Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 06, 2025 05:00 PM ET Company Participants Matt Ramsay - Corporate VP - Financial Strategy & IRLisa Su - Chair & CEOJean Hu - Executive VP, CFO & TreasurerJoshua Buchalter - Director - Equity ResearchTimothy Arcuri - Managing DirectorHarlan Sur - Executive Director - Equity ResearchThomas O'Malley - Director - Equity ResearchCJ Muse - Senior Managing Director Conference Call Participants Aaron Raikers - AnalystVivek Arya - AnalystStacy Rasgon - AnalystRo ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter revenue increased by 36% year over year to $7.4 billion, exceeding consensus estimates [5][28] - Net income rose by 55%, driven by a higher percentage of data center product sales and a richer Ryzen processor mix [6][30] - Gross margin expanded for the fifth consecutive quarter, reaching 54%, up 140 basis points from the previous year [29][30] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - Data Center segment revenue grew by 57% year over year to $3.7 billion, driven by increased server CPU share and strong demand from hyperscalers [6][31] - Client and Gaming segment revenue increased by 28% year over year to $2.9 billion, with client revenue specifically growing by 68% [19][32] - Embedded segment revenue decreased by 3% year over year to $823 million, with expectations of gradual recovery [24][33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The number of EPYC powered cloud instances activated by enterprise customers more than doubled year over year [8] - Demand for AMD's latest generation AI PC processors increased by over 50% quarter on quarter [20] - The gaming revenue decreased by 30% year over year, primarily due to lower semi-custom sales, although demand signals for 2025 have strengthened [22][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding investments in product and technology roadmaps, go-to-market initiatives, and AI software solutions [26][27] - The launch of the fifth generation EPYC processors is expected to drive continued share gains in the data center market [10][11] - The acquisition of ZT Systems aims to enhance the company's capabilities in providing rack-level AI solutions [16][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering strong double-digit revenue growth in 2025 despite macroeconomic uncertainties [26][35] - The company anticipates a significant impact from new export license requirements, estimating a $1.5 billion revenue reduction for the full year [35][36] - Management highlighted the strength of their differentiated product portfolio and execution as key factors for future growth [6][26] Other Important Information - The company completed the acquisition of ZT Systems on March 31, enhancing its systems design expertise [16][34] - The first production shipments of the fifth generation EPYC processors are expected in the second half of 2025 [11][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Drivers of upside in Q1 and guidance for Q2 growth by segment - Management noted strong performance across client, gaming, and data center businesses, with particular strength in desktop performance and ASPs [41][44] Question: Performance of the Instinct family in Q1 and outlook for the second half - Management indicated that the data center GPU business performed in line with expectations, with high customer interest in the upcoming MI350 launch [49][50] Question: Clarification on data center GPU growth expectations - Management confirmed that the data center GPU business is expected to grow strong double digits despite the headwinds from export controls [83][84] Question: Inventory increase reasons - The increase in inventory was primarily to support strong client and server ramp, as well as the upcoming data center GPU ramp [57][58] Question: Feedback on MI400 series and addressing deployment challenges - Management expressed high enthusiasm for the MI400 series and emphasized the importance of planning and collaboration with customers to address deployment challenges [61][62] Question: Client business growth expectations and market share - Management highlighted strong performance in the client business, particularly in high-end notebooks and desktops, with expectations for continued share gains [80][92]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for the first quarter was $206 million, an increase of 11% year over year, and at the high end of the company's range [5] - Adjusted net income rose to $17 million from $2 million last year, while adjusted EBITDA increased to $30.7 million from $17.6 million, representing about 15% of sales [5][12] - Gross profit increased by 28% year over year to $60.8 million, with gross margin expanding to 29.5% from 25.7% [12] - Adjusted operating income was $22.6 million, or 11% of sales, compared to $5.5 million and 3% in the prior year [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Aerospace segment achieved record revenue of $191.4 million, up 17% year over year, with adjusted operating profit of $31 million and an operating margin of 16.2% [8][15] - The Test segment reported sales of $14.6 million, down from the previous year, with an adjusted operating loss of $1.5 million due to a $1.9 million adjustment related to a long-term contract [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter bookings were strong at $280 million, yielding a book-to-bill ratio of 1.36, with a significant order of $57 million for the FLRAA development effort [6][7] - The backlog reached an all-time high, indicating strong future demand [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on margin expansion, free cash flow generation, and continuous improvement, with plans for capital expenditures between $35 million and $50 million for the year [21][22] - The company is evaluating its financing structure and considering value-creating initiatives, including acquisitions and share repurchases [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the