（编辑 丛可心） 证券日报网1月7日讯 ，齐翔腾达在接受调研者提问时表示，从上市公司披露的三季度在建工程数据中 不难发现，多数企业的资本支出呈现收缩态势，从侧面折射出行业整体正处于产能消化与投资审慎阶 段，新建及扩建项目进度明显放缓，企业更倾向于聚焦现有产能优化与资本开支管控。2026年，公司将 继续秉持审慎稳健的资本开支策略，重点聚焦现有装置的技术改造与高附加值产品转产，在降低综合生 产成本、提升装置效能的基础上，进一步强化产线柔性生产能力与市场响应速度，以适配细分领域需求 的结构性变化。同时，公司将稳步推进齐鲁科力催化新材料项目建设进度。该项目建成后，将显著提升 公司在煤化工、石油化工催化剂领域的技术实力与市场竞争力，助力催化剂产品的国产替代，为公司进 一步降低对外采购成本、提升产业链自主可控能力提供有力支撑。 ...

宏观层面，国家发展改革委与财政部关于2026年实施大规模设备更新的政策导向，虽然在短期内难以直 接转化为焦煤的实物需求，但对市场预期的引导作用不容忽视。工信部在部署2026年重点工作时提出深 入整治"内卷式"竞争，超产核查与产能优化也将为焦煤提供政策支撑。JM2605合约所承载的是对2026 年二季度宏观经济复苏和终端需求回暖的定价，当现货价格跌至成本线附近，尤其是跌破进口煤的进口 成本时，估值修复的动力将显著增强。目前盘面价格所反映的偏弱预期已经较为充分，继续单边下行的 空间正在被成本支撑和政策预期压缩。 焦煤现货价格的连续下调，正在加速市场出清的过程。这种出清虽然痛苦，但却是市场见底的必要条 件。我们预计，在经历1月上旬的惯性下探和情绪释放后，钢厂随着利润因原料下跌而得到部分修复， 复产的积极性将有所回升。铁水产量的止跌反弹，将是焦煤市场的关键转折点。 2025年焦煤期货价格波动显著，整体呈现先抑后扬再震荡整理的走势。进入2026年，作为黑色产业链上 游核心品种，焦煤现货价格持续承压，市场情绪保持谨慎。与此同时，市场环境持续演变，焦炭第四轮 提降已全面落地，钢厂铁水产量小幅回升，这些新变化均对焦煤期货走势 ...

另外，值得关注的是，国内产业政策方面对工业金属整体仍呈积极影响。26日国家发展改革委产业司在《大力推动传统产业优化提升》的文章中提到，对氧 化铝、铜冶炼等强资源约束型产业，关键在于强化管理、优化布局，特别是"'十五五'时期，鼓励大型骨干企业实施兼并重组，提升规模化、集团化水平， 提高产业竞争力"的表述，提振了市场对氧化铝产能优化的预期。消息公布后，氧化铝期价大幅拉升，一度触及涨停板。不过，当前氧化铝供应端实际并未 出现明显收缩，"强预期"和"弱现实"的博弈持续，或预示着氧化铝价格的低位震荡暂仍将延续。 新华财经北京12月26日电 国内商品期货市场12月26日大面积上涨，其中铂主力合约涨超9%，碳酸锂主力合约涨超8%，沪银主力合约涨超6%，氧化铝主力 合约涨超5%，沪铜、国际铜、对二甲苯主力合约涨超3%，苯乙烯、PTA、BR橡胶、菜粕、棉花、短纤、瓶片主力合约涨超2%。下跌品种中，钯主力合约 跌超2%，多晶硅、焦炭、焦煤主力合约跌超1%。 截至26日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1599.42点，较前一交易日上涨28.36点，涨幅1.81%；中证商品期货指数收报2207.01点，较前一交易日上涨 39.13 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The PVC industry is rated as "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints - In 2026, PVC may continue to face inventory accumulation, but the magnitude will narrow, and the toughest period for the industry may have passed [3][71] - The cost side will provide a relatively solid bottom - support for PVC, but the overall oversupply situation remains, restricting the upward elasticity and space of PVC prices. The main operating range of the PVC main contract in 2026 is expected to be between 4,400 yuan/ton and 5,400 yuan/ton [3][71] - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction before the Spring Festival is difficult to ease, and the post - festival spring centralized maintenance may be a key catalyst for the phased market [3][71] Summary by Directory 1. 2025 PVC Market Review - In 2025, the domestic PVC market was dominated by the core contradiction of increasing supply pressure and weakening demand, with the price center moving down again and hitting a record low in Q4. The main contract price ranged from 4,220 yuan/ton to 5,373 yuan/ton [12] - The market trend in 2025 can be divided into three stages: marginal improvement in H1 with price pressure from new capacity expectations; a strong rebound around July driven by policy expectations and coal price increases; and a return to fundamental pricing in Aug - Dec with increased supply and pessimistic export expectations [12][13] 2. Supply: PVC Industry Supply May Grow at a Low Pace in 2026 - **2.1 New Capacity Investment Pressure Will Significantly Ease in 2026** - In 2025, there was a small peak of new capacity investment, with a net increase of 220 tons/year and a capacity growth rate of about 7.4%. From January to November 2025, the total PVC output was 2,223.