Asia Pacific Equity Research 20 February 2025 Correction (See disclosures for details) BYD- H&A Lift PTs to HK$600/Rmb560 on expectations that BYD will become the 'Toyota' of the global EV marketplace Share price strength set to continue: We have spoken to nearly 200 investors over the past one week on calls and in meetings following placing BYD on Positive Catalyst Watch on 7 Feb (here) and the company's reverse roadshow where we had the chance to test drive BYD's latest models (here). All in all, we belie ...

A c t i o n | 20 Feb 2025 16:33:13 ET │ 22 pages Alibaba Group Holding Stepped-up Capex Spend to Capture AI & Cloud Inflection Growth CITI'S TAKE FY3Q25 result marks a pivotal change of sentiment with CMR reaccelerated to +9% yoy and TTG EBITA returned to positive 2% yoy growth, AIDC targets to turn quarterly profitable in FY2026 and stepped-up capex investment to capture the inflection point of AI transformation era. Being the Asia No. 1 and world No. 4 cloud service provider and having developed the propr ...

February 20, 2025 01:13 AM GMT China Express | Asia Pacific Market Analysis for January 2025 Key Takeaways Volume – All players achieved YoY growth despite an earlier CNY; STO replaced Yunda to be industry No.3: SF outperformed with 16% YoY volume growth thanks to more stable service during CNY, in our view. STO outperformed Tongda peers with 12% YoY volume growth, replacing Yunda to be the third-largest player in China express industry. Yunda underperformed with 3% YoY volume growth. YTO's volume grew 6% Y ...

Equity Research China Technology 20 February 2025 China Technology CBO - China Brief Overnight - 2/20/2025 DeepSeek denies speculation that it is considering outside funding; Five ministries issue three-year plan to promote consumption of automobiles, electronic products and home appliances; BYD was the best-selling EV brand in major Latin American markets in 2024 Our daily product rounds up key stories from the Chinese language media overnight, focusing on developments in the technology space. See our late ...

Flash | 20 Feb 2025 10:55:55 ET │ 11 pages China Battery Materials Lithium into 3rd week of Feb – Looming pressure on ASP amid rising inventory CITI'S TAKE Lithium prices surprisingly remained largely flattish WoW last week, hovering at ~Rmb76k/t for battery-grade, even as we saw the supply was scheduled to come back online as expected (+17% WoW). We believe the transactions in the spot market should be limited, and downstream players are holding a wait-and-see attitude, evidenced by (1) downstream inventor ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the small-cap perspective in tech-related subindustries, particularly semiconductor-related companies [3][4] - The overall industry view is categorized as "In-Line" by Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities [1] Semiconductor Industry Insights - There is no change in earnings growth trends at semiconductor testing and cutting-edge package companies [5] - Orders for electrical power equipment have been increasing due to production capacity constraints and future delivery projects, with demand driven by the replacement of aging equipment, renewable energy, data centers, and power grid battery systems [7] - The market for front-end semiconductor processing equipment (SPE) is dull in 2025, with risks including a slowdown in China and ongoing adjustments in SPE for power chips [8] - Strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) in DRAM SPE is noted, but a cautious outlook is maintained for commodity DRAM [8] - A recovery in NAND is observed after a prolonged downturn, with advancements in cryogenic etching and hybrid bonding technologies [8] - Demand for photoresist-related materials remains strong, particularly for EUV applications [8] - The timing of recovery in automotive and industrial equipment demand has been delayed, with strong demand noted only for testing-related components [9] Market Forecasts - Forecasts for various end markets indicate fluctuations in unit sales, with notable projections for servers, PCs, smartphones, and light vehicles [10] - For example, smartphone sales are projected to decline from 1,206 million units in 2023 to 1,164 million in 2024, before recovering to 1,283 million by 2026 [10] - The forecast for electric vehicles (BEV) shows significant growth, with projections increasing from 8 million units in 2024 to 14 million by 2026 [10] Stock Price Trends - Stock price trends for semiconductor equipment-related companies are tracked, with various companies showing different performance metrics [12][15][21] - The Nikkei average serves as a benchmark for comparison, with specific companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML highlighted for their stock performance [13][14] Company-Specific Performance - Detailed sales performance data for specific companies in the semiconductor supply chain is provided, showing year-over-year changes in sales [27][28] - For instance, Shinko Electric Industries reported a significant decline in plastic packaging sales, dropping by 40% in one quarter [28] - Other companies like AJINOMOTO and Taiyo Holdings also show varying performance metrics, indicating a mixed outlook across the sector [28] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a complex landscape with both challenges and opportunities, particularly in the context of evolving technologies and market demands [8][9] - Continuous monitoring of demand trends, stock performance, and company-specific earnings will be crucial for investors looking to navigate this sector effectively [8][27]