macroeconomic environment, particularly concerning potential tariff impacts, estimating obligations between $10 million and $20 million [24][25] - The company is maintaining its revenue forecast for 2025 at $820 million to $860 million, reflecting a 6% increase from 2024, while acknowledging both upside potential and downside risks [23][24] Other Important Information - Operating cash flow improved significantly to $20.6 million from $2 million in the prior year, driven by stronger cash earnings and efficient working capital management [18][19] - Long-term debt net of cash was reduced to $134.2 million, with total liquidity at approximately $194 million [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: How much mitigation can be done to offset the tariff impact? - Management indicated it is difficult to quantify timing without knowing the exact tariffs, but they are considering various alternatives [28][30] Question: Does the review of each business indicate restructuring or strategic changes? - Management stated it could involve any of those aspects, emphasizing the need to evaluate product lines and initiatives [32][33] Question: What are the expectations regarding Boeing's production needs? - Management has not heard of major changes from Boeing and is encouraged by their production rate progression [35] Question: Can more detail be provided on demand growth from airlines versus OEMs? - Demand has been strong from both sides, with commercial transport sales being roughly 50% line fit and 50% aftermarket [43] Question: Is the $1.9 million charge contained? - Management acknowledged potential risks and is conducting a review to assess the situation [46] Question: What is the worst-case scenario for the UK legal fees? - Management believes the worst-case scenario for legal fees is around $7.2 million, with the overall situation being better than initially feared [51][52]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted property EBITDA of $223.4 million at Wynn Las Vegas on operating revenue of $625.3 million, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 35.7% [17] - Total casino revenues increased by 4% year-over-year, despite the absence of the Super Bowl in 2025 [12] - Adjusted property EBITDA for Macau operations was $252.1 million on operating revenue of $865.9 million, yielding an EBITDA margin of 29.1% [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Las Vegas, adjusted EBITDA was down approximately $11 million when adjusting for hold, with slot business showing strong performance [12][18] - Encore Boston Harbor generated $57.5 million of adjusted property EBITDA on revenue of $209.2 million, with an EBITDA margin of 27.5% [19] - Macau's mass drop was up year-over-year, while VIP turnover increased significantly, although lower VIP hold impacted EBITDA by over $38 million [14][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Las Vegas, RevPAR was slightly up from 2024, with slot handle also increasing [10] - Macau's mass drop during Golden Week was up from the previous year, with full hotel occupancy reported [11] - The company noted that international visitation to Las Vegas is currently at 9% of room nights, which can be backfilled easily [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maximizing EBITDA and maintaining a healthy margin profile amidst competitive pressures in Macau [14] - The opening of the Gourmet Pavilion Food Hall at Wynn Palace has driven incremental visitation and revenue [15] - The company is committed to stock buybacks, having repurchased $200 million in Q1 and an additional $100 million in Q2 [16][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged uncertainty in the operating environment due to tariffs but noted that the business in Vegas and Macau is holding up well [11] - The company is prepared for various scenarios and has a playbook ready to address potential impacts on demand [11] - Management expressed confidence in the future, highlighting the upcoming property opening and the strength of the business [16] Other Important Information - The company plans to spend between $250 million to $300 million on CapEx in 2025, including concession-related commitments [21] - The liquidity position remains strong with $3.2 billion in global cash and revolver availability as of March 31 [21] - The company is focused on returning capital to shareholders, with a proposed increase in dividends and ongoing share repurchases [22][23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in promotions and discounts in Las Vegas - Management confirmed that promotions correlate strongly with ADR, and the Super Bowl comparison influenced the observed changes [26] Question: CapEx deployment cadence - Management indicated that CapEx will follow the usual construction curve, deploying funds over the remainder of the year and into next year [27] Question: International visitation impact on Las Vegas - Management noted that high-end visitation remains stable, while international visitation is currently at 9% of room nights, which can be easily backfilled [32] Question: Competitive environment in Macau - Management described the competitive landscape as stable but noted the importance of service quality and product offerings to remain competitive [42][46] Question: Development opportunities in New York and Japan - Management is prepared to submit proposals for New York and is open to opportunities in Japan, provided the conditions are favorable [53][67] Question: CapEx projects on hold - The majority of the delayed CapEx is related to the Encore Tower remodel, with management emphasizing that the project is not canceled but rescheduled [58][75] Question: OpEx management with new openings - Management stated that OpEx per day remained flat year-over-year, attributing this to careful management and economies in other areas [20][82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted property EBITDA of $223.4 million for Wynn Las Vegas on operating revenue of $625.3 million, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 35.7% [16] - Total casino revenues increased by 4% year-over-year, excluding the Super Bowl impact [11] - Adjusted property EBITDA for Macau operations was $252.1 million on operating revenue of $865.9 million, with an EBITDA margin of 29.1% [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Las Vegas, slot volumes increased by approximately 3%, contributing to overall revenue growth [12] - Encore Boston Harbor generated $57.5 million in adjusted property EBITDA on revenue of $209.2 million, with an EBITDA margin of 27.5% [17] - Macau's mass drop was up year-over-year, while VIP turnover increased significantly, although lower VIP hold impacted EBITDA by about $38 million [13][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Las Vegas, RevPAR for April was slightly up from 2024, with healthy group activity and slot handle [9] - Macau's mass drop during Golden Week showed improvement compared to the previous year, with full hotel occupancy [10] - The company noted that international visitation to Las Vegas is currently at 9% of room nights, which can be backfilled easily [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maximizing EBITDA and maintaining a healthy margin profile despite competitive pressures in Macau [13] - The opening of the Gourmet Pavilion Food Hall at Wynn Palace has driven increased visitation, with 2,400 additional daily restaurant covers [14] - The company is committed to returning capital to shareholders, having repurchased $200 million in stock during Q1 and an additional $100 million in Q2 [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged uncertainty in the operating environment due to tariffs but noted that the business in Vegas and Macau is holding up well [10] - The company remains optimistic about future demand, particularly in group and convention business, despite short booking windows [9][34] - Management expressed confidence in the upcoming Wynn on Marjan Islands project, viewing it as a compelling development opportunity [15] Other Important Information - The company expects total CapEx spend in 2025 to range between $250 million to $300 million, with a significant portion related to concession commitments [20] - The company has a strong liquidity position with $3.2 billion in global cash and revolver availability as of March 31 [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in promotions and discounts in Las Vegas - Management indicated that the observed changes correlate strongly with ADR, particularly influenced by the Super Bowl comparison [25] Question: Thoughts on international inbound and VIP exposure - Management noted that high-end visitation remains stable, while international visitation has decreased but does not significantly impact the business [32] Question: Competitive environment in Macau - Management described the competitive landscape as stable but emphasized the importance of service quality and product offerings to remain competitive [44][108] Question: CapEx projects on hold due to tariffs - The majority of the delayed CapEx is related to the Encore Tower remodel, with a total of $375 million impacted [59] Question: Group business outlook for 2026 - Management reported strong demand for group bookings in 2026, attributing it to large events scheduled for that year [62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - High-speed data (HSD) revenue decreased by 0.8% year over year to $105.4 million [6][11] - Total revenue for the quarter decreased by 7.1% to $150 million, primarily due to declines in video and telephony revenue [11] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 13.8% year over year to $76.7 million, with a record adjusted EBITDA margin of 51.1% [6][11] - Total cash at the end of the quarter was $28.8 million, with total outstanding debt of $1.03 billion and a leverage ratio of 3.4 times [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company passed an additional 13,700 homes in greenfield markets, bringing the total to 75,600 homes passed [5][7] - Penetration rates in greenfield markets remained strong at 16.3% [7] - The traditional video business saw a 38% decrease in subscribers, now at 48,900 [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The 2025 Edge Out Vintage passed 1,500 new homes with a penetration rate close to 27% [8] - The 2024 Edge Out Vintage increased its penetration rate to 44.6%, while the 2023 vintage increased to 31.4% [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on fiber to the home expansion initiatives while maintaining cost discipline [10] - The strategy includes migrating customers off the video platform and aligning with YouTube TV, which has seen significant growth [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted strong momentum in greenfield markets and emphasized the importance of cost management [5][10] - The company anticipates continued challenges in the traditional video business but expects growth in greenfield areas [10][27] Other Important Information - The company plans to spend between $60 million to $70 million on greenfield initiatives in 2025, despite a slower start due to weather issues [13][22] - Unlevered adjusted free cash flow for the first quarter was $37.8 million, an increase from the previous quarter [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Capital spending pace and new Greenfield homes passed - The company plans to spend $60 million to $70 million for the year, with more spending expected in the latter half [22] Question: Competitive landscape and net adds - Competition remains similar, with low churn aided by simplified pricing, and penetration rates in greenfield markets outperforming expectations [24][26] Question: Mobile products and their impact - Mobile offerings are not significant drivers for acquisition or churn reduction, with a focus on core broadband and YouTube TV services [28]

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