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [21] - In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua's 30 tons/year new device is planned to be put into production, with a capacity growth rate of only 1.0% without considering the elimination of backward capacity. There will be a structural vacuum period of new capacity investment from 2026 - 2027 [24] - **2.2 The Market Still Needs to Digest the Output Climbing Pressure of Previous New Capacities in H1** - New devices in 2025 were mostly put into production in Q3 and Q4, and their output contribution will be released in 2026. The market, especially in H1 2026, still needs to digest the real - world supply pressure [26] - **2.3 Low Profits Will Limit the Upward Elasticity of PVC Supply** - Under the long - term low - profit pattern, the number of eliminated and long - stopped PVC devices continues to increase. Since 2023, nearly 200 tons/year of capacity has been long - stopped or eliminated [29] - Currently, both single - product and chlor - alkali comprehensive profits of PVC are under pressure, but the industry maintains a high operating rate due to winter conditions. If profits do not improve, enterprises may increase maintenance in spring 2026, alleviating supply pressure [31][32] - Overall, in 2026, the PVC industry will shift to a new stage of optimizing and digesting existing capacity. With low profits, increased maintenance may offset the output climbing pressure in H1, and the output is expected to grow by about 2.5% year - on - year [36] 3. Domestic Demand: The Downturn in Real Estate Continues to Drag Down PVC Demand Recovery - In 2025, the real estate market was in structural adjustment pain. From January to November, the cumulative year - on - year decline in commercial housing sales area was 7.8%, new construction area was 20.5%, and completion area was 18.0%. The real estate industry will focus on high - quality development, and its recovery may take time, suppressing PVC demand elasticity, but the drag may ease [37] - In 2025, PVC downstream demand showed significant structural differentiation. Products highly related to construction, such as pipes and profiles, had low operating rates, while film products in consumer goods and other fields showed strong demand resilience [42] - In 2025, from January to November, the export volume of Chinese PVC floor coverings decreased by 10.9% year - on - year, affected by trade protectionism and the downturn in the developed countries' real estate cycle. In 2026, with the expected interest rate cuts in the US and Europe, PVC floor covering exports may improve marginally [46] - In 2025, from January to November, the apparent demand growth rate of PVC was - 1.8%, and the real demand growth rate was about - 1.2%. In 2026, PVC demand may end negative growth and be roughly the same as in 2025 [50] 4. Exports