Summary of J.P. Morgan's North America Commodities Research Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil and Commodities - **Date**: February 20, 2025 Key Points Oil Demand and Supply Dynamics - Global oil demand increased by **1.4 million barrels per day (mbd)** in February, averaging **103.4 mbd** through February 19, 2025, which is **400 kbd** short of the projected **1.8 mbd** rise for the month [5][6][12] - OPEC is considering delaying monthly supply increases scheduled for April, indicating a cautious approach due to anticipated growth in non-OPEC+ supply [5][6][12] - The Ukrainian drone attack on the Kropotkinskaya pumping station is expected to reduce crude oil flow from Kazakhstan by **30%**, leading to a **360 kbd** drop in Kazakh oil exports [5][6][12] Inventory and Stock Analysis - CPC crude stocks have remained steady at **2.5 million barrels (mb)** since February 11, 2025, despite the disruption [6][12] - OECD commercial oil stocks recorded a net draw of **4.5 mb** in the second week of February [6][12] - The rerouting of Kazakh crude oil to Baltic Sea ports is expected to draw down Europe’s commercial crude storage by **10.5 mb** over a **60-day period** [5][6][12] Regional Insights - In the U.S., diesel cracks have retreated from recent highs due to lower product exports to Latin America, while gasoline consumption is expected to rise from **8.3 mbd** to above **9 mbd** during the peak travel season [5][6][12] - Four economies reported oil consumption statistics, with notable declines in Portugal and France, while India showed a significant increase of **170 kbd** year-over-year in January [5][6][12] Price Movements - Oil prices are on track to end the week higher, with global crude prices rising by **$1.60-1.80 per barrel** since last Friday's close, driven by supply uncertainty and frigid weather in the U.S. [5][6][12] - Brent crude has advanced to nearly **$77 per barrel**, aligning with the fair value estimate for February [5][6][12] Future Projections - The ongoing cold weather in the U.S. and increased industrial activity in China are expected to help close the gap in oil demand projections for February [5][6][12] - Gasoline cracks are projected to average **$22 per barrel** in Q2 2025, up **$2 per barrel** from current levels [5][6][12] Additional Insights - The Atyrau-Samara pipeline has a spare capacity of **157 kbd**, while the Kazakh-China pipeline has a total capacity of **400 kbd**, indicating potential for rerouting crude oil flows [5][6][12] - Despite the BTC pipeline having considerable spare capacity, tanker bottlenecks in the Caspian Sea may restrict substantial transfers [5][6][12] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan North America Commodities Research call, focusing on oil demand, supply dynamics, inventory levels, and price movements.

February 20, 2025 10:15 AM GMT Multi-Industry | North America US Reshoring on Humanoids Adding juice to the $10T US Reshoring opportunity - A pathway to Humanoids lowers the US Mfg cost curve, drives more protectionism & introduces Power supply as a competitive advantage. Exhibit 1: We see a MSD cost delta between US Mfg and China exports landed in the US - a cost difference that can be offset with ~20% Humanoid penetration Source: Morgan Stanley Research, US Census Bureau, China Bureau of Nat'l Statistics ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research February 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Humanoid Robots: Hype or the Next Frontier? Karen Li, CFA AC Head of HK Equity Research, Head of Asia Infra, Industrials and Transport +852 2800 8589 karen.yy.li@jpmor ...

February 20, 2025 02:43 PM GMT Asia Technology | Asia Pacific Memory – False Dawn, No Recovery HBM revisions – more excess capacity. We update our HBM TAM analysis with the latest GPU/ASIC shipment numbers as well as improved yield rates from suppliers. We forecast 2025e HBM TAM at US$29bn while current capacity implies 66% oversupply at full capacity. Our previous CoWoS implied GPU shipment scenario is our bull case, which implies a US$81bn TAM in 2027e and our bear case assumes more aggressive pricing com ...