to exceed orders, leading to a reduction in backlog [2][6]. 4. **Department of Defense (DoD) Budget**: No significant cuts to the DoD investment budget are expected, although uncertainties regarding federal cuts and specific contracts may impact valuations [2][6]. 5. **Government IT Spending**: Non-defense spending is at greater risk, particularly affecting Government IT (GovIT) sectors, which have seen an overreaction in stock sell-offs [2][6]. Key Debates for 2025 1. **OE vs. AM Performance**: There is an expectation for OE to outperform AM, driven by Boeing's recovery and supplier earnings inflection, despite potential supply chain disruptions [8][14]. 2. **Boeing's Recovery Year**: 2025 is viewed as a pivotal year for Boeing, with improvements in quality and supply chain stability expected to lead to positive FCF in the second half of the year [8][14]. 3. **Peak Business Jet Deliveries**: The industry is expected to face oversupply in 2025, with higher deliveries leading to increased used aircraft inventory [8][14]. 4. **DoD Investment Growth**: National security remains a bipartisan priority, with projected growth in the DoD budget, although targeted cuts may occur [8][14]. 5. **DOGE Concerns**: Concerns regarding the DOGE administration's impact on federal spending are seen as overblown, but challenges for GovIT are anticipated [8][14]. Investment Recommendations - **Buy Recommendations**: - **Boeing (BA)**: Anticipated recovery with a large backlog and improved production management [11]. - **Woodward (WWD)**: Expected growth in next-gen engines and aftermarket services [11]. - **General Electric (GE)**: Strong growth potential in aftermarket services and engine deliveries [11]. - **Northrop Grumman (NOC)**: Strong defense pick with exposure to high-priority DoD programs [11]. - **CACI**: Favorable exposure to DoD and intelligence sectors, with potential for re-rating as budget visibility improves [11]. - **Sell Recommendations**: - **Bombardier (BBD.B)** and **Textron (TXT)**: Expected underperformance due to oversupply and market conditions [11]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of normalized earnings and FCF in driving stock performance, particularly for Boeing, which is expected to trade at a 17X mid-cycle multiple as it begins to generate cash [6][11]. - The aftermarket segment is projected to grow steadily, with pricing power and margin expansion anticipated, particularly for engine-exposed companies [15][33]. - The average age of the commercial fleet is increasing, which is expected to support aftermarket demand [26][29]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the US Aerospace & Defense industry for 2025, highlighting key trends, investment strategies, and potential risks.

Software Institutional Equity Research January 6, 2025 2025 Picks – a Year of AI Software Infrastructure We see 2025 as a year driven by the growth of AI infrastructure software. We believe the rotation from AI hardware to AI software infrastructure is already happening and that the rotation into AI applications may not happen until 2026. This informs our focus for 2025 on SNOW, DDOG, FROG. Our focus on CVLT, PHR, and ZETA is based on each company's unique growth setup into the year compared to expectations ...

January 6, 2025 03:35 PM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific Weekly Database Tracker #1 Weekly primary unit sales were +49% YoY and -43% WoW. Weekly secondary unit sales were +67% YoY and -27% WoW. The total sell-through rate was 68% last week. Weekly primary unit sales in 50 cities were +49% YoY (vs. +21% YoY last week) and -43% WoW for the week ended January 5: Tier 1 city sales were +42% YoY (vs. +34% YoY last week) and -37% WoW. Tier 2 city sales were +65% YoY (vs. +22% YoY last week) and -46% WoW. Tier 3 ...

Summary of Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) Investor Event Highlights Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) - **Event Date**: January 4, 2025 - **Location**: Macau - **Key Participants**: Chief Strategy Officer Mr. James Mitchell, Tencent Video CEO Mr. Sun Zhonghuai, China Literature CEO Mr. Hou Xiaonan, and the Investor Relations team Key Focus Areas and Topics 1. **Platform Leadership**: - Tencent has demonstrated consistent leadership across multiple internet domains (e.g., Tencent Video, Tencent Pay, Tencent Games) through patience and balanced execution, surpassing competitors over time [2][6][7] - The company has effectively deployed resources such as capital, user traffic, and social graph to maintain its leadership position [2][9] 2. **Generative AI Initiatives**: - Tencent is focusing on critical resources and multi-strategies to explore AI opportunities, leveraging its hyper computing cluster and sophisticated data [2][14] - The company aims to incorporate Gen-AI powered interfaces into the Weixin app, enhancing growth across advertising, games, cloud, and social networks [14] 3. **Tencent Video**: - Tencent Video is solidifying its leadership in online video entertainment, with a focus on high-quality content creation and profitability [2][15] - The platform has seen strong financial performance in 2024, with revenue and profit growth year-over-year, and is prioritizing high-quality content and talent management [15][19] 4. **China Literature**: - The company is developing a three-stage strategy for monetizing its intellectual properties (IPs) from online literature into various entertainment formats, including games, dramas, and merchandise [2][20] - Tencent is gradually expanding its IP monetization efforts overseas [21] Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Tencent is expected to see continued revenue growth, with estimates of RMB 715.84 billion in 2025 and RMB 768.06 billion in 2026 [23][26] - **Earnings Growth**: The company is projected to achieve a net profit of RMB 210.99 billion in 2025, with a diluted EPS of RMB 26.44 [23][26] - **Valuation**: Tencent is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 15X for 2025E, with a target price of HK$542, indicating a potential upside of 30.9% from the current price of HK$414.20 [24][26] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include increased competition in performance-based advertising, delays in game launches, and slower-than-expected growth in FinTech and Cloud businesses [24] Additional Insights - Tencent's strategy emphasizes a balance between transformation and execution mindsets, allowing the company to identify industry-changing opportunities while maintaining disciplined operational execution [10][12] - The company has a consistent shareholder return policy and has set a buyback target of HK$112 billion for 2024, reducing its total share count to the lowest level in the past decade [6][24] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and financial outlook for Tencent Holdings as discussed during the investor event, highlighting the company's strategic initiatives, financial performance, and potential risks.