Will Be the Core Variable Affecting the PVC Supply - Demand Pattern in 2026 - In the context of weak demand, exports became an important way to digest domestic surplus PVC capacity. From January to November 2025, the cumulative PVC exports were 3.509 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.2%, and the export share increased from 11% to 16% [54] - **4.1 Removal of Trade Barriers in India** - India is still the largest single export market for Chinese PVC. From January to November 2025, the export volume to India was 1.421 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. India's PVC demand has great growth potential, but domestic capacity expansion is restricted by raw material supply and power resources [56][57] - In November 2025, India removed the BIS certification and anti - dumping measures for PVC. Despite possible over - drawn short - term demand, exports to India are still expected to grow at a high rate [57] - **4.2 Comprehensive Growth in Non - Indian Exports** - While exports to India increased by 14.2%, its proportion in total exports decreased from 50.9% in 2024 to 40.5%. Exports to Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa also increased significantly [63] - Overseas supply is constrained by slow short - term capacity release and the clearance of high - cost capacity. The current export growth is partly due to the "source substitution" effect of the low domestic price [63][64] - In 2026, exports will be a key variable for balancing the PVC supply - demand pattern. Although there are uncertainties in trade policies, exports still have room for growth, with an expected annual export growth rate of 20%. However, the "price - for - volume" model is fragile, and exports are more likely to play a "bottom - supporting" role [69][70] 5. Investment Recommendations - Based on supply - demand estimates, PVC may continue to face inventory accumulation in 2026, but the magnitude will narrow. The cost side will provide bottom - support, but the oversupply situation restricts price increases. The main operating range of the PVC main contract in 2026 is expected to be between 4,400 yuan/ton and 5,400 yuan/ton. Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and post - festival spring centralized maintenance may be a key market catalyst [71]

证券日报网讯12月23日，鲁阳节能（002088）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，近几年来国内同行业 企业产能建设陆续增加，陶瓷纤维低端保温类产品市场竞争不断加剧，公司针对保温类产品实行灵活的 价格机制，以保障发货量为核心目标，目前公司保温类产品发货量和价格基本稳定。未来，公司将持续 把握行业发展机遇，通过产能优化、成本管控、回款提质等举措，进一步提升经营质量与盈利水平。 ...

业内人士表示，当前南方气温下降缓慢，南方腌腊需求释放不及预期。同时，明年春节时间相对较晚， 也延迟了部分集中采购的需求，消费端对猪价的支撑力度有限。而供应端的压力仍在，由于前两年生猪 养殖效益较高，行业产能出现扩张。农业农村部的数据显示，截至今年三季度末，全国生猪存栏4.37亿 头，同比增长2.3%。前三季度全国生猪出栏5.3亿头，同比增长1.8%。截至今年10月末，全国能繁母猪 存栏3990万头，时隔17个月重回4000万头以下，但仍超过3900万头的正常保有量。 卓创资讯生猪行业高级分析师邹莹吉称："截至12月19日，监测12月样本企业日均生猪屠宰量为21.12万 头，同比增加0.37%，屠宰量增幅相对有限。前期能繁母猪存栏量处于相对高位，对应当下生猪供应充 裕。同时，养殖端正处于年底冲量阶段，进一步增加了生猪供应。" 四川：生猪价格持续低迷 养殖户补栏积极性不高 进入冬季，生猪消费一般会迎来销售旺季，价格也会逐步走高。但今年，生猪行情却出现旺季不旺的局 面，是什么原因导致猪价承压？我们先去消费端去看一下。 那么，养殖端的情况目前又是怎样的？四川是我国生猪养殖大省，继续来看记者在四川的走访。 上午九点，在 ...

