Growing brands' strength remain solid: OEMs continue to see good shipment growth to sports brands such as Adidas, Hoka, New Balance, Asics, and On Running, evidenced by related OEMs' solid January sales growth despite the fewer working days YoY given CNY (Lai Yih at +21% YoY, thanks to Hoka; Chung Jye at +22%, thanks to New Balance; and Sports Gear at +37%, thanks to Adidas and Asics). Further, OEMs' comments on growing brands' order growth remain solid for 2025, e.g. Adidas' apparel at +mid-teens to 20% an ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 ab 17 February 2025 First Read China Consumer Appliances Sector Xiaomi debuts HVAC; what are the implications to incumbents? What's new? On February 17, LU Weibing, Partner and President of Xiaomi, has announced the launch of the first HVAC (more specifically Variable Refrigerant Flow product), Mijia Pro, at the end of February, benchmarks Daikin, the global HVAC leader known for premium products. LU thinks the new release is the first key product under its premiumization strate ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 ab 17 February 2025 Global Research BYD Company Limited Rising growth visibility by Celestial Eye Raise price target to HK$450.00; reiterate Buy We raise our PT of BYD to HK$450 from HK$327, on back of 7-14% 25/26E EPS upward revision. We believe the full-scale rollout of autopilot functions without raising product prices will enhance product competitiveness and help BYD gain market share. The company's dominant volume and strong bargaining power in the supply chain should help ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. AP Technology Tracker For Important Disclosures, click here Asia Pacific Reports/Notes SMIC (0981) (Underweight), China Valuations at all-time high; Profitability and growth still s ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **private sector in China**, particularly in the context of recent regulatory changes and economic policies aimed at revitalizing private enterprises amid economic challenges [2][3][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supportive Tone from Leadership**: The symposium indicated a modestly supportive tone towards private enterprises, contrasting with previous sentiments that suggested the private sector had fulfilled its purpose [2][4]. - **Regulatory Reset**: The return of a high-profile business leader, previously affected by regulatory tightening, signals the end of the regulatory tightening cycle and a shift towards revitalization of the private sector [3][6]. - **Policy Commitments**: The government has pledged to lower financing costs, resolve overdue payments, and optimize law enforcement to support private enterprises [2][6]. - **Economic Contributions**: Private enterprises are encouraged to contribute to national economic and social objectives, including technological innovation and social responsibilities [2][6]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Comparative Analysis**: The symposium's stance in February 2025 is more balanced compared to November 2018, highlighting a shift in the government's approach towards private enterprises [4]. - **Future Expectations**: A more predictable regulatory environment is anticipated over the next 2-3 years, although there is a need for consumption-centric reforms to sustain corporate confidence [6]. - **Specific Policy Measures**: Key measures discussed include cutting taxes and fees, ensuring the safety of entrepreneurs' personal and property rights, and promoting equal access to infrastructure [6]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment from the symposium reflects a significant shift in the government's approach to the private sector, indicating a potential for growth and development in the coming years, provided that the outlined policies are effectively implemented [2][3][6].

APAC Tech: Semiconductors Memory: Kioxia CY4Q24 read-across; disciplined capex and 2H25 NAND recovery in-line with our view On February 14, Japanese NAND producer Kioxia (Not Covered) reported its CY4Q24 (FY3Q24 or December quarter) earnings, and we provide read-across to our covered Korean memory suppliers, SK Hynix (Hynix) and Samsung Electronics (SEC). Kioxia's CY4Q24 NAND results in-line with SEC/Hynix and outlook of recovery in 2H in-line with our view CY4Q24 results: Directions of NAND pricing, bit sh ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Flash | 17 Feb 2025 15:38:42 ET │ 9 pages China Internet Positive Implications From Industry Leaders Meeting With President Xi CITI'S TAKE We see some positive implications from the highly discussed meeting between President Xi and leading industry executives held in Beijing on Feb 17th. 1) The decision to call for such a meeting likely indicates the importance of technology innovation and the contribution of private enterprises to the development and growth of China's economy; ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 17 February 2025 Commodity Economic Comment Economics Trump policies drive more commodity market fragmentation ◆ A consequence of rapidly shifting and uncertain US trade policies under the new Trump administration is that commodity markets are fragmenting. This has been most vivid recently for metals such as copper, aluminium and gold, where a wide premium has opened up between US and offshore prices. It reflects that businesses are seeking commodity supply certainty, but that t ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 February 16, 2025 04:10 AM GMT M Update HK/China Transportation & Infrastructure | Asia Pacific Week in Review (Issue 7-25) Week in review: BCIA FY24 preliminary results; soft post-CNY container shipping spot market . BCIA miss on DTA reversal: BCIA announced a net loss of Rmb1.35-1.65bn, much worse than the market expectation of a Rmb500-700mn loss. We view this result as a minor negative, as a significant increase in tax expense was a negative surprise. We estimate ~Rmb2bn cum ...

Summary of TSMC Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Manufacturing Key Points and Arguments 1. Expansion of US Fabs - TSMC plans to expand its Arizona facilities to include up to 6 Fabs over the next several years, with 3 already announced (Fab 1 - N4, Fab 2 - likely N3, and Fab 3 - A16/A14) - Potential for an additional Fab 5 and an advanced packaging Fab 4, leading to a capex exceeding $100 billion in the US over the next 5-10 years, significantly higher than the $65 billion announced for Fab 1-3 in April 2024 [4][8] 2. Support from the US Chips Act - Continued support from the Chips Act, particularly in the form of Investment Tax Credits (ITC), is crucial for TSMC's expansion plans - The ITC, which credits back 25% of qualified capex, is deemed more important than upfront grants due to TSMC's healthy free cash flow position [4][8] 3. Tariff Threats - President Trump has threatened tariffs of 25-100% on semiconductor exports to the US, which could significantly impact TSMC and its customers - TSMC's direct exports to the US are minimal (7% of Taiwan's US exports), but indirect exports could have a larger economic impact - TSMC is expected to pass on tariffs to customers, but this could lead to cost inflation and negatively affect unit growth [4][8] 4. R&D Expansion in the US - TSMC may consider minor R&D expansions in the US, similar to its operations in Japan, but centralized R&D in Taiwan remains a key differentiator - Close cooperation between R&D and manufacturing is essential for leading-edge process ramp, which is challenging to achieve overseas [5][6] 5. Joint Ventures and Acquisitions with Intel - Speculation exists about TSMC participating in a joint venture with Intel or acquiring Intel Fabs, but TSMC management has indicated this is not a preferred route due to differences in Fab layouts and organizational culture - Such actions would require strong financial subsidies and commitments from the US government [6][8] 6. Sharing Process Know-How with Intel - Proposals to share TSMC's process know-how with Intel are considered unlikely, as TSMC is expected to protect its intellectual property vigorously [6] 7. Stock Price Implications - TSMC's stock is expected to react neutrally to positive announcements regarding US capacity expansion, with potential dilution in gross margins that should diminish over time - Any joint venture or operational control of Intel Fabs is likely to be viewed negatively in the short term due to significant P&L impacts [9][10] 8. Investment Thesis and Valuation - TSMC is rated as "Overweight" with a price target of NT$1,500, supported by strong growth levers from its near-monopoly position in AI accelerators and ongoing technology leadership - Risks include potential market share losses to competitors like Samsung and a challenging foundry competitive landscape [10][11][13] Additional Important Content - TSMC's pricing power is expected to lead to strong gross margin expansion, and the company is likely to become a larger customer for Intel in the next 3-5 years [11][12]