Contents EM Flows Weekly Feast or Famine? Thanksgiving brings continued outflows for EM bond funds EM Flows Weekly includes fund flow data, non-resident EM portfolio flow data, weekly retail fund flow models, EM-dedicated retail bond fund beta trackers, and historical cross-asset fund flows. • EM bond flows were -$2.7bn (-0.72% of weekly AUM, ↓ from -$2.5bn); EM equity flows were -$4.3bn (-0.33% of weekly AUM,↑ from -$6.6bn). • YTD flows to EM bonds and equities: -$24.7bn and -$23.8bn, respectively. • EM Bo ...

Summary of Meituan (3690.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Meituan (3690.HK) - **Industry**: E-commerce and Logistics in China Key Financial Highlights - **3Q24 Performance**: - Revenue increased by **22% year-over-year (yoy)** to **Rmb93.6 billion** [2] - Adjusted EBIT rose by **196% yoy** to **Rmb12.4 billion**, exceeding expectations [2][11] - Core local commerce adjusted EBIT reached **Rmb14.6 billion**, a **44% yoy** increase [2] - New initiatives EBIT losses reduced to **Rmb-1.0 billion**, better than consensus estimates [2] Core Business Insights - **Food Delivery**: - Food delivery profitability improved, with EBIT per order higher yoy despite a seasonal decline [2] - Transaction volumes for on-demand delivery (food delivery + instashopping) grew by **15% yoy** [2] - Instashopping achieved an average of **10 million daily orders**, growing at over **3X** the rate of restaurant food delivery [7] - **In-store, Hotel & Travel (IHT)**: - In-store order volumes increased by **50% yoy** [8] - IHT gross transaction value (GTV) growth was in the mid-twenties percentage, affected by slower hotel growth and adjustments in attraction ticketing [2][8] Strategic Initiatives - **Merchant Support Measures**: - Meituan announced a **Rmb1 billion** investment to support quality restaurant development [3] - Focus on improving efficiencies in new initiatives, with other segments turning profitable [9] - **Expansion Plans**: - Plans to increase InstaMart warehouses from **30,000 to over 100,000 by 2027** [7] - Official launch of Keeta in Riyadh with ongoing investments planned into **2025** [9] Shareholder Returns - **Share Repurchases**: - Total of **HK$14.2 billion (US$1.8 billion)** in share repurchases during 3Q24, up from **US$1.4 billion** in 2Q24 [10] - Aggregate buyback of **4.2%** of total shares outstanding in the first three quarters of 2024 [10] Market Outlook and Risks - **Rating**: - Goldman Sachs maintains a **Buy** rating with a 12-month target price of **HK$212**, indicating a **25.7% upside** from current levels [11] - **Key Risks**: - Potential for increased competition impacting growth and profitability turnaround [11] - Labor cost inflation and food safety concerns could pose challenges [11] Conclusion - Meituan demonstrated strong financial performance in 3Q24, driven by robust growth in food delivery and instashopping, alongside strategic investments in merchant support and expansion initiatives. The company remains committed to enhancing shareholder value through share repurchases while navigating potential market risks.

29 Nov 2024 05:31:44 ET │ 9 pages China Auto Manufacturers China-Mobileye Tracker CITI'S TAKE We track NEV models adopting Mobileye EyeQ4/Q5 ADAS chip, with the sales of NEV equipped with MBLY ADAS chip reaching 592,873/461,982 units in FY23/10M24 (+54.1%/+1.0% YoY) as shown in Figure 2. We observe the sales of NEV models adopting MBLY ADAS chip as % of total NEV PV in China dipped to 5.0% in 10M24, from 6.7% in FY23. By brand, Volkswagen / Zeekr / BMW / GWM Ora contributed significant shares of 32.2%/23.4% ...

Flash | 29 Nov 2024 08:02:13 ET │ 9 pages China Materials Takeaways from Copper Expert Call with SMM CITI'S TAKE We hosted an Expert Call on Nov 29th with Mr. Ye Jianhua, Chief Copper Analyst at Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) on copper market update. Mr. Ye expects copper price in 2025E to average US$9,800-9,900/t with a price movement range of approximately US$8,500/t to US$10,000/t+. He believes copper price may be higher in 2H25E than 1H25E due to fiscal stimulus packages and expansionary monetary policies ...

November 29, 2024 10:00 AM GMT IndusInd Bank | Asia Pacific Is risk reward now attractive? | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------|------------| | | | | | What's Changed | | | | IndusInd Bank (INBK.NS) | From | To | | Price Target | Rs1,400.00 | Rs1,150.00 | The stock price has fallen 30% post-earnings owing to MFI asset quality, where trends continue to weaken, driving more EPS cuts. We detail risk reward – while not bad, risks are towards the downside. We continue to apply 30% bear cas ...