央视网消息：进入冬季，生猪消费一般会迎来销售旺季，价格也会逐步走高。但今年，生猪行情却出现旺季不旺的局面，是什么原因导致猪价 承压？我们先去消费端去看一下。 早上8点，在四川江油的一处农贸市场，猪肉摊位上各类肉品摆放整齐。现在正是南方腌制腊肉、灌制香肠的季节，但不少消费者的采购量明 显缩水。 业内人士表示，当前南方气温下降缓慢，南方腌腊需求释放不及预期。同时，明年春节时间相对较晚，也延迟了部分集中采购的需求，消费端 对猪价的支撑力度有限。而供应端的压力仍在，由于前两年生猪养殖效益较高，行业产能出现扩张。农业农村部的数据显示，截至今年三季度 末，全国生猪存栏4.37亿头，同比增长2.3%。前三季度全国生猪出栏5.3亿头，同比增长1.8%。截至今年10月末，全国能繁母猪存栏3990万 头，时隔17个月重回4000万头以下，但仍超过3900万头的正常保有量。 据猪肉销售商介绍，目前五花肉的价格在9元/斤、前后腿肉的价格在8元/斤左右，相比去年同期每斤低了3—4元，但销量却不如去年同期。 卓创资讯生猪行业高级分析师邹莹吉称："截至12月19日，监测12月样本企业日均生猪屠宰量为21.12万头，同比增加0.37%，屠宰 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, there is no driving force, and the market shows a weak and volatile pattern, but winter environmental protection speculation should be vigilant. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward space of industrial silicon prices is limited, and it is cost - effective to lay out forward contracts for peak seasons at low prices. Also, industrial silicon prices are closely linked to the price fluctuations of related varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving logic of industrial silicon futures price trends will focus on factors such as the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background, supply - side production cuts due to environmental protection constraints or cost increases, and demand - side production cut expectations due to weak terminal shipments. The industry has expectations for eliminating backward production capacity, but due to the large number of private enterprises and scattered layout, there is insufficient confidence in effective capacity clearance through industry self - discipline. The power cost accounts for 30% of the production cost of industrial silicon, and coal price fluctuations affect the power cost and then the industrial silicon price. In December, there is an expected decline in the start - up rate of industrial silicon production enterprises on the supply side, and downstream polysilicon industry has production cuts, downstream silicone monomer plants have maintenance plans, while the aluminum alloy industry maintains a stable start - up rate [2] 1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - **Sales Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce industrial silicon in the future and worried about price drops during sales, the recommended hedging ratio is 20% for selling corresponding futures contracts and 20% for a combined options strategy (buying put options + selling call options) [6] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce polysilicon/silicone/aluminum alloy in the future and worried about cost increases when purchasing industrial silicon, if the product price has no correlation, the recommended hedging ratio is 30% for buying corresponding futures contracts and 10% for a combined options strategy (selling put options + buying call options); if the product price is correlated, the recommended hedging ratio is 20% for selling corresponding futures contracts and 20% for a combined futures contract strategy (buying put options + selling call options) [6] - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high industrial silicon inventories and worried about inventory depreciation due to price drops, the recommended hedging ratio is 20% for selling the main futures contract and 10% for a combined options strategy (selling call options + buying put options) [6] 2. Important Information and Events to Watch - No important information was reviewed this week [7] 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Futures Trends**: This week, the closing price of the industrial silicon futures weighted index contract on Friday was 8,677 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.15%. The trading volume was 382,100 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 38.35%, and the open interest was 407,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 lots. The month - spread between SI2602 and SI2605 was in a Contango structure, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 9,019 lots, a week - on - week increase of 400 lots. The MACD and moving averages (daily level) show a pattern of "short - position reduction and price increase", and the current price has risen from near the lower - rail of the Bollinger Band to near the middle - rail, with the bandwidth showing signs of widening. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,000 yuan/ton and the pressure level near the middle - rail of the Bollinger Band [9] - **Option Situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been fluctuating recently, indicating that the actual price fluctuation range has been gradually expanding. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has been strengthening. The PCR of option open interest has been declining, indicating that the proportion of put option open interest relative to call option open interest has decreased, and the market's bearish sentiment is gradually receding [12] - **Capital Trends**: The net short - position of key industrial silicon seats has decreased recently, indicating that some institutions are closing their short positions [14] - **Month - Spread Structure**: The term structure of industrial silicon futures shows a back structure, which is relatively stable [16] - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main industrial silicon contract is generally at a normal level [18] 3.3 Spot Data of the Silicon Industry Chain - The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions, industrial silicon powder, and downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, silicone DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged this week, except that the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.23% [20][21] 4. Valuation and Profit 4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - Since reaching the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry has been in a continuous recovery channel. The profit of the polysilicon industry is currently stable. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, while the profit level of the silicone industry is showing a warming trend [22] 5. Fundamental Analysis 5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - **Production and Start - up Rate**: The weekly production and start - up rate data of industrial silicon samples in different regions show that there are different degrees of changes. For example, the weekly production of BAIINFO's industrial silicon increased by 400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.64%, and the start - up rate of Shanghai Steel Union's industrial silicon decreased by 0.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.79% [25][27] - **Inventory**: There are various inventory data for industrial silicon in different regions and types, such as the weekly inventory of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and social inventories in ports like Kunming, Huangpu, and Tianjin [35][36] 5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - **Production and Start - up Rate**: The weekly production of domestic polysilicon decreased, with SMM's weekly production decreasing by 100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%, and BAIINFO's weekly production decreasing by 140 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%. The start - up rate also decreased, with BAIINFO's weekly start - up rate decreasing by 1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0238 [40] - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory data of domestic polysilicon shows that the total inventory is 512,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.015%, and there are also changes in the inventories of production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipts [42] 5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - **Production and Start - up Rate**: The weekly start - up rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys remained stable, with the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy unchanged at 60%, and that of secondary aluminum alloy unchanged at 59.8%. The weekly inventory of primary aluminum alloy decreased by 0.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%, and that of secondary aluminum alloy decreased by 100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51% [45] 5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 0.07 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.43% [49] 5.5 Terminal - There are data on China's total commercial housing sales area (residential + office + shops), monthly automobile production, and monthly new photovoltaic installed capacity [52]

"这是我曾经工作的地方，如今都停工六年了。"在一则关于华润雪花长春工厂的短视频里，前工厂员工张朝忍不住感慨。 2019年，华润雪花长春工厂因华润啤酒整体产能优化按下暂停键，但因多起劳动纠纷，注销流程迟迟未能落地。2025年末，一纸华润雪花啤酒（长春）有 限公司的注销公告，为这家已停产六年的老啤酒厂画上了句号。 雪花长春工厂的兴衰，几乎浓缩了华润啤酒在东北的三十年。而今，这家从东北起家的啤酒巨头，正面临比开疆拓土时更复杂的挑战，员工安置、资产处 置、历史包袱消化，每一道题都不好解。 长春工厂的转身并非孤例。据时代财经获悉，截至目前，华润啤酒在东北仍有多家淘汰工厂面临资产处置困境。 华润啤酒的这场东北"大撤退"，就像沉入水底的硬币，涟漪至今未散。值得一提的是，12月12日，华润啤酒宣布将全国总部由北京搬入深圳，进一步将资 源重心向华南倾斜。 长春工厂六年拉锯 华润啤酒的东北扩张史，绕不开雪花长春工厂的身影。 工商信息显示，华润雪花啤酒（长春）有限公司成立于2001年10月，地处吉林省农安县。但在老员工记忆中，这家工厂的历史远早于2001年。 "大概1990年那会，每次路过啤酒厂都能闻到酒糟香，那会威士龙啤酒是真好 ...

2025年12月，大连产权交易所一则第三次挂牌公告显示，雪花啤酒齐齐哈尔富区工厂土地使用权及房屋建筑物转 让价已从9月的635万元降至508万元，降价超120万元仍无人问津。同一时期，已停产六年的华润雪花长春工厂虽 于2025年末完成注销，但此前四次挂牌转让，土地及房屋建筑物转让价较首次降价超40%，仍难寻接盘方。这两 处工厂的处置困境，正是华润啤酒在东北"大撤退"后资产处置难题的缩影——截至2024年，其在全国净关闭的36 家啤酒工厂中，大量位于东北的低效产能面临"降价也卖不掉"的尴尬，而伴随产能优化产生的数亿元员工安置费 用，更让这场战略收缩充满阵痛。 这场"大撤退"的代价远超预期。从2016年到2024年，华润啤酒内地工厂数量从98家减至62家，净关闭36家，其中 仅2017-2020年就关停29家，多数位于东北三四线城市及县城。员工安置成为首要难题：2017-2020年，华润累计 支付"员工补偿及安置费用"达18.23亿元，仅2019年就支出8.26亿元；2025年上半年，仍因产能优化产生固定资产 减值和一次性员工补偿2.41亿元。即便投入巨额费用，劳动纠纷仍接踵而至——仅雪花长春工厂，2019年解散 ...