J P M O R G A N Global Commodities The Week in Commodities Global Commodities Research 29 November 2024 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

M Foundation Asia EM Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific November 29, 2024 05:56 AM GMT Flows & Positioning Guide In October, GEM long-only managers continued to reduce underweights in China & Malaysia, and added to Brazil overweight, funded by adding underweights in India & Taiwan and cutting Korea overweight. In the week ended November 27, 2024, EM equity funds had outflows led by China and India. EM weekly flows – Outflows continued, led by China and India: EM equity funds recorded US$0.8bn outflows for the w ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 29 November 2024 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China autos in Mexico under Trump 2.0 Takeaways from expert call with Mexico's former chief negotiator for USMCA | --- | --- | |------------------------------------ ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **A-share market** in China, with a particular emphasis on investor sentiment and market conditions for 2025 [3][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Declining Investor Sentiment**: A-share sentiment has dropped significantly, with the weighted and simple Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) decreasing by 8 percentage points to 77% and 7 percentage points to 66%, respectively, compared to the previous week [4]. - **Earnings Pressure**: There is a persistent downward pressure on earnings, leading to a more challenging equity market outlook for 2025. The consensus earnings estimate revision breadth is also trending downward [3][11]. - **Market Volatility**: The market is expected to remain volatile due to a mixed macroeconomic backdrop, including potential tariffs from the U.S. on major trading partners, which could impact the Chinese market [6][11]. - **Net Inflows**: Southbound net inflows into the A-share market continued for the 38th consecutive week, totaling **US$2.6 billion** during the week of November 21-27, with year-to-date inflows reaching **US$89.6 billion** [5]. Important Metrics and Data - **Average Daily Turnover**: The average daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, Equity Futures, and Northbound decreased by 10%, 11%, 17%, and 17%, respectively, during the week of November 21-27 compared to the previous cycle [4]. - **PMI Expectations**: The official manufacturing PMI is expected to remain steady at **50.1** in November, indicating continued expansion [6]. - **Housing Market Trends**: The housing market remains muted, with October housing prices showing a softer month-on-month drop, although land sales are weak, reflecting low developer confidence [6]. Strategic Recommendations - **Preference for A-shares**: The company recommends a preference for the A-share market over offshore markets due to its relative insensitivity to geopolitical uncertainties and direct liquidity support from the People's Bank of China [12]. - **Investment Strategy for 2025**: Key trades include buying more A-shares, focusing on stocks with better earnings and shareholder return outlooks, and avoiding stocks exposed to tariffs or supply chain risks [12]. Additional Considerations - **Geopolitical Risks**: The potential for further escalation in U.S.-China tensions and the impact of a weaker currency on the equity risk premium are highlighted as significant risks for the market [11]. - **Profit-Taking**: There may be profit-taking in the near term due to relatively good performance year-to-date, which could add to market pressures [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook for the A-share market in China.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the global rates market, focusing on the fiscal outlook in the United States, Canada, Europe, and the UK, as well as implications for monetary policy and investment strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US Fiscal Outlook**: The narrative around the US fiscal outlook has shown volatility, but there is skepticism regarding the bullish stance on long-end yields due to a structurally sticky deficit trajectory, which supports higher terminal rates over time [2][4][7]. 2. **Market Reactions to Labor News**: Labor market news is expected to be more consequential for market tone than fiscal risks in the near term, with the upcoming jobs report being particularly significant [2][7]. 3. **Canadian Economic Growth**: Recent GDP data indicates that Canada is growing below potential, with expectations for a 50 basis point cut from the Bank of Canada due to tariff risks and a growth-friendly reaction function [11]. 4. **European Central Bank (ECB) Policy**: The ECB's stance has shifted towards a more gradual approach to rate cuts, with recent comments suggesting limited room for aggressive easing. This has led to a rally in Bunds, which are viewed as undervalued compared to other European macro assets [12][14]. 5. **UK Monetary Policy**: The UK market is pricing in a continued richening of 2025 rates, with expectations for Gilt yields to fall to around 4% by year-end 2025, despite mixed signals from economic data [17][18]. 6. **Risks in OATs**: OATs are experiencing volatility due to political negotiations regarding the 2025 budget, with expectations for a wider deficit than government projections, leading to a recommendation for an underweight position in OATs compared to Bunds [15]. Additional Important Content 1. **Quantitative Tightening (QT) Risks**: The end of debt limit suspension poses challenges for accurately gauging reserve demand, complicating the QT endgame. The potential adjustment of the RRP rate is also discussed, which could impact repo rates and the economics of swap spreads [8]. 2. **Inflation Trends**: Market-implied inflation rates are drifting lower, which is boosting real rates. This trend is viewed as unsustainable, and there are recommendations to stay long on 5y Bunds with a revised target of 1.75% [14]. 3. **Global Yield Forecasts**: The forecast for G10 10-year yields indicates a range of expectations across different currencies, with the US expected to maintain a yield around 4.25% by the end of 2025 [27]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: Specific investment strategies include buying 6m5y A/A+30/A+60 payer fly, receiving Jan 2025 FOMC OIS, and owning CORM5 in Canada, reflecting a cautious but opportunistic approach to current market conditions [25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the fiscal and monetary dynamics across major economies and their implications for investment strategies.